#BREAKING: The community case is a 58-year-old man from Devonport in Auckland. The infectious period is considered to have started on Thursday, August 12. Still no obvious link to the border or MIQ. Genome sequencing not due till tomorrow. #nzpol #covid19 #covid19nz
The Government is treating the situation as if the case has the Delta variant. This is highly likely - all of the cases in MIQ over the past three weeks and all but one since late June have been Delta. i.stuff.co.nz/national/healt…
The case lives with his wife, who tested negative when tested yesterday. The case travelled to Coromandel Township over the weekend. The man is not yet vaccinated, but was making efforts to do so. His wife is fully vaccinated. The man was a "frequent user" of the NZ COVID app.
First locations of interest from MoH:
Anyone at a location of interest is *legally required* to follow the rules above around isolation and testing.
A wastewater test from North Shore from August 11 was negative. A sample taken today is still being processed.
Dr. Bloomfield says this is a national issue because the lack of a clear link to the border means it could have spread elsewhere or come from elsewhere.
#BREAKING: Cabinet has decided to move all of New Zealand to Level 4 from 11:59pm tonight. Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula likely to be at L4 for seven days, rest of the country for three days at this stage. #nzpol #Covid19 #Covid19nz

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More from @marcdaalder

6 Sep
This morning, I examine at the widening gap between Māori vaccination rates and those of the general population, why the Government's excuse for this gap doesn't hold up and how the situation might even be worse than it appears:
newsroom.co.nz/the-stark-ineq… #nzpol #Covid19 #Covid19nz
Just 19 percent of eligible Māori have been fully vaccinated, compared to over 30 percent of those in the "European or other" category. About 25 percent of Pasifika are fully vaccinated.
When asked about this disparity, the Govt has long pointed to different age structures in the population, saying that because younger people haven't had a chance to be vaccinated, the % of unvaxxed Māori will be higher. 60+ Māori and Pasifika were more vaccinated than others.
Read 8 tweets
5 Sep
Friendly reminder that if we had listened to Damien Grant and opened up last August, thousands of people would have died from a virus for which we developed an effective vaccine just months later.
Other requirements/consequences of a Sweden-style strategy:
-Closing secondary schools for months
-A six month (!) ban on visits to nursing and aged care homes
-As many as 30% of cases experiencing long-term, possibly debilitating, symptoms
-Again, thousands of avoidable deaths Image
Now he's pushing opening up now when:
a. Lockdown is working (which he bizarrely claims isn't the case)
b. Seven in 10 eligible New Zealanders aren't fully protected, but could be in mere months

So... more pointless, avoidable death and injury.

See also:
Read 4 tweets
17 Aug
Because NZ is going into lockdown, the international hot takes brigade will be out in full force. Some useful comparators:

Unemployment
NZ: 4%
US: 5.4%
UK: 4.7%

Debt-to-GDP in 2024
NZ: 28%
US: 111%
UK: 101.5%

#Covid19 Deaths Per 1M
NZ: 5.2
US: 1,893.8
UK: 1,964.1

#nzpol
If the UK and US had New Zealand's death rate, they'd have had 347 and 1,707 deaths, respectively. Instead the UK has seen 131,269 people die of Covid-19 and the US has seen 621,635. Most of these were preventable.
Oh, and on the subject of freedom:
Read 4 tweets
7 Oct 20
Labour is promising to reduce 1.9 percent of 20 percent of our emissions by 2035 and calls it climate action. Anyone else feeling gaslit? #climatechange #nzpol
Transport is responsible for 20 percent of our emissions and is the fastest growing sector in that regard, but diesel buses (public AND private) are responsible for just 1.9 percent of that!
I made a chart to show how ineffectual this policy is.
Read 5 tweets
7 Sep 20
A fact-check of Simon Thornley's appearance on @NZQandA yesterday. Thornley begins by citing the "Ioannidis study" showing a #Covid19 death rate "only marginally higher than the standard flu viruses". I believe this is the study he's referring to. (1/16) medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
In the paper, Ioannidis conducts a meta-analysis of antibody surveys to determine how widespread Covid-19 is in different places and then compares the deaths associated with those places to arrive at an estimate of the IFR (see explainer) of 0.24%. (2/16) who.int/news-room/comm…
Part of the problem is many of these antibody surveys - including Ioannidis' own - have been criticised for using inaccurate tests and applying estimates to entire populations from too-small sample sizes. More on these surveys here, from May. (3/16) newsroom.co.nz/is-asymptomati…
Read 16 tweets
28 Apr 20
New Zealand wasn't ready for this pandemic, having scored 54 points out of a possible 100 on an international preparedness assessment and running our response off the "wrong plan". Given this, why/how have we managed to weather the storm so far? #Covid19
newsroom.co.nz/2020/04/29/114…
What you need to know: No country was truly prepared for a pandemic, as the global situation shows. The Global Health Security Index (GHSI), released in October, was the first comprehensive international assessment of pandemic preparedness. Just 5 countries scored above 75/100.
Although New Zealand came 35th, it barely met half of the GHSI criteria. It was found particularly lacking in the ability to detect a local outbreak of an emergent pathogen, but also struggled in health capacity and emergency planning categories.
Read 14 tweets

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