Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW3 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I address the most common dilemmas in the FPL community before we head into GW3:

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All the data that I use as part of my analysis is taken from @ffh_hq. You can get access to such data and all my weekly articles including my team reveals in which I share my own transfer/captaincy thoughts by signing up through the link below:

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Q: In this section, I write about Michail Antonio, Dominic Calvert Lewin and Danny Ings.

It’s only fair to begin with Michail Antonio (£7.7m) this week. After two GWs, West Ham are top for big chances and xG in the league. Tellingly, they also have the best xG from open play...

... Antonio has a huge part to play in that. After two games, he is top for big chance involvements (7) in the league – the next best player, Salah has four. Hence it is no surprise to see Antonio top the charts for xG, xG non penalty and expected goal involvement among all...

... players in the league. Which now brings me to Dominic Calvert Lewin (£8.2m). Calvert Lewin is second for the same set of statistics in the league. He’s on penalties too and Everton, after the first two GWs, are among the top five teams for xG. It's early days but given...

... their numbers and fixtures, it's becoming evident that owning Calvert Lewin and Antonio is the way to go in the coming weeks. Both have iterated their desire to score 20+ goals this season, which should be music to the ears of potential investors. Everton now face a...

... Brighton side who have been very solid defensively. This can be highlighted in the fact that Brighton have conceded the least xG from open play after Chelsea this season. They were also best for xG conceded at home last season. This is one of the reasons why I don’t...

... think Calvert Lewin isn’t a priority transfer this week and it’s completely alright to wait till next week when Everton host a struggling Burnley side. The odds agree with me – 18 other players have better odds than Calvert Lewin to score. Now I want to talk about...

... Danny Ings (£8.1m). In my opinion, the Villa forward has been lucky to have scored twice. Villa have scored with each one of their four shots on target in the first two Gameweeks, despite having an xG from open play of just 0.27 which is the second worst in the league...

...11 forwards have had more shots in the box than Ings this season, while even Shane Duffy (£4.1m) has had more than double the number of shots in the box than Ings in the first two Gameweeks. I’m giving Ings one more week in my team but I don’t think the Brentford fixture...

... is particularly easy either. Brentford are the top five teams for xG conceded so far, and have conceded just the single big chance across two games. They restricted Palace to just five shots in the box this week, and have richly deserved their recent defensive returns.

Q: Ivan Toney – keep or sell?

Ivan Toney (£6.5m) hasn’t delivered according to expectations till date which is why a lot of FPL managers are already thinking of getting rid. “He will give us goals in to time” is what his manager, Thomas Frank said after the Palace game but...

... the FPL community is reluctant to show such patience. Statistically, it is important to note that he has not had a single big chance in the opening two Gameweeks. Having said that, it’s important to note that Toney was among the top three underperformers according to the...

... xG statistical model this Gameweek. I would suggest giving him one week if you can afford to keep him. I would get rid of him in two scenarios: The first is if you don’t own Michail Antonio and have no other route of bringing him in. The second is to keep faith for one...

... more week before upgrading him to Calvert Lewin in the next. If you own both Antonio and Calvert Lewin, then I’d give Toney the next two to three games before making a call.

Q: In this section, I cover Chelsea.

Chelsea posted some real eye-catching numbers this week. Romelu Lukaku (£11.5m) had the highest number of shots in the box, the best xG and the best expected involvement in the entire Gameweek so could consider himself unlucky not to come...

... out of the game with a bigger haul. Personally, I would still wait before investing in him because I’d want him to be a captaincy option for him to represent value. With his fixtures, the only time I would possibly consider captaining him is in Gameweek 4, a time when...

... one could argue that Mohamed Salah (£12.6m) against Leeds and Bruno Fernandes (£12.1m) against Newcastle are equally good alternatives. I believe that someone like a Calvert Lewin could possibly match Lukaku over the next few Gameweeks. Should that be the case, then the...

... funds spent elsewhere is where you make the gains from ignoring Lukaku. Mason Mount (£7.5m) also caught the eye having created three big chances this week. Reece James (£5.6m) also had a very strong game statistically – he had two big chance involvements and 42 touches...

... in the final third. I’m willing to wait to see if this Arsenal game was an anomaly for James attacking wise bearing in mind that Reece had four big chance involvements put together in the league in 20/21 and halved that in one game against Arsenal alone...

... Nevertheless, Chelsea continue to be an elite defence. No team has a better xG from open play conceded than them in the two games played so far.

Q: When is the best time to wildcard?

I like the idea of going early this season. Whether that’s in the upcoming international break or in Gameweek 7 depends on the state of your team. Ideally, I believe with the way fixture swings are set up, Gameweek 7 looks to be the...

