Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW4 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I address the most common dilemmas in the FPL community before we head into GW4:

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Q: Is it worth taking a hit to get Cristiano Ronaldo?

In my opinion, Ronaldo is the best captaincy option in Gameweek 4 and 6 which is why I don’t mind taking a hit to get him in. Among the premium assets, he has the most favorable fixtures at home in both of these upcoming...

... Gameweeks, which is pertinent because of a trend I notice: In the last four seasons before 20/21 (before COVID), on average 56.4% goals were scored at home and 43.6% away. In the first three GWs of 21/22, 62.4% goals have been scored at home and 37.6% away...

... Home advantage is definitely a thing again. This needs to be a major consideration for captaincy! This is of course, pending Man United's press conference but given that Ronaldo has already clocked a few training sessions, I would be very surprised if he didn't start...

... In my opinion, he couldn't have handpicked a better fixture to debut in. In my opinion, he's the standout captaincy option due to the following reasons:

*He is 71% likely to score according to the odds, which makes him comfortably the best for anytime goalscorer this week

*Newcastle have conceded a penalty in each game this season and he is likely to be on penalties

*Newcastle are second worst for big chances and xG conceded this season. In fact, Newcastle recorded an expected goals conceded of 3.54 in the previous Gameweek against Southampton...

... which was the second worst of all teams to have played this season. Chances should be aplenty for Ronaldo

*Newcastle are also ranked third worst for chances conceded down the centre, while United are top for chances created down the centre which is great for Ronaldo...

... as he'll be sniffing in an around a central position. One counter argument to not owning Ronaldo is to captain Salah in Gameweek 4 and 6 when Liverpool are playing away to Leeds and Brentford. Not only are these two games away, which goes against my home/away consideration...

... I expect both these teams to give Liverpool a decent game:

Leeds against last season's top four

(20/21)

Home v Away

Shots in the box conceded per game: 11.5 v 17.3
Big chances conceded per game: 0.5 v 4.8
xG conceded per game: 1.2 v 3.2

There is a huge disparity in the data and it seems as if Leeds seem to raise their game against the top sides at home. This was without the crowds last season and I suspect with the crowds back, they might be even more up for it. Brentford, meanwhile, have recorded some...

... really impressive numbers this season – only Man City have conceded fewer big chances than them. I’d back Ronaldo in his fixtures over Salah here.

Q: What will be the impact of Ronaldo on Mason Greenwood’s, Bruno Fernandes’ and Luke Shaw's performances?

I’d firstly like to start this section by highlighting Greenwood’s overperformance in recent weeks. No midfielder has overperformed more this season as per the xG...

... statistical model. However, his numbers have been on par with Bruno Fernandes:

Greenwood v Bruno

(First three Gameweeks)

Shots: 11 v 9
Shots in the box: 7 v 5
Big chances: 1 v 2
xG: 0.97 v 1.30
Chances created: 4 v 6
Big chances created: 1 v 1
xA: 0.71 v 0.81

Bruno Fernandes

Worth £12m without penalties?

(This calendar year)

*Without penalties, he'd have just 6 big chances in 24 starts. 20 midfielders in the league fared better
*13 midfielders have a better xG from open play
*8 midfielders have a better chance created per 90 ratio

I don’t think Bruno will be worth his price tag should he surrender penalties to Ronaldo. 45% of his goals in the Premier League have come from penalties. This is particularly relevant given that Man United are averaging over 12 penalties over the last three seasons...

... However, he is still best for xA open play in this calendar year despite surrendering corners to Shaw and Greenwood so he’s likely to be a frequent assister. As there is no historical data to back this up, one has to make reasonable assumptions to predict how the...

... introduction of Ronaldo will affect Bruno and Greenwood. For the sake of my analysis, the reasonable assumption that I’m making is that Man United might choose to play in a very similar way that they did so with Cavani in the side last season:

Bruno with and without Cavani:

Mins per chances created: 45 v 29
Mins per big chance created: 164 v 151
Mins per shot in the box: 99 v 56
Mins per big chance: 493 v 117

As you can see, Bruno’s goal threat plummeted in the presence of Cavani. This could be down to the fact that Bruno was doing more of a job tracking back than usual, which might be the case with the introduction of Ronaldo as well.

Greenwood with and without Cavani:

Mins per chances created: 167 v 120
Mins per big chance created: 501 v 331
Mins per shot in the box: 63 v 34
Mins per big chance: 167 v 189

Greenwood scored just once in the six games that Cavani started despite starting in all six games...

... as the right winger. In the presence of Ronaldo, Greenwood may not get the opportunity to shoot as much as he normally does as was the case when he was playing with Cavani. What’s noticeable here is that his creativity dipped as well, which means that perhaps he was seeing...

