8/19 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

Highlights:

1) PCR Pos% peak holds at 8/9
2) Rt at 0.99
3) Cases decline WoW, predicting weekend peak
4) Hospitalizations rate of growth down to 24.1%
5) Breakdown of 194 reported fatalities and comp to 2020 wave

1/n
8/19 Rate of Growth (RoG) Analysis:

** For Case & Hosps, RoG is calculated by comparing Week over Week (WoW) 7DMAs

* PCR Pos% flat. Up 0.2% WoW after 5 days below 0% and in decline. (More in 3/n)
* Case RoG down to 26.7%
* Hospitalization RoG down 2.0% to 24.1%

2/n
.
8/19 Positivity Rates & Rt:

* Cases arrive to state over time. Pattern is Tue, Wed, Thurs - pos% is higher, Sat, Sun, Mon, pos% gets revised down. Happens over and over
* 8/9 peak holds
* PCR pos% 18.50%, Up 0.2% WoW
* Covidestim Texas Rt at 0.99 (below magic # of 1.0)

3/n
.
8/19 Cases

* 10.8K Cases vs 12.0K Cases last Thurs, lowering 7DMA
* Case RoG declines to 26.7%
* See link below w/ prediction of a weekend Case peak for Texas. Yesterday's data on tests, positive tests, and cases is only firming up my confidence.

4/n
.
8/1o Hospitalizations

* Not great, not terrible
* +303 to 12705. Last Wed was +299
* % increase was lower this week than last
* RoG down 2.0% to 24.1%.
* In the vs 2020 charts, you can see bends towards peak for both general and ICU
* #weekend?!
* Predicting 8/30 peak

5/n
.
8/19 Fatalities Part 1 of 2:

* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 thru 7/28. 2020 thru 6/27, waves 13 months apart
* 2021 Actual - 22.2% less fatalities than 2020. 2021 Projections are -11.0%
* You can see Summer 2020 7DMA (green line) really taking off. This pattern will continue

6/n
.
8/19 Fatalities Part 2

* 194 Reported today
* +70 vs last Thur
* 84.4% from past 2 weeks. Quicker arrival than projected as usual
* 3 days out from T-3 weeks to July. Very little will be filed into July after that & we will be able to analyze and compare with 2020 then.

7/n
.
8/19 Primer on Fatalities:

For any of you that want to geek out, you can read 7/n-10n here, and then the 7/20/20 thread in 10/n on fatality arrivals and projections.

8/n
.

8/19 Conclusion

* Pos% & Rt still looking good even after usual work week increases. Arrivals over the weekend will form a nice curve/decline for pos% & 8/9/21 peak should hold.
* Cases - looking good for weekend peak
* Hospitalizations - calling an 8/30 peak

9/end
A couple of typos in this one. 8/19 Hospitalizations. Not 8/1o. And then "Last Thursday was +299." Not Wednesday. Geez

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More from @therealarod1984

14 Sep
9/14 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) New & likely final Case peak
2) Hospitalizations continue to drop
3) Pos% & testing hit Labor Day decline
4) Fatality breakdown on 296 reported

1/n
.
9/14 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/6 at 13.14%.
* Testing hits Labor Day wall, with big decline, and doubtful it comes back to same rate. 100K+ tests taken right out of the 7DMA on a single day.
* Covidestim Rt up from 0.69 to 0.74

2/n
.
9/14 Cases

* New Case Peak 9/14
* 17.3K Cases reported, vs 6.0K last Tues
* Case 7DMA WoW up 31%. Literally all over the place
* This should be the final peak. With Labor Day impacting testing numbers, and huge comps coming up, should not be seeing another new peak set

3/n
.
Read 9 tweets
13 Sep
9/13 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) Hospitalizations with a strong decline today
2) Cases- chance of new peak tomorrow, likely last possible new peak date
3) Pos% & testing have flattened thru 1st week of Sep
4) Fatality breakdown on 46 reported

1/n
.
9/13 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/5 at 13.41%. It has flattened out into first of Sep as of right now
* Testing new high of 1.075 Million tests per week on 9/3
* Rate of growth still all near 0 or decline
* Covidestim Rt declines to 0.69!!

