What does Afghanistan's fall mean for US counterterrorism efforts, original purpose of our involvement? Lots of takes, filled with certainty, but the answer is not clear yet. As someone whose lane is homeland security, these are questions that might be helpful. Questions only. 1/
#1: Does this increase, decrease, or neither our efforts against transnational terror threats? Bin Laden gone, we destroyed AQD, and related groups have not been able to set up shop in another failed state. This will go to whether the Taliban is the same as it was in 2001. 2/
#2: What (covert) capabilities do we still have to prevent, mitigate, disrupt terrorism from Afghanistan? There are sources of terror around the world where US doesn’t have combat troops on the ground. We need to retain over the horizon counter-terrorism abilities. How? 3/
Biden touched on this. His statement Sat. specifically addressed it for first time: “Second, I have ordered our armed forces and our intelligence community to ensure that we will maintain the capability and the vigilance to address future terrorist threats from Afghanistan.”4/
#3: Will our departure and the horror of these days serve as a motivator for terror directed at West? May be hard to deny, but not at all clear how this unfolds. 5/
#4: As significantly, will Afghan refugees -- not unlike Syria -- create both recruitment tool and a right-wing anti-immigrant sentiment in Europe and elsewhere that can turn to violence? 6/
Just questions that might help or challenge some (political) takes. This is not 2001; our counterterror capabilities are different. As we approach the 20th anniversary of 9/11, this is all very painful. But what it means may be more questions than answers today. @cnn in 1pm. 7/7
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