Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW1 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my first preview thread of the season where I address the most common dilemmas in the FPL community before we head into GW1:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

Feel free to like and share if you find it to be helpful ❤️

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Q: Kostas Tsimikas or Diogo Jota – who offers more value as the third Liverpool player? Is it worth getting both and getting rid of Trent Alexander Arnold?

This is a pivotal question to how our team structures will look like heading into the season. I was all set to begin...

... with Jota but the Robertson injury has thrown a curveball. There are merits to picking both. I lay down the merits of picking Jota first:

Salah v Jota

20/21 (Stats per 90)

Shots in the box: 2.8 v 3.1
Big chances: 0.9 v 1.1
Non pen xG: 0.5 v 0.7
FPL points: 6.75 v 7

As you can see in the comparison above, Jota is actually out-doing Mo Salah in terms of underlying data provided that he’s on the field and gets a regular run of starts. I think for now, it’s his shirt to lose heading into the season despite Firmino’s brace in the recent...

... friendly. Norwich come into the season having their pre-season severely affected by COVID. Norwich had an expected goals conceded of 52.5 which was the 9th worst in the Championship. The fact that Norwich conceded only 36 goals though meant that they overperformed their...

... expected goals conceded by a massive 17 goals. The lack of preparation and a defence prone to facing a lot of big chances is why I like Jota this week. However, the opportunity of having a playable £4.0m Liverpool defender is something which I find very hard to pass up...

... Most FPL managers are planning to wildcard in the period between GW4 and 8 which is why even if Tsimikas is available for three fixtures, he has more than done his job for his price as he does allow you to have a stronger squad overall. He was on some of the corners in the...

... recent friendly as well. This bodes well for him in the Premier League should this trend continue. Liverpool are the bookies favourites for a clean sheet this week – and the numbers back them up. I think the loss of Emi Buendía is huge. He created 3.1 chances per game and...

... had a 43% goal involvement in Norwich’s goals last season. In fact, Norwich scored just six goals in seven games in which Buendía wasn’t involved. Trent is a non-negotiable for my side. Look how far and away he is ahead of all other defenders this calendar year:

Big chances created: (defenders in 2021)

Trent 11
Cresswell 9
Coufal 8
Digne 6
Shaw 5
Robertson 4

He has massive potential to haul big given how friendly Liverpool’s fixtures are to begin with. He’s well rested over the Euros too. It makes me happy to see him owned by...

... just 32.7% of FPL managers at the time of writing. This is your opportunity to get ahead of the 70% who don’t!

Q: Which two £4.5 defenders do I like the most?

The one that I like the most heading into the season is Brighton’s Joël Veltman. Despite the fact that he is likely to play as the centre back, I think he is a great option to begin with:

Dunk v Veltman (as a CB) v Webster

Shots in the box per 90: 0.8 v 0 v 0.7
Chances created per 90: 0.3 v 0.7 v 0.17
Baseline BPS per 90: 13.9 v 13.2 v 12

As seen in the comparison above Veltman accumulates bonus at a decent clip as a centre back. Brighton in my opinion have...

... the best £4.5m defensive assets in the game. According to the expected data, they were only behind Man City and Chelsea for xGc last season which suggests they were highly unfortunate not to concede fewer goals. They have a good set of fixtures to begin with as well, which...

... should help Veltman’s cause. The other £4.5m defender I like is Arsenal’s Ben White:

Arsenal GW 1-15 v GW 16-38

(20/21)

Shots conceded per game: 12 v 10.2
Big chances conceded per game: 1.7 v 1.3
Clean sheets per game: 0.2 v 0.4

If Arsenal carry forward their defensive form that they have shown this calendar year, then Ben White could be a bargain.

Q: BruNo or BruYes? Is it worth buying Greenwood or is he too risky?

