Joseph Dempsey Profile picture
Aug 11, 2021 31 tweets 25 min read Read on X
Video reportingly shows #Taliban captured Kunduz airport with #Afghanistan Air Force Mi-35 Hind attack helicopter
Location at Kunduz confirmed (36.66575, 68.91244)

14 July @planet satellite image (below) shows Mi-35 with rotor blades attached.

10 August @Maxar image confirms Mi-35 still in place yesterday but rotor blades removed - possibly to further disable it from future use. ImageImage
How it started How it’s going ImageImage
To be clear this a loss for #Afghanistan but does not equate to an operational attack helicopter for #Taliban

Though rotor blades are stored below this suggests further technical reasons airframe was left behind. Also would required trained ground & air crews to operate. Image
#Taliban reportedly shown with another non-operational #Afghanistan Air Force helicopter

#US supplied Bell MD-530F '289' was damaged in emergency landing in Bolan area, ​​Helmand province 29 July.
ImageImage
#Taliban reportedly shown at captured Shindand Air Base, Herat Province with two #Afghanistan Air Force Mi-17 Hip helicopters undergoing maintenance and a room of spares parts.
This was not meant to become a thread on #Afghanistan lost air force... 🤦‍♂️
#Taliban reportedly with another #Afghanistan Air Force Mi-17 Hip Helicopter yesterday. (Some difficulty in confirm location and date of this however) ImageImageImage
Another #Afghanistan Air Force Mi-17 Hip Helicopter reportedly yesterday - note absence of winch and different camo from example above. Image
Reportedly #Taliban at Ghazni with #US supplied Bell MD-530F and at least one UH-60 Blackhawk yesterday ImageImage
Footage reportedly showing #Taliban at Kandahar airport #Afghanistan with 2 #US supplied UH-60 Blackhawk (one under maintenance, one on apron) and 2 stored Mi-17 Hip helicopters
Confirmation of Kandahar airport location (31.51086, 65.86269), geolocated with @planet 19 June satellite imagery
ImageImage
New footage reportedly showing #Taliban at Herat airport with 2 seemingly operable #Afghanistan Air Force Mi-17 Hip helicopters
Confirmation of Herat airport location (34.21595, 62.22686), geolocated with @planet 14 Feb satellite imagery
ImageImage
@planet Important to note recent @Maxar & @planet imagery indicates #Afghanistan Air Force managed to redeploy majority of operational aircraft away from #Taliban capture.

However for fixed-wing aircraft including armed A-29B & AC-208 they are fast running out of safe airbases. Image
While it appears the #Taliban may have captured some operable Mi-17 Hip helicopters (and potentially other types in future) their access to proficient air crews will remain a limiting factor - these are not forgiving 'pick up and play' platforms. ImageImageImage
Further footage reportedly shows #Taliban at Kandahar airport with #Afghanistan Air Force #US supplied C-208 transport aircraft (not armed AC-208 variant) and MD-530F helicopter '300' (rotors removed)
Confirmation of Kandahar airport location (31.51154, 65.86429), geolocated with @planet 19 June satellite imagery
ImageImage
Reportedly #Taliban at Mazar-i-Sharif Air Base with another #Afghanistan Air Force MD-530F helicopter and significantly their first A-29B Super Tucano light strike aircraft (serviceability unknown) ImageImage
Reportedly another image from Mazar-i-Sharif Air Base yesterday showing a further three #Afghanistan Air Force MD-530F helicopters Image
Amidst apparent desperation and chaos at #Kabul airport, remainder of #Afghanistan Air Force is also likely held up there. Indications some aircraft already left country but others may well be destroyed/disabled by departing forces to prevent capture (archive images) ImageImageImage
An #Afghanistan Air Force A-29B Super Tucano apparently crashed in #Uzbekistan overnight after fleeing the country gazeta.uz/uz/2021/08/16/… Image
Identification of #Afghanistan Air Force A-29B Super Tucano wreckage that reportedly crashed in #Uzbekistan Image
"Uzbekistan's air defence forces prevented an attempt by an Afghan military aircraft to illegally cross Uzbekistan's border"
- #Uzbekistan defence ministry spokesman

reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
The shot down A-29B Super Tucano is not believed to be the only #Afghanistan Air Force aircraft crossing the #Uzbekistan border in the last 24hrs, though what authorisations were given or not is unknown.

So not shot down...

