Thread by @StuartDNeilson

Activity levels in #Ireland are fast approaching pre-pandemic levels, with Google Community Mobility levels of Parks, Residential, Grocery & pharmacy, and Workplace into above-average, non-lockdown levels of mobility.

TomTom is registering levels of congestion close to pre-pandemic 2019 traffic in #Dublin and #Cork, with congestion in #Cork now HIGHER than pre-pandemic 2019 traffic over the weekends.
(tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-…)

Mobility and congestion returned towards pre-pandemic levels from the full school return on Monday 12 April, with high levels rising over the preceding weekend.
covid19.apple.com/mobility
google.com/covid19/mobili…

The Covid-19 reproduction number tracks the same form as mobility - the virus requires people to replicate and social contact & mobility to transmit.

The reproduction number in #Ireland is about 0.94, and rising again.

The reproduction number is estimated to be:-

Imperial College: 0.83 (mrc-ide.github.io/covid19-short-…)

LSHTM: 0.87 (epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/gl…)

Harvard: 0.97 (metrics.covid19-analysis.org)

The reproduction number diverges by age in #Ireland, rising most sharply in those aged 0-64 years. Age-group-specific incidence is rising at 1-4 years, 45-54 years and15-24 years.
Incidence is falling fastest in those most vaccinated, over-65 years.

The number of people actively infected remains high, around 3,200 people with confirmed positive tests (and more asymptomatic / untested). The fall in incidence and active cases is very slow.

Following the current trend in incidence in #Ireland, with the current relatively high reproduction number, we would reach the lockdown exit target of 100 cases per day in the 2nd week of August.
Realistically, this will be a summer of outbreaks and rolling restrictions.

A number of counties in #Ireland have moved into (and out of) the Green and Amber levels, and may not hold their relatively Covid-free status without additional restrictions to preserve their ability to open more activity.

If we recognise social contact and mobility as a limited budget, we are not necessarily spending it well. After essential expenditure on high-social-contact activities like medical care, public transport and education, we seem *very* active but *without* economic activity.