1/ Many members of the US Congress do not seem to recognize the direction of the political winds. There are over 20 million Americans with a financial stake in the success of the nascent industry being built around #Bitcoin. 10 years ago there were almost zero such people.
2/ The infrastructure bill was crafted in the hope of shearing this new economy to finance a ballooning budget proposed by the Biden administration. Instead the language of the bill would skin the industry.

You may shear a sheep many times, but skin him only once.
3/ 4 years from now there will likely be 50 to 100 million Americans with a stake in #Bitcoin. This is a bipartisan demographic that will not forget the damage being done to this nascent industry by the Biden administration, nor the Senators doing their bidding in the Senate.
4/ There is still hope for the Senate to remove the dangerously ill-advised language from the infrastructure bill, but the hour is late and hope is dwindling. All rests on whether @chuckschumer allows for a vote on amendments to fix the bill and whether Senators vote for the fix.
5/ There is only one credible fix and it is the Lummis-Wyden-Toomey amendment. Contact your Senators and let them know your support for them is contingent on getting this amendment passed.

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More from @real_vijay

31 Jul
1/ While the resumption of #Bitcoin's bull market is a cause for optimism, anyone who cares about Bitcoin should be aware that its adversaries are attempting a major attack on the Bitcoin ecosystem as you read this.

Thread 👇
2/ President Biden's infrastructure bill has had new provisions added that specifically target industry participants with onerous new legislation.

@jchervinsky has a great summary here:

3/ The earliest drafts of this legislation were far worse and I've learned that recent updates have watered the proposed changes, but make no mistake, this is still an attack on the ecosystem. It is only the vigorous pushback by industry participants that can stop this.
Read 8 tweets
21 Jul
Watching @Elon chat with @jack, @moneyball and @CathieDWood and the question about whether #bitcoin should scale at the base layer came up (Elon often brings this up). I cover this in great detail in my book The Bullish case for Bitcoin (I can send you a copy, Elon). Thread.👇
This is NOT about physics. It's about *credibility*. If it were possible to modify the base layer easily it would completely destroy the credibility of the inflation schedule.

Decentralization and the difficulty of changing Bitcoin is our prophylactic against inflation.
The block size war was the climax of this debate (one side wanting base-layer scaling for transactional throughput, the other wanting to maintain protocol immutability and decentralization).

The network split and the market voted overwhelmingly in favor of decentralization.
Read 5 tweets
26 May
1/ While there are no a priori rules for the path a monetary good will take as it is monetized, a curious pattern has emerged during the relatively brief history of Bitcoin's monetization.

Thread 👇
2/ Bitcoin's price appears to follow a fractal pattern of increasing magnitude, where each iteration of the fractal matches the classic shape of a Gartner hype cycle
3/ In his article Speculative Bitcoin Adoption/Price Theory, Michael Casey posits that the expanding Gartner hype cycles represent phases of a standard S-curve of adoption that was followed by many transformative technologies as they become commonly used in society
Read 16 tweets
7 Apr
On the eve of Coinbase's blockbuster direct listing (importantly it is NOT an IPO, meaning employees and insiders can sell their shares immediately) many are speculating that interest in #Coinbase will trigger a fresh wave up in #Bitcoin's bull market. Will it?

A thread 👇
With Coinbase reporting Q1 revenues of 1.8B with huge margins (~800m in profit) it is likely that Coinbase will be valued in the ballpark of 100 billion dollars when they become public. The question is, will this huge liquidity event transfer over to #Bitcoin?
For many unsophisticated retail (and even institutional) investors, buying into Coinbase's direct listing may seem like a good way to get exposure to the "crypto" space. Importantly, the capital allocated with this mindset will NOT be used to purchase #Bitcoin.
Read 10 tweets
6 Apr
Coinbase is going to list publicly in less than 10 days and reported blowout numbers today (~800m in profit on 1.8B on revenue).

Sounds great, but imagine how much more they'd be worth if they had held their profits in #Bitcoin instead of dollars for the last 8 years.
According to Coinbase's S1 filing, they own approximately 4486 bitcoins (compared to MicroStrategy which owns 91,579). Given how profitable Coinbase is they have been a net seller of #Bitcoin for years and years (since they naturally accumulate it through fees on trading)
It's almost as if Coinbase doesn't even believe in the industry in which they are one of the biggest players. Sad.
Read 5 tweets
5 Mar
Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has been a very common ways for institutions gets get exposure to #Bitcoin without having to think about custody or owning the underlying asset. It's currently trading as a steep discount to NAV (almost -12%). What does this mean? Thread time👇
The Grayscale Trust owns bitcoins and issues shares in proportion to the bitcoins owned. The Net Asset Value (NAV) is the value of the bitcoins owned by the trust. Investors can then buy shares in the trust as a way of getting exposure to #Bitcoin's price movements
Theoretically the value of the shares should remain proportional to the the price of #Bitcoin. However, because there is no way to arbitrage the difference in Bitcoin's price with the price of GBTC, the value of the fund can drift away from its NAV
Read 11 tweets

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