The comparison today between #Ethiopia and Afghanistan could not be more stark.
There is a lesson in this terrible being for the 50 year long period of US adventures in #Afghanistan.
AlMariam expresses this beautifully in these three passages.
Someone told me that Feltman’s visit is just for show, a fool’s errand, “he just has to show up, they said. But it doesn’t have to be that way.
His best approach to achieve peaceful settlement at this 13th hour would be to go directly to Addis and talk to @AbiyAhmedAli.
He should offer American assistance to remove TPLF leadership, then ask for Ethiopia’s terms to agree to the TPLF surrendering with their lives.
The Ethiopian PM is afterall a peacemaker, and for the US it would be honourable to at least try to save the lives of their loyal but repulsive puppet proxy counter-terrorism partners of the last 30 years.
He should then go to Mekelle, a decent bodyguard force would be advised, and inform the TPLF that the game is over for them, and present @AbiyAhmedAli’s terms.
And then, if the TPLF agree to surrender on the terms agreed with @AbiyAhmedAli in advance they get to live.
If not the United States must then honour it’s word and - if Ethiopia is willing to allow them to do so - help clean up their own mess.
American foreign policy needs to be wholly remade. For @POTUS@joebiden this is the perfect opportunity. Yes America failed and arguably betrayed Afghanistan, but it can show in the midst of its humiliation, that it has learned its lesson.
As we begin to fight the greatest threat humanity has ever faced, Climate Change, the world needs a new America, a different State Dept, that can rally the nations of the world with something other than fear.
We are all sick of that America. And Ethiopians much more than most.
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The framing of what the USG has done today as "imposing sanctions" is not really what it is. I far better framing to interpret this is as a "framework to achieve and end to the war in North Ethiopia".
As a great imperial power the USG, struggles to say this in as many words. But it is clear when you read between the lines that the U.S. is finally willing to engage with the Ethiopian Govt. in a sincere manner. That said there is still a lot of water to travel under the bridge,
The framing of this initiative is carrot and stick. The stick is of course the bit that Ethiopia should not accept.
But the carrot is significant. The President of the United States is offering to restore Ethiopia's to its rightful place as friend and ally of the US.
This letter is fantastic. And a great way to respond to the @JoeBiden peace Initiative. Very very Abiy in its construction, strong, and heartfelt. The final paragraph is crucial.
The U.S. initiative - I just spent a couple of hours getting into the weeds on it - is on one level disrespectful, and on another (more important level) clearly a practical response to try to end this war and crisis.
The final paragraph of @AbiyAhmedAli's letter reads:
"It is essential to point out here that Ethiopia will not succumb to consequences of pressure engineered by disgruntled individuals for whom consolidating power is more important than the well-being of millions.
So this #TPLFStrategyLeak appears to be a significant event. An 86 page document leaked, allegedly written/presented to TPLF leadership a couple of weeks before the Northern Command attack.
The document appears to have been leaked online. A full version is not yet available.
The second #TPLFStrategyLeak tweet, tweeted earlier contains a summary and description of the full document. And I now have a full translation of that.
The document is in Amharic, which raises questions about its authenticity. However, it's not quite that simple, as it also raises questions about any attempt to fake it. I would also note that faking an 86 page doc. would itself be extraordinary.
The Ethiopian-Tigray Crisis-War has reached what looks like a turning point. The rumours, which are everywhere, that @POTUS@JoeBiden is about to sanction Ethiopia and Eritrea are clearly being telegraphed for a reason.
@POTUS@JoeBiden E.G. this is one of the most recent ones. And this one is weirdly specific. "18 Hours". sounds like there will be a press conference or something.
Apparently the announcement of the sanctions has been approved. On the day that @KarenBassTweets was due to depart for Ethiopia on CODEL (Congressional Delegation) visit. However this seems to have been postponed, now till 27th-29th September. Which is odd.
Translation into English of Somalia President Farmaajo’s statement suspending Somalia PM Roble @MohamedHRoble (aka Rooble)’s powers. [ Translation by @Mohamud_M_A ]