Thread by @awong37

"Hey Alex, why does #SK have more cases in persons fully vaxxed compared to persons only partially vaxxed? Doesn't full vax protect you more?"

Yes, it absolutely does. #VaccinesWork.

@AlexanderQuon explains it well. I'll simplify.

1/ #COVID19SK

cbc.ca/news/canada/sa…

Let's start with where #SK is at right now with vaccine doses. Using Alex's numbers from his article (from mid-week) & based on overall population of 1,173,000:

0 doses: 402,000 (34.3%)
1 dose: 93,000 (7.9%)
2 doses: 678,000 (57.8%)

2/ #COVID19SK

A MUCH LARGER number & proportion of people in #SK have 0 doses or 2 doses at this point since our vaccine rollout has matured.

While persons who are fully vaxxed have a much lower chance of acquiring infection w/ Delta, it's still 15-20%.

3/ #COVID19SK

Persons who are unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated have a much higher risk of acquiring Delta, obviously.

The key is not to look at absolute numbers but rather the relative numbers to determine the risk of infection in different categories.

4/ #COVID19SK

Now, if we combine all cases from Aug 16-20 in #SK reported by @SKGov we get 513 total cases. Of those:

0 doses: 418/513 (81.5%)
1 dose: 38/513 (7.4%)
2 doses: 57/513 (11.1%)

BUT, the key is to look at the rates relative to the number of persons in those groups.

5/ #COVID19SK

Calculating case rates over the 5 day period b/w Aug 16-20:

0 doses: 418/402,000 = 104 per 100,000
1 dose: 38/93,000 = 40.9 per 100,000
2 doses: 53/678,000 = 7.8 per 100,000

This is in-line with our expectations of vaccine protection. Namely...

6/ #COVID19SK

... that the case rate in persons who are unvaccinated is (104/7.8=) 13.3 times greater than being fully vaccinated, and the case rate in persons who are partially vaccinated is (40.9/7.8=) 5.2 times greater than being fully vaccinated.

i.e. #VaccinesWork.

7/ #COVID19SK

The more important statistics (IMO), which haven't as yet been provided daily by @SKGov, lie around stratification of cases by age, as well as understanding the vaccine status of persons hospitalized, requiring ICU care, or who die.

8/ #COVID19SK

While being fully vaccinated protects very well vs. infection with Delta, it's even better (~95%) against severe illness / hospitalization / death. That is what really matters right now from Public Health perspective - we don't want our hospitals overwhelmed.

9/ #COVID19SK

Bottom line: vaccines ARE working very well everywhere, and #SK is no different. When you see the daily numbers, remember to think about the numbers of persons in each category. Don't be alarmed. Everything IS as it should be.

Have a great Saturday, #SK.

10/ #COVID19SK