Thread by @smartrestartaps

1/ Thought-provoking 🧵 on how Delta variant may be more dependent on larger clusters of infection (super-spreading!) to surge. The “k” factor or variability could be more. But add a “super emitter” to a low air flow room and 💥, then multiply by how often this is happening…

https://twitter.com/DrTomFrieden/status/1425468984321843217

2/ The obvious applicability is one would reduce the following:
📌Eliminate situations like indoor eating at schools, in community cafeterias, and improve airflow in rooms that are ideal for superspreading. (<1 ACH for sure; close to 2 ACH should be next priority, and so on).

3/ We would also:
📌Try to screen out next super emitter from turning infectious… We’d test kids in classrooms with known case, for instance, and not just assume “had a mask on so can’t have gotten it.” Many private schools have such required pooled testing or rapid testing.

4/ Wonder how % of vaccinated at a school also would interact with the k factor, if it turns out to be true that #DeltaVariant may be more unpredictable as who is a “high emitter” or ”low emitter.” Could having more kids vaccinated reduce the # who would become “high emitters?”

5/ The k factor could also be related to success with masks in some settings… It’s harder for a ”super emitter” to emit if (even a lower quality mask) is blocking 40-50% of the exhaled particles. But masks may be even more highly effective on most people who are “low emitters.”

6/ It’s all theoretical, thinking out loud, but good food for 🧠today from @DrTomFrieden.