"Hey Alex, why does #SK have more cases in persons fully vaxxed compared to persons only partially vaxxed? Doesn't full vax protect you more?"

Yes, it absolutely does. #VaccinesWork.

@AlexanderQuon explains it well. I'll simplify.

1/ #COVID19SK

cbc.ca/news/canada/sa…
Let's start with where #SK is at right now with vaccine doses. Using Alex's numbers from his article (from mid-week) & based on overall population of 1,173,000:

0 doses: 402,000 (34.3%)
1 dose: 93,000 (7.9%)
2 doses: 678,000 (57.8%)

2/ #COVID19SK
A MUCH LARGER number & proportion of people in #SK have 0 doses or 2 doses at this point since our vaccine rollout has matured.

While persons who are fully vaxxed have a much lower chance of acquiring infection w/ Delta, it's still 15-20%.

3/ #COVID19SK
Persons who are unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated have a much higher risk of acquiring Delta, obviously.

The key is not to look at absolute numbers but rather the relative numbers to determine the risk of infection in different categories.

4/ #COVID19SK
Now, if we combine all cases from Aug 16-20 in #SK reported by @SKGov we get 513 total cases. Of those:

0 doses: 418/513 (81.5%)
1 dose: 38/513 (7.4%)
2 doses: 57/513 (11.1%)

BUT, the key is to look at the rates relative to the number of persons in those groups.

5/ #COVID19SK
Calculating case rates over the 5 day period b/w Aug 16-20:

0 doses: 418/402,000 = 104 per 100,000
1 dose: 38/93,000 = 40.9 per 100,000
2 doses: 53/678,000 = 7.8 per 100,000

This is in-line with our expectations of vaccine protection. Namely...

6/ #COVID19SK
... that the case rate in persons who are unvaccinated is (104/7.8=) 13.3 times greater than being fully vaccinated, and the case rate in persons who are partially vaccinated is (40.9/7.8=) 5.2 times greater than being fully vaccinated.

i.e. #VaccinesWork.

7/ #COVID19SK
The more important statistics (IMO), which haven't as yet been provided daily by @SKGov, lie around stratification of cases by age, as well as understanding the vaccine status of persons hospitalized, requiring ICU care, or who die.

8/ #COVID19SK
While being fully vaccinated protects very well vs. infection with Delta, it's even better (~95%) against severe illness / hospitalization / death. That is what really matters right now from Public Health perspective - we don't want our hospitals overwhelmed.

9/ #COVID19SK
Bottom line: vaccines ARE working very well everywhere, and #SK is no different. When you see the daily numbers, remember to think about the numbers of persons in each category. Don't be alarmed. Everything IS as it should be.

Have a great Saturday, #SK.

10/ #COVID19SK

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More from @awong37

4 Sep
Our pandemic response in #SK is completely broken.

❌ Lowest vaccine uptake in 🇨🇦
❌ Zero restrictions
❌ Overrun testing/contact tracing capacity
❌ Critical care capacity nearly maxed out

Our 4th wave has just begun. We're in BIG trouble.

🧵 👇

1/ #COVID19SK
To begin, #SK has the lowest vaccine uptake in Canada.

Despite similar political / geographical considerations as #MB, we're 8% behind in 1st doses, 12% behind in 2nd doses.

The only real difference b/w the 2 provinces? A functional vaccine certificate program.

2/ #COVID19SK
On July 11, we were the 1st place in NORTH AMERICA to remove all public health restrictions, including mandatory isolation for COVID+ persons.

#SK has no province-wide mask mandate. Schools are inconsistently masked.

cbc.ca/news/canada/sa…

3/ #COVID19SK
Read 14 tweets
27 Aug
Wow. Tonight's Doctor's Town Hall. Yep, it's bad, #SK.

This 🧵 will highlight 3 of my #Saskatoon colleagues being blunt & honest.

SUMMARY: no public health measures + unideal vaccine uptake + no staffing capacity in hospitals = #SK hospitals/ICUs in big 💩.

