This month, I've further removed the lower conviction stocks from my portfolio, re-invested in Unity, Upstart and increased positions in D-Local, Lightspeed, Okta, Palantir and Snowflake.
If my companies keep executing, intend to own shares for the long haul.
Sold -
$AFTPY -> Acquired by Square
$FVRR -> LinkedIn marketplace launch threat
$ROKU -> Intensifying competition, int'l is tough
$SNAP -> Doubts about s. media's moat
These companies may end up doing very well, but I just don't like doubt/uncertainty. Prefer simple stories.
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I'm not on here to sell you a service or to solicit your business. I run this account to help others, share information and to engage with likeminded investors.
If you don't agree with my views, ideas, think I am a fraud/conman or generally....
...can't stand me, that is fine.
You can simply unfollow me and interact with other likeminded people. No hard feelings.
If you honestly believe I'm a con and my portfolio CAGR is fake, I'm happy to offer you a $1m bet (the easiest $1m you will make if you are right and...
...my portfolio CAGR turns out to be fake).
Both you and I can put up $1m and get my returns verified by a CPA and whoever is proven right, will keep the $2m.
If you really believe I am a con, please accept the bet. Why don't you do it, its free money right?
This deceleration shaved off 24% of Fiverr's market cap!
Here is a company which despite very tough comps (after last year's COVID related boost to its business), announced that its revenue will grow ~50% this year and its stock got smoked!
Agreed; its valuation was elevated but this 83% gross margin business is now...
...valued at ~21 X year-end EV/S.
Yesterday, Fiverr announced its active buyers grew by 43%YOY in Q2 '21 to 4 million and spend per buyer increased 23%YOY.
So, apart from a mild slowdown in its business (expected after last year's bump), all other metrics didn't indicate...
Some FinTwit accounts keep claiming I'm a fraud and a con artist...
According to them, I didn't really own a stake in my first investment management firm (I was merely an employee) and that my trades/performance are all made up.
I run this account for free, don't charge...
....anybody a cent, don't do any paid marketing, don't even accept any offers to run funds, share my research for FREE and don't run any paid service....yet, I'm accused of being a fraud!
My $1m wager to get my portfolio CAGR verified by CPA is still available...no takers yet.
If anyone has any doubts whatsoever about my career history, you can look up my name on Hong Kong Securities & Futures Commission website (public register). Here is the link -
In today's day and age, thanks to globalisation and progress in the developing world, creation of mandatory pensions + investment plans, the investor pool has grown tremendously and there is a constant inflow of investment dollars.
Add to this mix ZIRP + QE and one can see...
...why valuations have deviated from the historic norm.
Finally, never before in the history of capitalism have so many asset-light, high margin businesses (with recurring or sticky revenues) dominated globally and grown so rapidly for so long.
30-40 years ago, the best...
...businesses used to grow revenue by 20-25% pa their capex was usually high and most had to build factories and produce goods.
Today, dozens of globally dominant companies are growing by 50-100+% pa, they are asset light and their marginal cost is approaching zero....
Founder-led, capital light, non-cyclical high growth businesses with big TAMs, long runways, recurring revenues/sticky customers and high margins are almost always "overvalued".
Why should such companies be cheap?
Even during COVID-crash, the best names were richly valued.
Not investing because of "overvaluation" has been a big mistake for ~20 years! All the big winners looked overvalued + stayed rich for years.
Even during the GFC crash-low, the highest quality compounders were "overvalued".
In the long run, business quality > valuation.
Valuation matters obviously - the lower the valuation at the time of 'entry', the higher the subsequent return.
However, the most promising businesses are hardly ever 'undervalued' and the best time to buy into them is during stock market sell-offs, when they get marked down.