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John Morales

@JohnMoralesNBC6

12 Aug

Invest 95L es el próximo sistema de origen africano localizado ya casi a medio camino hacia las Antillas. La probabilidad de desarrollo llega a 70% (CNH). El único factor que inhibe su fortalecimiento son los fuertes vientos del este en altura, pero se espera que eso disminuya
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Existe aire sahariano seco al norte de 95L pero los modelos muestran que el núcleo de aire húmedo debe permanecer más intacto que el de pre-Fred.

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@TropicalTidbits

Hasta el momento, el modelo europeo le ha ido bien en interpretar lo que viene ocurriendo en vida real. Y ese modelo trae una tormenta tropical al sector de PR/RD entre domingo y lunes.

(imagen anterior via @TropicalTidbits y esta via @weatherbell)

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John Morales

@JohnMoralesNBC6

12 Aug

By now you know that there’s not much risk of a windstorm. Even if Fred somehow revives there’s not enough time for it to be more than a minimal tropical storm by the time it passes near or over South Florida & the Keys. The updated chance for storm-force winds as of 11 (%):

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W Palm Beach 11
Ft Lauderdale 13
Miami 10
Homestead 11
Marathon 29
Key West 21
Naples 26
Ft Myers 12
Tampa 22
Orlando 7

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So today it’s time to start focusing on the bigger threat from Fred as a storm or Fred’s remnants as a tropical wave — heavy rain. We’re used to multiple inches of rain even on a summer afternoon. But in these type of events you can get persistent bands over the same spot…

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John Morales

@JohnMoralesNBC6

12 Nov 20

Volume increasing (at least on local news) from frustrated residents of South Florida’s flooded neighborhoods. I can refer you to my timeline for previous posts on this matter, but let me summarize again:

(1) no system is designed to absorb 18 inches of rain in a day

#thread 1/

(2) Granted, some flood mitigation is possible. I said mitigation, not elimination. E.g. the C-4 Basin in Miami-Dade put in place after the 2000 No Name Storm. And pumps. These things cost big big bucks. Meaning higher taxes. So people against higher taxes can’t have it both ways

(3) This particular event had a 1% chance of occurring in any year. But we’ve had many 1-in-100 year events just over the course of the last 25 years. Statistics are static and don’t incorporate the changing dynamics being driven by #ClimateChange

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John Morales

@JohnMoralesNBC6

8 Nov 20

Sunday coffee Eta briefing:

The dry air from the upper level low has arrived, while wind shear and land interaction impact the storm. The storm is, at least for now, weakening. Tellingly, the Hurricane Watch for South Florida has *not* been upgraded to a Warning.

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Models, which have now benefited from 2 surveillance missions from the G-IV jet sampling the environment on 3 sides of Eta, have joined the anticipatory Euro which was calling for a hard-left out of Cuba. While that turn has yet to happen, Eta is slowing — a sign of imminent turn

As a result, NHC has pushed their forecast track south yet again — now showing the center passing 94 miles away from Miami and making landfall as a robust tropical (or subtropical) storm in the Lower Keys very late tonight. On the map, blue depicts the Tropical Storm Warning

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John Morales

@JohnMoralesNBC6

7 Nov 20

I’ve been answering everyone individually but let’s do a shutters post for all. Shutters are generally required for winds in excess of 105 mph, which are the ones that can lift non-aerodynamic objects like roof tiles and such. Eta is forecast to be a 70 MPH tropical storm

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@NWSMiami

Now, that’s not to say that there isn’t an outside chance that it will become a Cat 1 hurricane and — this is important — *sustain* that intensity through Monday. So, let’s consider a reasonable worst case scenario. Conveniently, @NWSMiami does that for us.

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@NWSMiami

@NWSMiami This is considered a scenario that has a 10% chance of occurring. It shows hurricane winds for coastal #Miami-Dade east of I-95 or US-1 and the Upper Keys. There’s a 90% chance that it won’t happen, and anything stronger isn’t in the cards according to the experts.

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John Morales

@JohnMoralesNBC6

7 Nov 20

Tropical Storm Warning posted for South Florida and the Keys.

Forecast track for Eta as a robust tropical or subtropical storm nudged northward to the Upper Keys and south Miami-Dade with the latest NHC advisory. The Euro and Japanese models only holdouts showing FL Straits

The intensity forecast from NHC has remained unchanged over the last several advisories. It is more aggressive than the model forecasts, which, eyeballing it, average to a ~50 MPH max wind storm. However, given the track adjustment, chances for storm-force winds increased.

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Chance for tropical storm winds (%)

Orlando 15
Ft Pierce 28
W Palm Beach 43

Ft Lauderdale 51
Miami 41
Homestead 41

Marathon 42
Key West 34

Naples 46
Ft Myers 33

Based on NHC 10 AM EST #Eta

(note: FLL airport is a coastal ocean exposure and therefore has a higher %)

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