Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW2 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I address the most common dilemmas in the FPL community before we head into GW2:

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Q: Who to captain this gameweek – Mohamed Salah or Bruno Fernandes?

Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) comes into this gameweek being top for big chance involvements and penalty area touches among all players to have played so far. He was a constant menace against Norwich and I expect...

... the same to be the case again this week. I’m in the Salah captain camp this week. Here’s why:

*Salah is the bookies favourite for a goal this week. Liverpool are given a higher probability by the bookies to keep a clean sheet and are also given a better chance to score...

... 2.5+ goals than Man United.

*I expect the home crowd to be a factor. When I look into the data in the last 4 seasons preceding to 2020/21, on average 56.4% goals were scored at home and 43.6% away. We saw that in gameweek 1 alone recently where 61.7% of the goals were...

... scored at home and 38.3% away. Similar pattern is being followed by Man United who in the preceding three seasons before 2020/21 scored 55.8% of their goals at home and 44.2% away. Liverpool's data is even more extreme having scored 58.9% of their goals at home in the...

... three seasons preceding 2020/21 as compared to 41.1% away.

*Man United were actually ranked fifth from xG from open play this gameweek yet scored five times as Bruno Fernandes (£12.1m) was exceptionally clinical. I think they are a safe bet to score two or three but...

... I’d be surprised to see them hit the heights of last week.

*I don’t think there’s much difference between the numbers of Burnley and Southampton having looked at their performances against the top teams last season. Southampton against the likes...

... of Man United, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leicester and Spurs at home conceded 3.1 big chances per game with a xGc of 1.9. Burnley against the same opposition away conceded 2.4 big chances per game with a xGc of 2. Both are equally poor as per the underlying data.

Q: Who is the best Ilkay Gündoğan replacement?

Gündoğan has been pictured back in training so this is written assuming that he is ruled out by Pep Guardiola in the press conference before Norwich should he decide not to risk him. My number one pick would be...

... Mason Greenwood (£7.5m) here. I think he has the highest ceiling for FPL points among other picks in this price bracket. Southampton were ranked second worst for xG conceded from open play this week so there is a good chance that Greenwood can haul in this gameweek itself...

... He’s playing up front and also has a share of corners, having shared corners with Shaw in the previous match. If you already own him, then I’d look at Saïd Benrahma (£6.1m). West Ham accumulated the highest number of big chances this gameweek and were the standout team...

... from an attacking point of view statistically. They recorded the highest xG this week as well. Benrahma was involved in a couple of big chances himself, and benefited from being West Ham's most advanced player as Antonio occasionally dropped deep.

Q: What to do with Harvey Barnes and Diogo Jota?

Harvey Barnes (£7.0m) drew majority of the attention from a fantasy point of view in the game being played at the King Power Stadium. Unfortunately for his investors, Barnes had a quiet game where he registered just the...

... single shot in the box and created no chances. He was playing advanced on the left in a 3-4-3 to begin with but Rodgers later switched to a 3-5-2 in the second half. After the formation change, he was playing as a striker with Vardy before he gave way to Kelechi Iheanacho...

... Leicester had a low xG and didn't really create much all game. I’d make the swap to Greenwood or Grealish if you have the cash but if you don’t, then I’ll give him the Norwich fixture in GW3 before I sell. Diogo Jota (£7.5m) registered two big chance involvements in the...

... game against Norwich but his problem lies in the security of starts, not in the underlying numbers. Roberto Firmino got on the scoresheet this week and there is a genuine chance of him starting which might mean Jota might get benched. This is a tricky one though and a...

... decision that is best left till Saturday morning in case we get some early team news pre deadline as Liverpool have the early kickoff. Given Jota’s upside, I wouldn’t sell him unless we hear any concrete news about his possible benching. In case we hear no news, I’d keep...

... him – particularly because it looks like he’s a certain starter for GW4 should Salah miss out due to the quarantine restrictions.

Q: Is Paul Pogba the real deal?

Paul Pogba (£7.6m) is a real bandwagon this week. He had an xA of 0.57 yet managed to record four assists. He created five chances in total, four of which were assists. I think he’s a good option to have, but he’s the kind of player I expect...

... to tick along in terms of his points rather than deliver the big hauls like he did this gameweek. I firmly believe that Greenwood, Bruno and Shaw is the United trio to own at the moment. I say that because I looked into some of Pogba’s historical numbers last season when...

... he played on the left and the numbers were nothing to write home about. Pogba played six times on the left gameweek 31 onwards last season – he created ten chances and was involved in two big chances. Those numbers aren’t bad but they aren’t too great either...

... I don’t think Pogba’s a bad option to own but I just think the other three Man United options to have are superior.

Q: Is it worth buying Heung Min Son this GW?

Son Heung Min (£10.0m) was at the heart of everything Spurs did in the game. He was top among all Spurs players for shots and was also their most advanced player on the field. He's also on corners so it's extremely evident that...

... he's the man to own from Spurs at the moment if anyone. He’s a good buy if you can afford to get him ahead of a fixture run which reads Wolves, Watford and Crystal Palace. He could have great joy this weekend in particular – against the high line that Wolves are...

