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François Heisbourg Profile picture
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16 Aug, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Thread: When analysing the strategic impact of an event (ie the fall of Afghanistan), one must consider the 1) WHAT (the fall of Kabul like that of Saigon rates a 7 on the Richter scale of strategic upsets, not a 10 like Berlin 1989) nytimes.com/2021/08/13/wor…
2) the WHERE (Afghanistan may rate a 7 on a scale of 10, rather like South-Vietnam in terms of strategic value, but less than, eg former USSR); 3) the WHO (the Talib have a bad global track record with bin Laden and 9/11 so I credit them with an 8, versus a 4 for Hanoi 1975)...
4) the WHEN. When Saigon fell, US and China were strategically at one vs the USSR. US was divided (Watergate) but not in decline vis à vis its Soviet peer competitor. The fall of Kabul comes after gradual US retreat ("Leading from Behind" in Libya; 2013 Syrian RedLine crisis;...
the lead on 🇺🇦 handed over to EU & Normandie format; Biden ending forever wars).🇨🇳 is surging to peer status & vying for primacy.🇷🇺 is China’s strategic partner vs a divided🇺🇸. This combination is what makes America's botched withdrawal potentially more damaging than Vietnam 1975
Of course, complex strategic situations can't be reduced to a set of quantitative inficators: strategy-by-the-numbers (eg Vietnam war body counts,Iraq occupation metrics) is rather like painting-by-the-numbers. So this thread should only be viewed as a way to stimulate reflection

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More from @FHeisbourg

François Heisbourg Profile picture
16 Aug
Thread on the issue of the US credibility as a defence guarantor. There are 3 types of players: 1) the "guaranteed" countries: will confidence in the US guarantee diminish as a result of the Afghanistan debacle? The Saigon precedent suggests not: NATO wasn't badly weakened.1/7
NATO had/still has 🇺🇸 nukes & GI's on the spot. Asia: though 🇰🇷 & Taiwan🇹🇼 were tempted to go nuclear, the US managed to reassure
the Asians.
🇰🇷, 🇯🇵, 🇹🇼 face an immensely stronger 🇨🇳 today, with no US nukes on the spot anymore & no US troops in Taiwan. Unclear whether the...2/7
...fall of Kabul will change their perceptions & their policies. 2) the potential aggressors: the USSR+Cuba mounted several post-Saigon armed ops in the 3d world but no direct challenge was mounted against guaranteed countries; USSR simply hardened its stance in EUR (SS20s...)3/7
Read 7 tweets
François Heisbourg Profile picture
16 Aug
When one compares the strategic impact of different events, it can be useful to parse them into discrete categories: 1) the HOW: the fall of Kabul was comparable in nature and speed to the take-over of Saigon. 2) the WHO: the Taliban have a worse track-record than Hanoi & the...
...Viet-Cong in terms of intertnational disruption (Al Qaeda) though the fate of Laos+Cambodia was largely shaped by Vietnam war. 3) the WHAT: strategically, both Afghanistan & Vietnam were intrinsically and regionally important. But not as significant as USSR & its collapse
4) the WHEN is what potentially makes the fall of Afghanistan more portentous: when Saigon fell, the US was divided but not in relative decline. US also had China on-side vs the USSR. Today, the US is both divided and in decline vis à vis China's surge as the peer competitor...
Read 4 tweets
François Heisbourg Profile picture
9 Aug
"Origins tracing terrorism"?? China apparently sees any attempt to understand where SARS-COV-2 comes from as "terrorism" (sic). This is either stupidity -not something one normally expects from China-, rank incompetence, gross dereliction of duty, or an avowal of responsibility.
Your choice. Note: China is emulating the Russian use of multiple & mutually incompatible narratives when things go wrong: 1) it can't be a lab leak; 2) it came from a lab leak (Ft Detrick,Busan); 3) origin was natural transmission from bats; 4) virus didn't come from an animal;
...5) origin is of great importance hence need to bring US, Italy, foreign frozen food etc to account); 6) any attempt to find origin is terrorism. 7) CCP guidance has conquered the virus and democratic regimes have failed; 8) Delta is a huge threat leading to new restrictions;
Read 5 tweets
François Heisbourg Profile picture
27 Jun
Initial reaction to French regional elections #electionsregionales2021 :
Winners:
1) all incumbent regional region heads are re-elected (all fm mainstream parties).
2) with strong wins by Bertrand (North) & Wauquiez (Lyon area), the mainstream Right has 2 strong potential...1/
...presidential candidates. But it will have to decide who will be the actual candidate in order to have a chance to beat Macron. Losers:
1) The extremes:
LePen's party does as poorly as last Sunday. The defeat is particularly stinging in the South. LePen is badly hurt as a...2/
presidential candidate. She may face a challenge from her right (Zemmour)
The hard left has cratered. In the Paris area, the merged list of the greens (Bayou), hard left (Autain), Socialists (Pulvar) did less well than in the 1st round. Bad for Mélenchon (19% in 2017) 3/
Read 6 tweets
François Heisbourg Profile picture
20 Jun
Lots of losers in the French regional elex #electionsregionales2021 : ultra-low voter participation (32%); poor figures for Macron's lists; abysmal results for hard left, mostly divided left+greens. But in strategic terms:1) Le Pen's party has failed worst, below 2015 outcome. 1/
2) mainstream right (but not official LR) candidates Xavier Bertrand in the North & ValériePécresse (Paris region) did well, making each a strong right wing contender for the presidential race. The 2d round next Sunday race may yet confirm the current configuration of the...2/
...presidential race, ie 2 lead candidates with LePen enjoying a narrow lead in opinion polls in 1st round but Macron winning in 2d round. Call this Option1: this could happen if LePen's list wins or comes close to a winning triangular contest in South. But other options may...3/
Read 5 tweets
François Heisbourg Profile picture
30 Mar
Notwithstanding Macron's use of the word, it never was an "alliance" in the sense that Russia would side with China against Vietnam in the SCS, or that China would support Russia in its Georgian or Ukrainian ventures. If it had tried to be, it would have broken down. 1/
It is a strategic partnership in which the two parties have free hands to do what they want to do (eg Russia in Crimea, China in SCS...). China benefits from access to Russian military know-how, energy and not having to worry about Russia siding with US "à la Mearsheimer" 2/
Russia has piece and quiet on its long Eastern border. Both bolster each other at the UN and have a framework for managing Central Asian issues. It's not frictionless nor competition-free. But it may well be more stable than a partnership among equals à la Hitler-Stalin: 3/
Read 5 tweets

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