... much less of the ball. Only Alexander Arnold from among the defenders has created more chances than Shaw this calendar year so his pedigree is proven despite the fact that he is yet to register an assist this season...

... The emergence of Ronaldo will only add to his appeal as he will have a quality target to aim at with his crosses.

Q: When is the best time to wildcard?

I don’t think there should be a set strategy here. Generally, I like the idea of going a bit early every season but I see a lot of people are keen to wait for a bit longer this time around. Both Gameweek 7 (with the good fixture swings...

... for Leeds, Man City and Chelsea and poor fixture swings for Man United, West Ham and Liverpool) and Gameweek 13/14 (with the good fixture swings for Man United, Leicester, Liverpool and Spurs and poor fixture swings for Chelsea, Everton and Villa) seem like...

... good opportunities to wildcard. By waiting till at least Gameweek 7, you give yourself some more time to get information and data which could potentially lead to more informed decision making. If you don't think that your team is too far off from what you would consider...

... the ideal wildcard team, then you can hold the wildcard for later as there will be better times to maximize the gain you can make between a pre and post wildcard team. Having said that, the optimal time of using a wildcard is mostly team dependent. For example, should...

... the Brazilians be ruled out this week or should there be any concrete news of a Firmino injury, a lot more managers would be tempted to wildcard. I don’t mind that as long as it would suit your team. Taking a -12 hit is what I’d consider to be the maximum limit for a...

... wildcard but it’s important to remember that even the four and eight point hits add up. Wildcarding now would allow you to jump on all the assets that you want long-term as early as possible, rather than risk bringing them in for a higher price later on in the piece as well.

Q: How many premium assets to pick on wildcard, two or three?

Premiums are likely to be the most frequent point scorers so I can see the fascination behind shoe-horning as many in on a wildcard. However, I like two premiums as it reduces reliance on the third premium to...

... perform. A third premium + a budget enabler could be a good strategy later on in the season once we have more team value but at this stage of the season, it is hard to figure out who the best budget enablers are hence spreading the funds and going in with a combination...

... of two mid-priced players is likely to yield better results. At the moment, I'm struggling to make a team with three heavy hitters that I like - I don't like the sacrifices being made elsewhere and it leads to an overdependence on your premium assets to perform week in...

... week out. Ideally pick two premiums – one midfielder and forward to give you the flexibility to rotate between Salah/KdB/Son/Bruno and Ronaldo/Lukaku/Kane depending on their fixtures. Timing will be all important, owning the right premiums at the right time will be critical.

Q: Diogo Jota or Ferran Torres and why?

This is a tricky question to answer having seen both these players in form this season. In my analysis, I use last season’s numbers as we have a bigger sample size available. Torres averaged 5.53 FPL pts per start with an expected goal...

... involvement of 0.5 per start. Jota averaged around 4.7 points per start, recording a healthy expected involvement of 0.7 per start. That tells me that both are really good options to own and that Jota relatively underperformed with regards to his underlying numbers...

... Nonetheless, Jota's selection is dependent on the extent of Firmino's injury. If Firmino looks like being out for around three weeks or more, then Jota is a great buy and one I’d prefer over Torres. There's a chance of immediate returns in the Leeds fixture as well - no...

... team has conceded more chances down the middle this season so if Jota starts, he could get returns straightaway. Ferran Torres seems critical to Pep's plans at the moment who was quoted as saying: "Gabriel (Jesus) comes more to associate and link up, to drop a little bit...

... and Ferran makes movements more to the goal. With our lack of goals lately, we need a guy who can make the movements there."

Those quotes suggest to me that Ferran is firmly first choice at the moment. Ferran’s numbers this season have been particularly impressive...

... as well – his xG of 1.62 against Arsenal was the highest a player has recorded in a single game this season. The issue with him is likely to be rotation more than anything, especially now that he seems at risk for one of his upcoming Premier League games having started...

... all three of Spain’s recent games and having clocked 90 minutes in their most recent friendly on Wednesday. There’s also the fact that Phil Foden and Kevin De Bruyne are now back in full team training and give additional options to Pep. They accumulated 12 appearances...

... combined as the false nine last season which is only going to make the Roulette harder to predict in the weeks to come, especially if Ferran has a poor game or two. I’d suggest picking one on wildcard and not both – as both could potentially be short term options and you...

... wouldn’t want to be pre-booking transfers in advance having just wildcarded.

Q: In this section, I talk about the Wolves attack and Adama Traoré in particular. Here I also talk about Adama Traoré v Ismaïla Sarr.

