As the 9/11 anniversary approaches and we focus on terrorism from Afghanistan, it is an easy talking point (and clickbait) to simply say we are back to where we started or at risk the same as 9/11. Our exit does change our capacity against terror. That is obvious. But 1/
it is not simply a dynamic that the risk has increased so therefore we are doomed. So passive. 6 variables to consider, all dynamic. Certitude is unhelpful: a)Taliban capacity and motivation to keep Al Qaeda in check; b)Al Qaeda's real capacity to train and launch attacks; 2/
c)Taliban competition with ISISK; d)Pakistan, Russia and China influence on Taliban to control terror; e)international focus and non military ("over the horizon") tactics for counterterror efforts since 2001; f)homeland defense capacity since 2001. 3/
Counterterror and homeland folks will all agree the situation changed. It is not terribly deep analysis. It may be all these factors lead to attacks. But those who scream 9/11 without factoring in the complicated background may have a motivation different than trying to inform. 4
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