Thread by @mcpli

Lots of questions going around about whether it is too late to pass federal redistricting reforms for this decade with redistricting data coming out tomorrow. Short answer: It is not. Longer answer in this thread 🧵 #fairmaps #S1 #HR1 #ForThePeople 1/

Longer answer: It’s not too late, *but* states are going to start drawing and passing maps in a matter of weeks and to have optimal effect reforms would be in place before that happens. So the clock is ticking. #fairmaps #S1 #HR1 #ForThePeople 2/

The longer Congress waits, the less robust reforms risk being. For example, right now, the bill has strong transparency & public participation requirements and mandates that states release an analysis of maps before they are voted on. #fairmaps #S1 #HR1 #ForThePeople 3/

Requirements like these would prevent what happened in PA in 2011 when Rs held their congressional map in secret until the *day of* the committee hearing on it - and then voted it out committee & passed it in the state senate the same day. #fairmaps #S1 #HR1 #ForThePeople 4/

But unless Congress has a secret time machine they haven’t been telling us about, those kinds of requirements - which play a critical role in helping police the redistricting process - can’t be implemented after the fact. #fairmaps #S1 #HR1 #ForThePeople 5/

Likewise, while Congress can always impose new legal rules for maps, including a ban on partisan gerrymandering, the longer it waits to pass legislation, the messier implementing those rules will be. #fairmaps #S1 #HR1 #ForThePeople 6/

Changes would have to be made through litigation, additional legislative sessions may be required to redraw and fix maps - and all of that might require moving primary dates and other election deadlines. #fairmaps #S1 #HR1 #ForThePeople 7/

In short, it gets messy. At the end of the day, this might have to be the road we go down if Congress can’t get its act together. But it would be much better & less disruptive to everyone from voters on up if the rules for redistricting were set up front. #fairmaps #S1 #HR1 8/

That call ultimately is Congress’s. By all accounts, Congress is making good progress to getting to a compromise bill. It’s on the 5-yard line of passing the most transformative redistricting reform in history. It just needs to finish the job. #fairmaps #S1 #HR1 #ForThePeople 9/

The other thing I will add is that if Congress passes reforms only after maps are passed in a large number of states - thus requiring litigation to implement new map rules - it will increase the likelihood that late litigation will mean some bad maps survive for 2022. 10/

Even though those maps may ultimately be changed in litigation for future cycles, they will be in place for 2022 - not because they are remotely good but only because Congress didn’t set the rules early enough and leave enough time to let litigation play out. 11/

Oh, and then there also are unintended consequences if primaries, etc. have to be moved to allow litigation to play out - like Ted Cruz.

David Dewhurst almost certainly would have won the 2012 Texas Senate primary if it had been held in early March instead of late May. 12/

Which is to say if primaries get moved, they probably move for all races, not just congressional contests.

Or courts could order special jungle primaries for US House as happened in Texas in 1996.

Either way, messy. 13/

All the more reason why, in sum, it behooves Congress (and the Biden White House) to prioritize getting this bill over the finish line. 14/