Yesterday's new Census data matched with election results: America's fastest-growing counties have almost exclusively gotten more Democratic since 2012. Counties shifting towards Republicans have mostly shrunk.

Of counties that grew, 70% shifted Dem
90% of shrinkers moved right
This relationship is not entirely causal, but it does tell us a lot about how people perceive politics — both locally (eg in shrinking or growing places) and nationally (with Republicans serving as the party for "left behind", mostly white places w/ high degrees of status threat.
I imagine the relationship is even stronger with 2008 vote data, in case someone wants to send me a csv of county fips codes and D + R vote shares (I know I have one on my computer somewhere, but CMD + F is not saving me)
FWIW, here are the scatters for 12 -> 16 and 16 -> 20. You can see most of the growth rate polarization happened in the earlier half of the decade.

(We can also remove FL and South Texas, and the curve for 12 -> 20 gets a bit steeper)

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More from @gelliottmorris

4 Aug
#New: 30% of American adults haven’t been vaccinated for covid-19 yet. 18% total are relatively hard anti-vaxxers. Our poll shows around 1/10th could be persuaded to get jabbed by a full FDA authorization, but the vast majority may be impossible to sway.…
Via me and @JamesFransham, with @MatterofMatt on chartage
That’s one-tenth of unvaccinated people, BTWS So full authorization might boost overall rates by a few percentage points. (The real number could be higher in the future if the information ecosystem shifts as a result, but I wouldn’t necessarily bet on that.)
Read 4 tweets
1 Aug
I will make a better plot soon, but vax rates in the rural midwest and northeast look to be the highest above trend in all the US. Would be interested in reading about why
My initial hypothesis is that counties with a high concentration of whites but fewer white evangelicals have these higher-than-expected vax rates. But there also seems to be a sizable state-level intercept
Read 4 tweets
30 Jul
I think bias in US electoral institutions is probably a bigger threat to representative government in American than almost anything else. The growing rural bias of the Senate+EC (graphs via @davidshor) nearly ensures Rs will deny Ds fair majoritarian control for at least a decade
Plus, bc of the current bias in the House & 2022 redistricting harms, Ds r very very likely to lose control of Congress. Extrapolating historical trends, current polling indicates they'll be @ 48% in polls on eday. Polarization gets Ds ~1% back. But they need 51.5-52%. (MOE is 6)
When ppl ask me if we are approaching civil war, I tend to say no — Instead, we are rapidly nearing a time when the majority will need 52-53% to win, & a ruling authoritarian minority will enact policies that harm the other 200m+ citizens w/o meaningful electoral accountability
Read 7 tweets
27 Jul
.@BenSasse & others have argued that a decline in religiosity in America has left ppl vulnerable to the false spiritual satisfaction of conspiracy theories & sectarianism, eg in QAnon.

But we find the opposite. The least religious are the least credulous:…
And it’s not just QAnon; Our Economist/YouGov data show white evangelical Christians are also disproportion likely to believe other conspiracies — eg about the 2020 election, but also about vaccines and the moon landing. True even after controlling for demographics and politics.
Finally, the relationship between church attendance & conspiratorial thinking is positive even if you omit evangelical Christians, though less so. They are driving the trend—but the most religious Americans regardless are more likely to adopt phony theories than the least devout.
Read 4 tweets
19 Jul
This reminds me of the time I was coding in a Starbucks & an 80yr old man, unsolicited & bc I “looked good with computers,” whipped out a chunky 2005-looking Dell laptop & instructed me to remove a “real nasty” webpage his “twin brother” bookmarked. It was hardcore incest porn.
He offered me $50 for my help (and silence, presumably). You know, a single bill pulled out of one of those old man rubber-banded balls of cash. I refused. Then he pushed his walker outside and left with his wife.
I don’t go back there.
Read 4 tweets
17 Jul
Idk, it seems almost impossible to attribute causality of the current covid wave to CDC masking policies vs Delta variant. Our YouGov/Economist survey data suggest the CDC announcement didn’t really even change trends in masking rates for vaccinated or unvaccinated Americans.
People should focus on opinion leaders rather than gov advice — we know support for Trump and news source drives way more masking/vaccination behavior more than attention to news or trust in scientists + institutions. Blame the source of anti-vax opinion before gov guidelines.
Read 6 tweets

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