1/ #COVID19SK
We'll start w/ @WheatNOil below.

Delta is ++ contagious. We haven't vaccinated enough people. So hospitals ARE going to be overwhelmed, #YXE facilities already in trouble.

Don't get sick in #SK for next 2-3 months - there won't be space.

2/ #COVID19SK

Next, @hinz_tamara below.

Community transmission MUST be lowered via:

✅ Vaccine / testing for HCWs/teachers, access to large venues, etc.
✅ Indoor mask mandates
✅ Consider passports for non-essential events.
✅ Reduced gathering sizes.

3/ #COVID19SK

Read 6 tweets
21 Aug
Important, IMO. @LynnGiesbrecht shared school guidance document from local #SK MHOs dated Aug 13. Re: masks:

"Public Health at this time STRONGLY RECOMMENDS mask use for all students, staff and visitors."

Yes! UNIVERSAL masking in #SK schools is a no-brainer!

1/ #COVID19SK
Also in the document:

✅ Public health preventive measures demonstrably effective in last school year SHOULD be continued this school year.
✅ Everyone eligible, get vaccinated.
✅ Self-screening & iso/testing critical w/ contact tracing.

2/ #COVID19SK
More in the document:

✅ Private transport or walking to school ideal. Buses unideal, assigned seating important for contact tracing.
✅ Masks in school buses 100%.
✅ Hand hygiene critical.
✅ Enhancing cleaning of high-touch surfaces.

3/ #COVID19SK
Read 6 tweets
11 Aug
Minister Merriman: #SK kids minimally hospitalized, not having bad outcomes (ICU, death). Agree.

As a parent, my HUGE concern: given Delta & its contagiousness, discussion w/ #SK kids must move FAR BEYOND hospitalization & death.

🧵👇

1/9 #COVID19SK

panow.com/2021/08/11/cov…
Without mitigating measures in schools + day cares, large number of #SK kids will get COVID-19, especially those under 12 who can't get vaccinated.

Yes, virtually no #SK kids will die directly of COVID, but there are so many other potential impacts of concern.

2/9 #COVID19SK
The disruption of having a sick or disabled child on #SK families is significant. The impact of medical trauma on #SK kids will likely be significant and long-lasting & won't easily recognized or treated.

Even ONE child intubated/ventilated is one too many IMO.

3/9 #COVID19SK
Read 9 tweets
1 May
Good morning, all. Before going in this AM, wanted to share some high-level thoughts re: #SK situation with #COVID19. Will try to go into more detail as time allows, but these are some immediate thoughts. My opinion only, please remember. 🧵 begins... (1/n) #COVID19SK
#YQR curve and R0 seem for now to have peaked and are coming down. Hospitalizations & ICU admissions have stabilized. #YQR ICUs still running with ~180% capacity but more beds available now, critical elective surgeries proceeding, etc. (2/n) #COVID19SK
Still widespread community transmission throughout southern SK but has seemed to mostly peak at this point and some places like Moose Jaw are decreasing steadily too. (3/n) #COVID19SK
Read 13 tweets
17 Apr
My colleagues Lori & Jeff explain the SUPER BAD situation in #YQR ICUs. 2 COVID+ pts / room to maximize nursing & RTs. All ICU beds full in #YQR, city now on ICU/CCU bypass (including cardiac pts). Staff @ breaking point.😢 (1/4) #COVID19SK

cbc.ca/news/canada/sa…
I have tried to maintain equipoise but feel I need to say this again: we CANNOT vaccinate our way out of this without losing many lives & overwhelming our ICUs, forcing triage. We NEED definitive & immediate mandated measures to help bend our #SK curve quickly. (2/4) #COVID19SK
We are vaccinating 'easy' folks quickly in #SK. Soon, we will hit road blocks: persons who need improved access & hesitant persons who will need their concerns addressed / questions answered. Nobody can be left behind if we are going to achieve herd protection. (3/4) #COVID19SK
Read 4 tweets

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