For people worried about #HurricaneIda and family and friends there, much like having early judgments about the scope of an evacuation after a war is lost, it is hard to assess a storm in real time. It just is. 1/
Systems go out, but generators go on, systems reconnect. Bridges sway. Barges come unmoored. It is bad, but extent of bad can’t be assessed yet. The only thing that matters is human life. Many couldn’t evacuate. 2/
There were 50 levee failures in Katrina, some of them took a lot of time to identify. Do they hold this time? How many? And if they don’t, once winds pass, can more people be evacuated (Katrina deaths were mostly drownings after storm passed). 3/
Anyway a lot of us study Katrina for different reasons. No one knows it better than @andydhorowitz and his book on Katrina and it’s aftermath is terrific. He evacuated for Ida. He’s not optimistic. 4/
Let me be half glass full here. You cannot underestimate what having a competent Governor and mayor means to disaster response; a FEMA that now abides by “go big or stay home” mantra; and better situational awareness so no surprises (technology, etc, helps guide responders). 5/
The levees are imperfect but better. We will have greater transparency whether they remained in tact or were breached earlier because of modern technology, and that buys time for people. In Katrina, b/c people didn’t know about levees, they thought they were ok. They weren’t. 6/
Still pray or what works. But anything now about fear of fatalities or extent of damage is premature (includes thinking too soon that the worst is over because many communities might not get the same attention as NOLA.) Things will be bad. But one hopes not catastrophic. 7/7
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