I’ve been really impressed with Wolves. They have been really unlucky not to have scored this season despite posting impressive statistics:

Wolves after three Gameweeks:

Shots: 57
Shots in the box: 36
Big chances: 4
xG: 5.06

Goals: 0

Jiménez v Traoré v Trincão

Shots in the box: 11 v 7 v 6
Big chance involvements: 0 v 2 v 1
xG: 0.46 v 1.30 v 1.14
Chances created: 10 v 9 v 4
xA: 0.7 v 0.7 v 0.4

It’s difficult to pick an obvious option from the Wolves ranks. Jiménez is playing in more of a creative role...

... (having registered no big chance involvements) with Trincão/Traoré carrying the goal threats. I prefer Traoré over Trincão because the latter might be at risk of getting subbed early with the return of Daniel Podence. Historically, it's been hard to build a case for Adama...

... Traoré. After all, it's hard to advocate for someone who has a career best of four Premier League goals. However, I really like the look of him in Lage's system and believe he has serious potential. He hasn't scored yet but here is how he ranks among midfielders this season:

Shots: 2nd
Shots in the box: 3rd
Big chances: 5th
xG: 5th
xGi: 3rd
Penalty area touches: 2nd
Chances created: 1st

This is despite having faced Leicester, Spurs and Man United in the opening three fixtures. The counter argument against him is that he's known...

... to be a poor finisher. However, I think that's a bit of a myth when you look at his numbers historically:

Adama Traoré’s xG v Adama Traoré’s actual goals

20/21: 2.05 v 2
19/20: 3.83 v 4
18/19: 1.33 v 1

What’s telling is that Traoré’s underlying numbers have actually...

... never been this good. In the previous season, he failed to register even a single big chance while this season, he has had a big chance involvement in each of the three games he has played. I think he could do well against Watford, who have conceded 44% of their chances...

... on their right flank as compared to their centre and left. I prefer Traoré to Sarr as I look at Watford as a defence first team. They are ranked in the bottom five teams for xG non-penalty this season. Sarr is likely to be on penalties and is their talisman, but I worry...

... about his big chance involvements. Sarr has had eight shots inside the box, which looks great on paper but is yet to register a big chance involvement this season.

Q: In this section, I talk about the Wolves and Brighton defence.

xG conceded from open play:

21/22

1) Man City
2) Chelsea
3) Wolves
4) Brighton

I really like the idea of having a Wolves defender on a wildcard due to the numbers illustrated above. Only Man City have conceded fewer shots and have a better xG non penalty conceded than Wolves this season. For them to post these underlying numbers is seriously impressive...

... given that they have had a tough start fixture wise to the season. Wolves now have an excellent fixture run from GW4-14 where they don’t face any of last season's top five. Semedo would be my pick from their defence, as he's playing practically as a right winger according...

... to the average position map in each of his last two fixtures. Brighton are fourth for xG conceded from open play this season and are conceding on average, approximately 12 shots per game. This is exactly what you want from a goalkeeper - a keeper who plays for a team which...

... concedes a large number of shots but shots of low quality. I see a lot of people selling Sánchez on a wildcard but I believe that could backfire. His short-term fixtures aren't the best but when you're on a wildcard you're likely to buy a keeper for the long term, as it...

... is highly unlikely that you would want to spend a transfer on a keeper at any point. Brighton have a proven defence, so Sánchez is ultimately a safe choice.

Q: Is it worth keeping Trent Alexander Arnold and Raphinha on wildcard?

Chances created

(After three Gameweeks)

Trent 15
Ritchie 11
Jiménez 10
Traoré/Grealish 9
Salah/Sarr/Fornals/Jesus 8

As you can see above, no player has created more chances than Alexander Arnold this season. He's a safe, set and forget, explosive option for the long term who could deliver in any fixture regardless of difficulty. I’d have him in my wildcard because I’d hate to restructure my...

... squad once I decide to go without just to bring him back in if he fires. There are still some doubts surrounding the availability of the Brazilians this week but I would have Raphinha in my wildcard draft regardless. In case he misses out, get a capable substitute - Ben...

... White with Norwich at home this week springs to mind. I firmly believe that Raphinha is the best midfielder in his price bracket. I say that because he has recorded 18 big chance involvements in 21 matches this calendar year which is incredible for someone of his price...

... Unfortunately, he has missed five out of his previous six big chances to score which is why he hasn't really hauled in recent times but the numbers suggest good scores, particularly with the favourable run of upcoming fixtures, are imminent.

Here is my Fantasy5 team for the GW! I’ve picked Mahrez with the assumption that Jesus misses out. Jota, Ronaldo and Lukaku all have haul potential so could beat their target of 9.5 while it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Antonio deliver again given how impressive his numbers are.

A big thank you to my friend @fplwaleed who has been contributing to my article and helping me with my research this season. Make sure to follow him to show your support!

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