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18 Aug, 7 tweets, 3 min read
But #Kerala's #COVID19 cases showing a downward trend, though it is not so significant ...

See the 7 day moving average daily infections graph.

How we will behave in coming days will define our #COVID19 trajectory.

Please be responsible to you and your society!
Not sure what we are now witnessing is the 3rd wave or 2nd wave, maybe it is like 2 monsoon overlap each other here.

If Kerala can fully vaccinate its population, then we can negotiate next wave.

Kerala has the wherewithal to fast vaccinate, if it is made available!
Thanks to our robust health infrastructure and health workers, which are spread in a uniform manner at the breadth and width of our State, we never seen a crisis like North Indian States witnessed.

Yes, around 10 days, our system stretched to the limit during 2nd wave peak.
Still the casualties are a deep concern and also the breakthrough infections.

Hope we will vaccinate fast and tame this virus at the earliest.
Why I am saying that it may be a 3rd wave, look at the peaks at the first wave, second wave and now...it is showing 3 distinct waves.

Taken here 7 days moving average since May 2020.
Coming days will tell us whether this wave will diffuse or it is a lull before the storm!

So I am crossing my fingers & looking at the infection rate and fully vaccination progress.

END.
PS: Kerala tested around 1.38-1.40 lakh samples (55K RTPCR) during the peak of 2nd wave,ie, middle of May 2021 and now tests around 1.35-1.37 lakh samples (50K RTPCR)

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More from @jamewils

James Wilson Profile picture
3 Sep
What ails India’s coronavirus genome sequencing system

The country sequenced only 0.2% samples till date, one of the lowest in the world

Evidence based policy? How dare you? downtoearth.org.in/news/governanc…
To date, Maharashtra (14,003 samples) and Kerala (5,485 samples) have sequenced and analysed 23 % and 9 % of the country’s total volume analysed. 

Do these % makes any sense? Be worried
Take the case of Kerala. 5485 samples out of a total identified cases of 40,90,036.

That means only 0.13% of the samples genome sequenced.

Do this is enough to conclude that what Kerala is witnessing now is only because of DELTA alone?
Read 5 tweets
James Wilson Profile picture
20 Aug
UK total population (6.82 crores ) is almost double of Kerala's (3.47 crores).

UK fully vaccinated around 60.38 % of its total population & partially vaccinated 9.46%.

Meanwhile Kerala fully vaccinated only 19.6% of its total population & partially vaccinated 33.5%. #Thread
Unlike UK, Kerala is not sovereign & cannot give indemnity bond or export vaccines.

Kerala is at at the mercy of the Union Govt to get its vaccines.

If supply is ensured, Kerala would have long back vaccinated its whole adult population, we have the wherewithal to do it.
Now comes to the qn of infections and deaths.

UK on 18th Aug had 497.3 infections/million while Kerala is having 617.5 infections/million

UK had recorded 1.64 deaths per million while Kerala recorded 5.16 deaths per million.

Of course, our infection & deaths are a concern.
Read 14 tweets
James Wilson Profile picture
18 Aug
India so far fully vaccinated only 9.7% & partially vaccinated 22.7% of its total population.

If we are taking our 94 crores 18 plus adult population, the above figures will be 13.3% and 33.1% respectively.

Statewise progress can be easily comprehended from this map. Image
The States who have fully vaccinated more than 20% of their population are given in GREEN.

While the worst performing States with less than 5% fully vaccinated are given in PINK
The highlighted cells in the table accompanying the map shows the States which are performing below national average as far as vaccination is concerned.

Unless India Govt makes Herculean efforts to vaccinate the population there, we are facing a great risk against 3rd wave.
Read 9 tweets
James Wilson Profile picture
18 Aug
Kerala fully vaccinated 19.4% & partially vaccinated 32.1% of its total population.

At least 51.6% of its total population got a single jab.

77% of its population is 18 plus, which means Kerala has given a single jab to 67% of its eligible population.

Districtwise map is here Image
Kerala is having a tremendous job at both Malappuram & Palakkad Districts which are lagging on vaccination.

While Pathanamthitta & Wayanad are performing extremely well in vaccination
Please note that the map is shaded considering the % population who are fully vaccinated.

The figure in brackets is % of partially vaccinated.

To see the combined figure of the ones who got at least one single dose, see the 3rd column of TABLE.

Note: (Col 1 + Col 2 = Col 3)
Read 6 tweets
James Wilson Profile picture
16 Aug
This is the new spin...

Please go through archives and what Late Jaitely told when he first increased the excise duty in Modi 1 Government.

Also new agricultural cess is for paying off interests of oil bonds?

Please do some basic journalism ..
Understand that Government introduced/increased cess for denying State's eligible share.

Look at how ₹32.90 divided

Cess

Road & infrastructure cess - ₹18/lit
Agri infra/development cess - ₹2.50/lit

Surcharge

Special Addl Excise Duty - ₹11/lit

Basic Excise - ₹1.40/l
All states together will get a share only 41% of ₹1.40/l from each litre of petrol.

While Union takes away ₹31.50/l as cess & surcharges and ₹0.83/l, ie, 59% of ₹1.40/l collected as BED.

So they get ₹32.33/l from ₹32.90/l collected!

Will FM publish a white paper?
Read 5 tweets
James Wilson Profile picture
14 Aug
Once unleashed, communalism always breaks nations.

It took the sheen off India’s renaissance in the 1930s; it will again corrode new India’s energies.

It has momentum that we can only pretend to control.

@pbmehta cautions, but we are on a high! indianexpress.com/article/opinio…
The logic of Partition and the logic of freedom are fundamentally incompatible.

One traps us in compulsory identities, the other lets us define ourselves.

One sees fellow citizens as a potential threat, the other as a resource to build something special.
Our battles are like a rerun of the 1930s — cow protection, love jihad, new excuses to hate.

We will now complete the logic of Partition, we said — deepen the divisions, the sense of victimhood and bigotry that tore apart the soul of India.
Read 4 tweets

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