Yesterday's new Census data matched with election results: America's fastest-growing counties have almost exclusively gotten more Democratic since 2012. Counties shifting towards Republicans have mostly shrunk.
Of counties that grew, 70% shifted Dem
90% of shrinkers moved right
Of counties that grew, 70% shifted Dem
90% of shrinkers moved right
This relationship is not entirely causal, but it does tell us a lot about how people perceive politics — both locally (eg in shrinking or growing places) and nationally (with Republicans serving as the party for "left behind", mostly white places w/ high degrees of status threat.
I imagine the relationship is even stronger with 2008 vote data, in case someone wants to send me a csv of county fips codes and D + R vote shares (I know I have one on my computer somewhere, but CMD + F is not saving me)
FWIW, here are the scatters for 12 -> 16 and 16 -> 20. You can see most of the growth rate polarization happened in the earlier half of the decade.
(We can also remove FL and South Texas, and the curve for 12 -> 20 gets a bit steeper)
(We can also remove FL and South Texas, and the curve for 12 -> 20 gets a bit steeper)
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