2/n
.
9/13 Cases

* 8.1K Cases reported, vs 2.6K last Labor
* Case 7DMA WoW down 3%
* Peak is 9/5
* If 14.7K cases tomorrow, new peak will be set. Which is nuts since Hospitalizations peaked end of August. Its a factor of massive testing and case reporting antiquity
.
3/n
Read 9 tweets
12 Sep
9/12 Texas Case, Hosp & Fatalities: Mobile Edition

THREAD:

Summary:

* Cases down vs last Sun
* Hospitalizations with a decent drop
* Admits continue strong decline

1/n
.
9/12 Cases

Cases today - 3952
Last Sunday - 6844
Change vs last week - minus 2.9k
7DMA Rate of decline - 13.6%
Today 7DMA - 12999
Peak 7DMA - 15039 9/5

Two super weak comps coming up with about 15K in the 7DMA peak bank. After that its brutal post Labor Day catchup comps
.
2/n
9/12 Hospitalizations

* Hospitalizations - 13230 down from 13285
* Vs yesterday -55. Compared to last Sun daily decline of -25
* 7DMA Rate of decline - 2.8%
* ICU - 3758, -58 from yesterday

The dam should be about to break. Admits dropping more strongly than census
.
3/n
Read 6 tweets
11 Sep
9/11 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) Hospitalizations with a strong decline today
2) Cases decline Week over week
3) Saw some Labor Day catch up on tests & positives. A bunch of older tests from end of Aug
4) Fatality breakdown on 357 reported

1/n
.
9/11 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/3 at 13.51%. Thousands of tests between 8/29 and 9/2, a ton of positives. Should shake itself out by Monday
* Maybe 8 days back isnt far enough
* Rate of growth still all near 0 or decline
* Covidestim Rt holds at 0.72

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
9/11 Cases

* New record 7DMA of 151.3K tests per day on 9/2.
* That's 1.06 Million tests a week. #nuts
* 10.1K Cases reported, vs 13.9K last Sat
* Case 7DMA WoW down 7%
* Peak is 9/5
* Can't guarantee we don't have a new peak on Mon or Tues with low comps of Labor Day

3/n
. ImageImageImage
Read 9 tweets
10 Sep
9/10 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) Testing & Postive tests on the decline thru 9/2
2) Harris trying to keep this going. Cases flat WoW
3) Hosps down vs yest & Last week. Ready from some strong declines
4) Fatality breakdown on 400 reported

1/n
.
9/10 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/2 at 12.88% (Changed Calcs to be more accurate)
* Testing through 9/2, definitely a peak late August. Positives were in decline.
* Covidestim with another drop in Rt to 0.72
* Everything at ~0% growth or decline
2/n
.
9/10 Cases

* 19.5K Cases reported, vs 19.2K last Fri
* Case 7DMA WoW down 3%
* Peak is 9/5
* Harris dumped 7.5K. Trying their best to keep it going. 2 more tough comps next 2 days, not expecting a new peak at this point. Especially with positives declining through 9/2

3/n
.
Read 9 tweets
9 Sep
9/9 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) Testing definitely peaking last week
2) More Labor Day catch up on Cases
3) Hosps down vs yesterday & Last week. Should decline strongly this weekend
4) Fatality breakdown on 405 reported. Labor Day catch up

1/n
.
9/9 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/1 at 13.68%
* Testing through 9/1, a peak may have formed on 8/27. 7DMA actually decreased vs 8/25 (preliminary)
* Covidestim with another drop in Rt to .74
* Gotta have positive tests to have cases

2/n
.
9/9 Cases

* 23.7K Cases reported, Labor Day catch up vs 17.1K last Wed
* Case 7DMA WoW up 5%
* Peak is 9/5
* All the counties have had big case dumps the past two days. Comps of 19.2K, 14K, 6.8K coming up. Don't see a new peak, but I've been wrong before

3/n
.
Read 9 tweets

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