“However, during the escort, the Embraer 314 and MiG-29 aircraft collided and fell in the Sherabad district of the Surkhandarya region...”
- #Uzbekistan General Prosecutor's Office

gazeta.uz/ru/2021/08/16/… ImageImage
#Uzbekistan General Prosecutors Office has reportedly withdrawn the claim of collision with a Mig-29

apnews.com/article/europe…
Reportedly another #Afghanistan MD-530F at #Taliban captured Mazar-i-Sharif airport. If previous imagery accurate this would make at least five from this site alone.
Footage of two #Afghanistan UH-60 Blackhawk reportedly having landed in a field in #Uzbekistan
Amazing 16th August @planet satellite image shows the fleeing #Afghanistan Air Force aircraft that have appeared at Termuz #Uzbekistan in the last few of days Image

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More from @JosephHDempsey

Apr 9
My latest @IISS_org Military Balance blog coauthored with Douglas Barrie uses @Maxar satellite imagery to confirm that Algeria has emerged as an unexpected recipient of Egypt’s long-grounded Sukhoi Su-35 Flanker M aircraft order from Russia.
iiss.org/online-analysi…
Satellite imagery of Komsomolsk-on-Amur, Russia on 2 March shows a Russian Air Force An-124 loading the fuselage section of an Egyptian paint scheme Su-35. A similarly marked An-124 was seen an Ain Beida/Oum el Bouaghi Air Base in Algeria on 5 March. Image
The first known commercial satellite image of an Su-35 in Algeria was captured on shortly after on 10 March at the same airbase, the distinct Algerian Air Force green and white roundel visible on the port wing.
This image is also now available on @googleearth (35.876719,7.271345) Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 17
My latest @IISS_org Military Balance blog revisits North Korea's Nampo shipyard following state media imagery confirming my previous suspicion North Korea is building its largest-ever warship there.
On 29 December 2024, KCTV aired a report that included four still images showing President Kim Jong-un inspecting a new naval vessel under construction.

The images released by KCTV capture at least two [in retrospect three] separate visits in recent months Image
Image
Image
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Though unstated the location was readily identifiable as Nampo shipyard, having featured in my Oct 2024 @IISS_org Military Balance blog highlighted an unusual structure emerging around the assembly of an unidentified vessel

My previous assessment here: go.iiss.org/40qnynGImage
Read 21 tweets
Jan 6
North Korea claim successful test of new type of Intermediate-range Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) Image
Image
Launch of North Korea claimed new type HGV geolocated to 39.191350, 125.957236
Image
North Korea redeveloped this site around 6 months ago in similar garden style to the nearby Hwasong-18/19 launch site. Despite appearances of 'unprepared' launch sites satellite imagery also indicates hard standing was laid prior to turf to support the heavy launcher Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 4, 2024
North Korea launch suspected ballistic missile
The timing of North Korea's launch on the eve of the US elections is unlikely coincidental.

While it may be timed to make a undiplomatic point, there may still be an underlying developmental dimension depending on the ballistic missile system tested.

Japan MoD data on North Korea launch of 'multiple' ballistic missiles.

🕢07:30 - 07:39 5 Nov 2024 (GMT+9)
▶️~400km
🔼~100km

mod.go.jp/j/press/news/2…Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 17, 2024
North Korea launches suspected ballistic missile according to South Korea (JCS) and Japan (MoD)

A single missile could likely indicate a
medium-long range system or something novel like a HGV test.

m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202407…
Both South Korea (JCS) and Japan (MoD) subsequently clarifying 'multiple' ballistic missile were launched by North Korea

🕖~06:50 (🇰🇷) / 06:53 & 07:23 (🇯🇵)
▶️~400km (🇰🇷)
🔼 No data
🗺️Launch from Kaechon area, North of Pyongyang (🇰🇷)

A few belated thoughts on North Korea's launch of "new-type tactical ballistic missile Hwasong-11-Da-4.5 and an improved strategic cruise missile"...
Image
Image
Read 6 tweets
Sep 17, 2024
My latest #MilitaryBalance @IISS_org blog utilises @Maxar satellite imagery to identify new progress by North Korea 🇰🇵 in modifying an Il-76 transport aircraft, providing additional evidence that is intended to be an airborne early warning (AEW) platform.
iiss.org/online-analysi…
1⃣. Satellite imagery by from 8 September 2024 shows the modifications on top of the fuselage uncovered for the first time with two convergent vertical struts consistent with a possible radar-dome mounting.
Image
2⃣. Recent imagery also indicates North Korea has added ventral strakes to the Il-76
Similar aerodynamic strakes are a common feature on other Il-76 AEW conversions (🇷🇺🇨🇳🇮🇶) to improve flight characteristics and counteract effects of the large radar dome. Image
Read 8 tweets

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