... best time. Leeds, Man City and Chelsea move into an excellent run of fixtures from Gameweek 7, a time when fixtures for Man United and Liverpool start getting a bit tougher. I say that because with Kane, Lukaku, Salah, Son, De Bruyne and Bruno Fernandes all in play it's...

... imperative to own the right premiums at the right time. It makes it all the more important to have a long-term defence along with tried and tested budget midfielders and forwards as you wouldn't want to be using your transfers in low priority moves! Whoever...

... owns the right premiums will be the real winner. If Cristiano Ronaldo becomes a factor at Man City, then wildcarding in Gameweek 4 becomes all the more tempting. I’m open to the idea, particularly because it would also mean that I can jump on all the assets that...

... I want long-term as early as possible, rather than risk bringing them in for a higher price later on in the piece.

Q: Are Wolves the new Brighton?

Only Liverpool have had more shots this season than Wolves which makes it all the more surprising that they haven’t scored this season. To be precise, Wolves have had 42 shots in total, 26 of them being in the box with a combined xG of 3.04...

... yet haven’t opened their account yet. Adama Traore (£6.0m) has a huge part to play in that having accumulated half of that xG alone. He could be a genuine asset at that price should his finishing improve. He’s playing really advanced this season and is only behind Salah...

... for penalty area touches. Raúl Jiménez (£7.5m) is ranked second for shots in the box and has created seven chances in the league this season. He hasn’t returned so far, but I believe he will become a very popular option the minute he starts returning, as Wolves have an...

... excellent fixture run from GW4-14 where they don’t face any of last season's top five. Amidst all the defenders talk, Nélson Semedo (£4.9m) is going firmly under the radar. He was playing practically as a right winger against Spurs and had the highest number of touches in...

... the final third (49) among all defenders this Gameweek.

Q: In this section, I analyze overperforming defences.

I think this has gone a bit under the radar as Liverpool have recorded two successive clean sheets but I don’t think they have been solid defensively. They have conceded three big chances in two Gameweeks and nine more...

... teams have had a better xG conceded than them. Trent-Alexander Arnold (£7.5m) has created the highest number of chances this season and of course still remains a very strong option, but do expect some regression in defensive points soon. Another team that has recorded...

... two clean sheets yet not looked convincing is Spurs. You could argue that their fixtures were difficult but it’s still interesting to note that no team has conceded more shots than Spurs in the first two weeks which also makes them by far the biggest overperformer when it...

... comes to variance between expected and actual goals conceded. Watford and Crystal Palace in the next two give them a very decent chance of a clean sheet according to the odds but the underlying data says otherwise.

Q: In this section, I analyze underperforming defences.

Firstly, I talk about the Everton defence. In my opinion, Lucas Digne's (£5.5m) owners have been a bit hard done by so far. Everton have conceded the fewest number of shots in the box after Man Utd, Chelsea and...

... Man City this season yet have conceded in both games. Individual errors have led to goals and they have really missed their best centre back, Ben Godfrey. Godfrey is expected to be available very soon so I expect the clean sheet points to come. I’d like to add here that...

... there was a concern earlier in the season that Digne might be sharing set pieces with Townsend – it’s worth pointing out that Digne has taken 10 out of 11 corners and is still creating chances at a decent clip. Now I’d like to talk about Luke Shaw (£5.5m)...

...Defensively, Man Utd are ranked best for shots in the box conceded (6) in the past two GWs. However, they are conceding an abnormal amount of big chances (3) relative to their shots in the box conceded. Surprisingly enough, none of the big chances they have conceded have...

... been converted as yet! They are another team which have been solid in general apart from the occasional lapse in concentration which they need to iron out. Attacking wise, Shaw has done alright and is ranked among the top five defenders for expected assists.

Q: In this section, I discuss Raphinha’s potential against Burnley.

No midfielder had more shots than Raphinha (6) in Gameweek 2. The Brazilian has recorded 17 big chances in 20 matches this calendar year which just highlights his consistency in recent times. The fact that...

... Burnley are ranked second worst in the league for shots and xG conceded this week tells me that they are there for the taking. Further, it’s worth noting that Burnley have a problem defensively on their left flank having conceded the highest number of chances down that...

... region last season. That problem doesn't seem to be addressed and Burnley have conceded the second highest number of chances down that flank again. Raphinha will be operating in that region fully expecting to benefit from Burnley's weakness.

Here is my Fantasy5 team for the GW! I’ve already spoken about Antonio and his potential in the weeks to come. I have picked Groß as I believe that the fact that he has penalties in his locker gives him a decent chance of beating his points target of 6.5.

A big thank you to my friend @fplwaleed who has been contributing to my article and helping me with my research this season. Make sure to follow him to show your support!

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