As the 9/11 anniversary approaches and we focus on terrorism from Afghanistan, it is an easy talking point (and clickbait) to simply say we are back to where we started or at risk the same as 9/11. Our exit does change our capacity against terror. That is obvious. But 1/
it is not simply a dynamic that the risk has increased so therefore we are doomed. So passive. 6 variables to consider, all dynamic. Certitude is unhelpful: a)Taliban capacity and motivation to keep Al Qaeda in check; b)Al Qaeda's real capacity to train and launch attacks; 2/
c)Taliban competition with ISISK; d)Pakistan, Russia and China influence on Taliban to control terror; e)international focus and non military ("over the horizon") tactics for counterterror efforts since 2001; f)homeland defense capacity since 2001. 3/
Counterterror and homeland folks will all agree the situation changed. It is not terribly deep analysis. It may be all these factors lead to attacks. But those who scream 9/11 without factoring in the complicated background may have a motivation different than trying to inform. 4

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More from @juliettekayyem

30 Aug
For people worried about #HurricaneIda and family and friends there, much like having early judgments about the scope of an evacuation after a war is lost, it is hard to assess a storm in real time. It just is. 1/
Systems go out, but generators go on, systems reconnect. Bridges sway. Barges come unmoored. It is bad, but extent of bad can’t be assessed yet. The only thing that matters is human life. Many couldn’t evacuate. 2/
There were 50 levee failures in Katrina, some of them took a lot of time to identify. Do they hold this time? How many? And if they don’t, once winds pass, can more people be evacuated (Katrina deaths were mostly drownings after storm passed). 3/
Read 7 tweets
24 Aug
Biden sticks to 8/31 but with caveat. Today Burns meets Taliban. Evacuations scale. Taliban says 8/31 again to assert control b/c to concede it would be bad for them. Doesn’t mention Burns. Biden repeats deadline, but states huge caveat, the best for both sides. 1/
Put the other way, if Biden announced extension, the likely result is more danger for troops who will be seen as under no requirement to leave by elements of uncontrolled Taliban and ISIS. The mission, not the date, matters. And which decision protects mission today? 2/
ironically by not extending, we’ve actually bought more time because we haven’t changed a thing. Another day. More planes. Keep moving. It is not our country. The victor has a say. Extend the reckoning. Yes, everything bad. This could be the less bad option? 3/
Read 5 tweets
15 Aug
What does Afghanistan's fall mean for US counterterrorism efforts, original purpose of our involvement? Lots of takes, filled with certainty, but the answer is not clear yet. As someone whose lane is homeland security, these are questions that might be helpful. Questions only. 1/
#1: Does this increase, decrease, or neither our efforts against transnational terror threats? Bin Laden gone, we destroyed AQD, and related groups have not been able to set up shop in another failed state. This will go to whether the Taliban is the same as it was in 2001. 2/
#2: What (covert) capabilities do we still have to prevent, mitigate, disrupt terrorism from Afghanistan? There are sources of terror around the world where US doesn’t have combat troops on the ground. We need to retain over the horizon counter-terrorism abilities. How? 3/
Read 7 tweets
13 Aug
Skydiver Bill Booth and Booth's Rule #2 can tell us a lot about this careless phase of the pandemic. Stick with this. Like in diving, surfing or other high risk sports, as equipment became safer, the fatality rate remained exactly the same. There was simply a risk offset. 1/
“The safer skydiving gear becomes, the more chances skydivers will take, in order to keep the fatality rate constant," Booth noted. Parachutes are safer, but also faster, with high performing canopies pushing divers who become too confident because of these safety features. 2/
What was worse, the careless behavior was harming the safer divers and surfers: more fatal crashes, more collisions, more drownings as the safe riders tried to avoid the offsetting ones. 3/
Read 5 tweets
27 Jul
I too am at wits end, but the takeaway from the CDC today isn't about masking. It is the science. Delta is infecting a small proportion of people who are fully vaccinated, allowing them then to transmit more easily than the original or alpha strains. We are spreaders.
I just advise based on the science. Not a doctor. But this line in guidance stands out as driving change: "However, preliminary evidence suggests that fully vaccinated people who do become infected with the Delta variant can be infectious and can spread the virus to others."
This is much stronger than what where it links to, the May "no mask" guidance, pre-Delta. It means in areas where Delta reigns and goes unchecked, the vaccinated are actually transmitting more easily than when the vaccines first were tested. An endless loop.
Read 4 tweets
27 Jul
The 1/6 hearings are less like the common analogies of 9/11 Commission or Trump's impeachments. Instead, look to the Vietnam Hearings held by Senate Foreign Relations Chair J. William Fulbright in 1966. 1/
A reporter had written to Fulbright in early 1966 to say "the war is not going well. If there is a God, and he is very kind to us, and given a million men, and five years, and a miracle in making the South Vietnamese people like us, we stand an outside chance—of a stalemate." 2/
The hearings were not conclusive; the war lasted years after. But they began Fulbright's attempts to forestall a buildup and "educate" the American public about the dangers at hand. Fulbright -- who pulled his dark glasses off at key moments -- was also from central casting. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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