With the likes of Tsimikas and Jota available to us as budget enablers and Harry Kane not being an option, I’m firmly in the BruYes camp now. At this point, I’d like to show you these two comparisons I made:

Bruno against Che/Mci/Liv/Lei/Ars v Bruno against the rest

20/21 (stats per 90)

Goals 0.4 v 0.6
Chances created 1.7 v 3.2
Assists 0.1 v 0.5
FPL pts 5.4 v 7.8

Bruno isn't playing any of the tougher teams until GW8. In the first 7 reverse fixtures, he averaged 9.8 pts per game!

Bruno GW 1-19 v 20-38

Key passes per 90: 2.7 v 2.3
xG per 90: 0.58 v 0.43
Penalties: 6 v 4
Non pen xG per 90: 0.32 v 0.25

*Slight fall in creativity due to Shaw's share on set pieces
*Pens played a big part in xG decline
*Non pen xG was similar

Despite a drop in his FPL points per game in the second half of the season, Bruno’s underlying numbers were still encouraging which is why he’s worth his selection. He further offers a good option to rotate with Salah for captaincy in GW3 and 4 with Man United playing...

... Wolves and Newcastle when Salah plays Chelsea and Leeds. Greenwood I think is a shrewd pick at the start of the season. I expect Martial and Cavani to share minutes as Man United’s forwards this season and Greenwood to play on the right with Sancho on the left until...

... Rashford is back. Having already scored in the recent friendly, it looks as if it is his shirt to lose. Another point worth mentioning here about the Leeds defence is that their defensive improvement in the second half of the season was largely due to their home form. In...

... the second half away from home, Leeds were 20th for shots conceded and 16th for big chances/xG conceded per game. Leeds when playing away is a good fixture to target for attackers.

Q: Is Heung Min Son worth selecting in the GW1 squad?

Son with and without Kane

20/21

Mins per shot in the box: 69 v 90
Mins per big chance: 125 v 360
Spurs non pen xG per game: 1.4 v 0.4

While Son could benefit from being on penalties, Spurs struggle for creativity in recent times without Kane which has an adverse impact on Son. It will also be interesting to see how Spurs line up tactically under Nuno Espirito Santo who is generally known to be a defensive...

... manager. With Kane’s selection still in doubt, I’m willing to wait on Spurs before I invest despite a good run of fixtures between GW2 to 4. There’s also this to consider:

Son Heung Min

20/21

GW 1-19 v GW 20-38

Shots in the box per 90: 1.47 v 1.07
Big chances per 90: 1.06 v 0.28

Fair to say Son has not been the same asset this year. It could be due to burnout or for playing under two different managers. The point being that the South Korean...

... needs to show some kind of form before I can justify a hefty outlay.

Q: Is doubling up on Michail Antonio and Said Benrahma too risky?

Team xG

This calendar year

Man City 50.8
Chelsea 41.7
Liverpool/Man United 41.6
Leicester 37.9
West Ham 37.2
Spurs 36.2
Leeds 33.3

Look how well West Ham have been faring for xG this calendar year, accumulating nearly 1.7 xG per game. Antonio averaged a very healthy 2.4 shots in the box and 0.88 big chances per start in the PL last season. Personally for me, there’s never been any doubt about his pedigree...

... Concerns have always been about his fitness. Said Benrahma is more of a flair pick but he’s looked really good in the friendlies and according to many West Ham fans, looks in good shape to fill the Lingard shaped hole from last season. He’s been their standout pick in...

... pre-season. What interests me is that there is an outside chance of him potentially being on penalties – in a recent friendly game, he was recently seen grabbing the ball to take the penalty until Noble decided to take it. Noble isn’t a starter for West Ham while Rice...

... missed West Ham’s last penalty so their penalty area pecking order is very much up in the air. In the reverse opening three fixtures that West Ham have this season, they averaged at least two goals a game last season so I don’t mind doubling up on their attack based on...

... their previous record and pre-season form.

Q: Is Callum Wilson a good differential?

I think Callum Wilson is a shrewd shout to begin with at the start of the season. With Saint Maximin, Willock and Wilson all being available, Newcastle look like a different team. They accumulated 29 big chances in the last 11 GWs...

... at the end of 20/21, a spell during which they were 3rd for big chances and 4th for xG. Further, Wilson tends to do really well in terms of FPL goal involvement. He tops this elite list of players who have a big chance of being involved in a goal/assist whenever their team...

