The Afghan debacle has re-set US foreign policy - to the narrow defence of US national security. It leaves Johnson’s foreign policy stance in ruins. 1/ In March the UK abandoned 75 years of commitment to defending “rules based international order” …socialeurope.eu/lost-an-empire…
2/ Instead the UK would enter “systemic competition” with Russia and China, aiming to shape the new order in space and cyber, and to duck and dive into the spaces created by US-Russian-China competition… 
3/ The implicit assumption, both in defence tech, military structures and geopolitics was that the UK would coat-tail on the USA, and distance itself from Europe… well Biden’s speech just signalled how stupid that assumption was
4/ The US has cut and run from Afghanistan. It has left NGOs, journalists, lawyers, educators etc, in the lurch… right now, in Kabul our allies have no idea how to get on a list, get to the airport, get on a plane...
5/ The short term questions are clear: the Afghan central bank chief suggests an inner group around Ghani simply double crossed everyone; other allegations of Afghan regional commanders “selling” capitals to the Taliban
6/ So where were the failures? US intelligence and diplomacy, followed by British intelligence, diplomacy and execution - we could have made our own preparations if we thought the USA was putting on a show to avoid panic..
7/ The urgent task is to create a *system* at the airport and some kind of process whereby tens of thousands of at-risk people can get to it. And as with the USMC at Hurricane Katrina, the movement has to be governed by supply, not demand…
8/ Tomorrow in the Commons we need more than hand-wringing. The Integrated Review was passed without serious debate. 'Global Britain' is a meaningless PR slogan. Our army is being downsized. Ditto our air transport capabilities…
9/ The lesson of Sunday is that the US is an unreliable ally, even under Democratic leadership, and strategically so since there is a chance every 4 years that they will put a clown/Russian asset in the White House…
10/ This is the subtext of Johnson trying to convene a G7 panic zoom call to ensure multilateral conditions were placed on recognising the Taliban govt. Yet Johnson declared multilateralism now optional.
11/ So today Raab is saying “building a liberal democracy proved impossible” - as if that’s what we were trying to do? Don’t accept the lie at this critical moment. Demand the truth.
12/ The truth is, to salvage anything other than a semi-state in Afghanistan we are now reliant on China, its client Pakistan and Russia. Raab acknowledged that. The world is irreversibly multipolar, 20 years after the victory of unipolar hubris - and the 'poles' are strong
14/ The USA remains strong. China immensely strengthened, both in C Asia and - as its propagandists (Global Times) point out - Taiwan/South China Sea. No American ally can now trust the Pentagon.
14a/ So Britain has chosen an impossible global position under Johnson and his Vote Leave government. Abandon Europe, to be abandoned strategically by America.
15/ We need a UK return to the defense of a rules-based international order, even at the price of mutual dependency with Europe + autonomy from USA. If you are in any doubt why one is needed, just switch to a livestream from Kabul Airport…
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