... likely to implement. It’s clear to see the defensive strategy being implemented by Wolves this season, with Bruno Lage very keen to use a high line. No player was caught offside more times than Vardy (4) this weekend which further highlights this point...

... However, Wolves are new to this strategy and should they make any mistake, Son will be looking to pounce. However, given the structure of most FPL teams that I see on my socials at the moment, I believe that most managers will find it hard to fit in Son unless they sell...

... someone like a Bruno, Salah or Mahrez. This is why I believe it’s just best to wait on Son at the moment. One more week of information will go a long way.

Q: In this section, I analyze Leeds v Everton.

Everton were ranked second for xG from open play this GW. After a disappointing performance in the first half, the Toffees put in a much better showing in the second half. Dominic Calvert Lewin (£8.0m) was ranked top among all...

... players for shots in the box this gameweek, further highlighting how new manager Rafael Benítez is building his team around him in his post-match comments:

""To hear the new manager has come in to create more chances for me to score goals is music to my ears. You saw...

... with some of the crosses that I received that I flicked or just didn't get to. My target is to outdo myself last season."

Leeds and Brighton are Everton’s upcoming opponents and it’s worth noting that both have good defensive numbers at home this calendar year...

... I don’t think the next two fixtures for him are the easiest, which is why I’m willing to wait on my Ings to Calvert Lewin transfer till GW4. Ings faces Chelsea, Everton and Man United from GW4, at the same time when Calvert Lewin faces Burnley, Aston Villa and Norwich...

... Richarlison (£7.6m) despite his 11 point haul is best overlooked at the moment. The Brazilian has had a tendency to blow hot and cold in the past, accumulating the occasional haul only to follow it up with meagre returns. There’s also the fact that Benítez said that he...

... plans to give Richarlison an “extended break” next month so it makes little sense to bring a player in just to transfer him out very shortly after. It was worth noting that with the introduction of new signing Andros Townsend (£5.5m) into the team, Everton's play was...

... directed more towards the right flank than the left flank this week where they managed to create twice as many chances than they did on the left. This is potentially bad news for Lucas Digne (£5.5m) should this trend continue in the matches to come. However, Digne's owners...

... should take comfort in the fact that he was still on the majority of set pieces despite Townsend's introduction this week. He took five of Everton's six corners which should help him in his bonus accumulation whenever Everton are to keep a clean sheet...

... Raphinha’s (£6.5m) owners were unlucky not to see their man register any returns at the weekend. The Brazilian was involved in two big chances yet failed to register an assist or goal as was so often the case last season. I still think he’s a terrific asset to own and...

... honestly he’s going to make a mockery out of his price tag sooner rather than later – he has recorded 17 big chances in 19 matches this calendar year which just highlights his consistency.

Q: In this section, I cover Manchester City’s attack.

Man City created quite a few chances this gameweek but were wasteful. They were the biggest underperformers according to the xG model, in terms of the difference between actual and expected goal output this week...

... Jack Grealish (£8.0m) had the best numbers from a City point of view. He had the highest number of shots in the box and penalty area touches. Riyad Mahrez (£9.0m) had a big chance to score but unfortunately for his owners, fluffed his opportunity. I fully expect Man City...

... to bounce back strongly this week. They are the most likely team to score 2.5+ goals according to the bookies. Most Man City fans on their forums expect Mahrez to start, particularly if Gündogan is injured as he has one less slot to compete for. It’s also interesting to...

... note that Norwich conceded twice as many chances on their left than the right this gameweek which should bode well for Mahrez. If you don’t own a City asset this gameweek, then I wouldn’t tear my team apart to get a Man City asset as it’s not obvious who the player to...

... own is at the moment. At the same time, I wouldn’t be selling a City asset either if I owned one.

Q: In this section, I assess Emi Buendía and Danny Ings.

Here's a stat I didn't expect to see before the gameweek started - only Villa had a worse xG from open play than Palace this gameweek. They accumulated just the three shots in the box and zero big chances from open...

... play. Danny Ings (£8.0m) scored from the penalty spot but that was his only shot. Emi Buendía (£6.5m) made little to no impact on proceedings as well. Despite being on set pieces, he did not create a chance or register a shot in the box which is worrying for his owners...

... However, the solace for Buendía and Ings owners lies in the fact that Newcastle conceded double the number of big chances of any other team this gameweek. Hopefully, this should allow them to make merry against what looks like a leaky defence!

Here is my Fantasy5 team for the GW! I’ve already spoken about DCL and his potential in the weeks to come. I have picked Groß as I believe Brighton have a good chance of a clean sheet this week and he’s on penalties which gives him a realistic chance of beating his points target.

A big thank you to my friend @fplwaleed who has been helping me with my research this season. Make sure to follow him to show your support!

I also do a weekly podcast (@TheFPLWire) with @lateriser12 and @zophar666 where we cover everything FPL relevant for the GW. Catch the latest episode before GW2 here: 👇

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