... scores which sets them apart from the rest:

FPL goal involvement %

20/21 (players with 1000+ mins)

Wilson 58
Kane 57
Wood 56
Bamford 55
DCL 54
Salah 48
Bruno 47
Son 46

Q: Which assets are worth picking from Aston Villa?

xG conceded this calendar year

WBA 44.4
Sheff Utd 41.9
Aston Villa 40.8
Southampton 40.7
Newcastle 37.2
Burnley 36.8

Villa's defensive numbers have been on the decline for a while. Villa recorded 8 clean sheets in their opening 14 games with a clean sheet % of 57%. This calendar year, they recorded 7 clean sheets in 24 games at a clean sheet % of 29%, highlighting their defensive regression...

... This is precisely why I don't think Martínez or a Villa defender is worth starting with!

Ollie Watkins 20/21

Big chances: 24
Big chances converted: 11
Conversion rate = 45.8%

Danny Ings 20/21 + 19/20

Big chances = 35
Big chances converted = 21
Conversion rate = 60%

Dean Smith has suggested that Villa are likely to play two up front. I prefer picking Ings over Watkins despite him being £0.5m pricier due to the three reasons highlighted below:

*As highlighted above, Ings is more clinical

*According to the bookies odds, Ings is almost 50% more likely to score than Watkins

*There is a huge chance that Ings will be on penalties, particularly if Villa sell El Ghazi as suspected

Q: Is Ivan Toney worth selecting despite being unproven at Premier League level?

Priced at £6.5m, Brentford’s talisman Ivan Toney comes into the season as the most highly owned forward in the game. His price and ownership incline me to believe that despite him not being...

... proven at Premier League level, he is a low risk asset to own. Toney scored 33 and assisted 10 of Brentford’s goals with a very high goal involvement rate of 51%. 16 of these goals came from inside the six yard box which further highlights his predatory instincts...

With an xG of 28.69 and xG per game of 0.59, Toney managed to outperform his xG by almost four to five goals. These numbers indicate that he’s a clinical finisher. He was also top among all Brentford players for big chances created which adds another dimension to his game...

... The fact he is clinical, and creates big chances for his team mates, is likely to secure him bonus points whenever he gets an attacking return. There’s a real feel-good factor around Brentford at the moment. They come into the season having had the best pre-season...

... preparation of all the promoted teams. Brentford were the highest goal scorers in the Championship last season. Their xG (76.2) was healthy, averaging 1.66 xG per game. Half of their goals were scored away from home too. This highlights the fact there is no change in...

... attacking philosophy whether they’re playing home or away. Even in four of the games they had against Premier League sides in the cups last season, they averaged two goals per match. This suggests that they adopt the same attacking approach regardless of the opposition.

Another point worth mentioning is that Brentford’s system is heavily reliant on their striker. The Bees have had three 20+ goal forwards in three successive seasons. This is great for Ivan Toney because it means that the significant majority of chances are likely to fall to him.

Here is my Fantasy5 team for the first GW! I’ve already spoken about Antonio and how exceptional his attacking numbers were last season. Alonso was great in Chelsea's game vs Villareal and with Chilwell yet to feature in pre-season, he looks good to start vs Palace.

In my previous four threads, I wrote a preview on each of the promoted sides + an overview of all my pre-season work so far. You can check the threads through the links down below:

https://twitter.com/BigManBakar/status/1425730018777485313

https://twitter.com/BigManBakar/status/1425566318976188425

https://twitter.com/BigManBakar/status/1425391330142867457

https://twitter.com/BigManBakar/status/1424095007804469253

I also do a weekly podcast (@TheFPLWire) with @lateriser12 and @zophar666 where we cover everything FPL relevant for the GW. Catch the final episode before GW1 here: 👇

Kindly like and retweet the thread if you can! Do share your feedback as always, and follow me on my Instagram ahead of the new season to stay plugged in for more FPL updates!

instagram.com/bigmanbakar

THANK YOU! ❤️