It is mind-boggling how fast one’s worldview needs to adapt to changing reality during this pandemic.
Taking stock of some new realities:
🧵
Taking stock of some new realities:
🧵
1) Delta is tougher than we thought. It is now safe to say that, even at current vax, delta is marginal to escape optimal TTI + lockdown. Some outbreaks fizzle out. But when they don’t, short/sharp lockdowns have become long at best, uncontrolled outbreaks at worst...
...This is ultimately inevitable, and your risk analysis for vax should account for the fact that everywhere is either in outbreak now or only months/weeks from outbreak. Get whatever vax is available to you, as soon as possible, and encourage everyone you know to do the same.
2) NSW will leave lockdown at high caseloads (few 100/Mpop/day) and seems unlikely to return to low cases w/o significant infection-acq immunity. But, vax uptake is extraordinary; I am optimistic vax will be extremely high. Outcomes will be much better than most Western nations.
3) VIC is at max restrictions with rising cases. It is well past the knife edge. Even if VIC miraculously brings its outbreak under control in the next two weeks it would take a further 6+ weeks to bring cases to near zero...
...I think the plausible range of scenarios for VIC are from a SG-style slow easing of restrictions at high vax %, keeping cases low, to a loss of control and eventual NSW-style scenario.
4) Likely VIC under major restrictions through November at least. VIC gov’t will face enormous pressure to relax some restrictions once it is clear lockdown has failed. I think there is room to relax some onerous but ineffective measures, and I won’t be surprised if it happens...
...Those who advocated a maximum approach in NSW even after containment failed may need to do a rethink about what it is possible to ask people to do.
5) ACT and NZ appear to be on the knife edge. Maybe they’ll get lucky. ACT has very high vax working in their favour.
6) QLD/NT/SA/TAS/WA should hold on, but know that zero covid lives on borrowed time, persisting by luck, not choice or strategy. It will fail eventually. Sounds pessimistic, but the sooner everyone appreciates this reality, the sooner everyone will get vaxxed.
7) If there is one thing that has held constant:
It is absolutely, 100%, a race.
Get whatever vax is available to you, as soon as you can. Tell everyone you know to do the same.
end
It is absolutely, 100%, a race.
Get whatever vax is available to you, as soon as you can. Tell everyone you know to do the same.
end
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