This tweet thread is about the results from the second serosurvey done in the #Karnataka state. Ahead of sharing the link, some caveats first.
1. The @DHFWKA has used the data from this round of serosurvey in late March to update testing and surveillance strategies.

1 of N
2. The study found Lower levels of IgG seroprevalence, mostly due to antibody waning.
3. A substudy was done to confirm the antibody waning. This study was delayed due to rapid surge of cases in April.
4. We found near 0 prevalence of active cases during mid-February 2021.
2/n
5. There was a subsequent surge seen in Karnataka state due to a mix of alpha, delta which was picking up speed in April, and a large susceptible population were infected.
6. Results from the substudy on antibody waning was necessary for releasing the final report & paper.
3/n
7. Brilliant work done by Dr Lalitha Hande and team mobilizing the NACO staff to do the survey while Dr Padma and the team at SSU did all the hard work in getting the survey implmented. Rajesh and Siva were the soul and energy behind every step of survey. A truly great team.
4/n
Contacts for discussion on the second round of the serosurvey

Dr R Padma: State Surveillance Unit SSU <ssuidspbangalore@gmail.com>

Dr Rajesh Sundaresan: <rajeshs@iisc.ac.in>

Dr Shiva Athreya : <athreya@isibang.ac.in>

5/n
Here is the link to the preprint: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

Going forward, sentinel surveys can help identify districts that need better testing, reporting, and clinical management. The Karnataka state was far from attaining population levels of immunity during the survey.
6 of N
The results from such surveys are useful for prioritizing the areas that need to step up vaccination coverage and enforce public health measures to prevent the spread of #COVD19. Analysis at district level can identify priority areas needing actions.
n/N
These tweets covered in here deccanherald.com/state/top-karn…

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More from @epigiri

2 Aug
Polio anywhere could be a threat to countries that had eradicated it. It took decades to eradicate polio in most parts while some are yet to eradicate. Not just this necessity, it was possible mostly due to a collaborative approach & strong leadership at the global level.
1/N
Lessons from Polio Eradiation, Cochi S et al
-Strong political & social support in each country
-Strategic planning & policy development
-Partnership management & donor coordination
-Program operations & tactics
-Oversight and independent monitoring.

polioeradication.org/wp-content/upl…

2/N
If there was high polio circulation in one region, other countries could prevent the possibilities of its import by vaccinating the children in their countreis. Therefore, all countries are continuing polio vaccination till other regions accomplish eradication.

3/N
Read 11 tweets
31 Jul
One and half years without school is a great toll on the children. The difficult part is to answer how to reopen schools with strict enforcement of #COVID appropriate behaviours. How can schools be made safe and protected bubbles for children?
School transmission varies according to student age and incidence in the local areas. The outbreaks in the school settings are substantially reduced with mitigation measures. Regular testing, teacher and staff vaccination can help reduce transmission.
acpjournals.org/doi/full/10.73…
As per the ECDC, there is very little possibility that schools are not associated with accelerating community transmission.
ecdc.europa.eu/en/publication…

However, large outbreaks can occur within 2 weeks of school reopening as per this Israel study.
eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…
Read 5 tweets
6 Jun
Source: @jeevanrakshaa @Mysore_Sanjeev

The 7-Day Moving Growth Rate
-#Mumbai: < 2% for over 4 weeks, city ready phase 4?

-#Delhi & #Ahmedabad: <2% for 2 weeks.Phase 2 or 3?

-#Bengaluru, #Chennai & #Kolkata: little over 2% Phase 1?

Phases 1-4:

1ofN
Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is increasing.
Why?
CFR= # Deaths / # Positive cases
- ↑ in numerator: Poor detection and treatment --> higher deaths
- Low Denominator ↓: Under-reporting of COVID Cases due to poor testing.

Higher the CFR in the city, poorer the TTT strategy.

2ofN
The review of positive Cases, active Cases, and death moving growth rate in juxtaposition will give wholistic view on the situation.
#Bengaluru & #Delhi have some work to do.

3 of N
Read 7 tweets
6 Jun
Once test positivity is under 5 over a week, what's safe to #unlock in the first phase ?
In Phase-2, what's safe to #unlock?
No more than 10 people in the following settings.
In Phase-3, what is safe to #unlock?
Not more than 50% of the capacity
Read 4 tweets
4 Jun
Not just that the technology is a barrier, this is the first time that India uses anything as a mandatory requirement for getting vaccinated. #CowinApp
Nothing can be a prerequisite for getting vaccinated or getting tested. #VaccineForAll
"It is easier to get married in India than to get vaccinated"

- @Dr_Aqsa_Shaikh , MBBS, MD Community Medicine is an Associate Professor of Community Medicine at Hamdard Institute of Medical Science and Research, Jamia Hamdard, Delhi.

Read 4 tweets
29 May
This is a great question. Here are my observations regarding this.
1 of N Image
Dr Anthony Fauci represents a systems which have complete autonomy & are highly accountable. These are built over a long period of investment in science, public health research, evidence based priorities and goal settings. Such systems will have thousands of Fauci not seen by us.
In this article, the defiance of Dr Fauci to the attempts of the President Trump are depicted, rightly so as heroism.

Such heroes are turned out of favor when science is used as a criteria for decision making in systems that don’t have autonomy and freedom.
Read 4 tweets

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