I am re-upping this thread from the weekend. Tomorrow is an important day for @USAmbUN, a day for courage, to seek moderation of an indefensible US Foreign Policy or a day of shame, one which will not be remembered fondly in history.
In February 2003 Former GWB Admin U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell delivered a speech which led to the Iraq War, and countless horrors thereafter.

@USAmbUN Linda Thomas Greenfield is not facing quite such a significant moment. Yet.
Greenfield has an opportunity to live up to her own words, "African Lives Matter", delivered in the last UNSC meeting to address Ethiopia and Tigray. She will be very closely watched diplomatically, across Africa, in the East and more generally in the global south.
Her recent statements in the sessions on UN Peacekeeping and Counter Terrorism last week were lacklustre, scripted, absent any real effort. Both issues directly relate to the current crisis in Ethiopia where a terrorist rebellion/insurgency is underway by the former TPLF Govt.
This former Govt. was a close ally of the U.S. and notwithstanding its mounting atrocities and war crimes the U.S. is continuing to stand by it, and to utilise all its diplomatic powers to protect it from the international condemnation that it deserves.
And a lot is at stake. Tomorrow's UNSC meeting will be the last opportunity to reset the diplomacy around a foreign policy disaster of epic proportions, a destabilised and isolated Ethiopia, would be akin to a destabilised Iran. This is an ancient nation of 115 million.
But this is not the likely outcome at this point, far more likely the outcome will be a final military showdown, between a new democracy that is fighting for its freedom against regressive corrupt political chimera that wants to return to power, the TPLF.
Ethiopia is preparing for this showdown with the support of its two material allies Eritrea (the Cuba of Africa) and Turkey, a member of Nato, a fellow ancient civilisation with massive regional influence.
The UN, US and EU are right to try to prevent this coming to a military solution. But their failure over the past 10 months to put any pressure on the TPLF to understand this is the central problem here.

At this point Ethiopia has been left with no choice.
A negotiated settlement might now be possible, given the TPLF's relative weakness and significant defeats, but that would require more than just words from the great and the good, among them @USAmbUN Linda Thomas Greenfield.
The decision by US Secretary of State @SecBlinken to sanction Ethiopia's closest and most useful ally Eritrea in the lead up to this UNSC meeting, is a clear attempt to prejudge and undermine the possibility of this meeting achieving any meaningful outcome.
@SecBlinken U.S. policy on the Ethiopian issue is wholly incoherent.

They support democratic reforms but yet they attack a newly minted democracy.

The are appalled by atrocities, but yet they continue to support a terrorist organisation which has in recent weeks committed a great many.
They support UN peacekeeping efforts but yet their actions in Tigray & on the #GERD are resulted in withdrawal of thousands of Ethiopian peacekeepers in Sudan and Darfur.

They condemn terror against themselves, but through their actions they seek to compel Ethiopia to accept it.
While media do not appear to be watching all this, I can assure @USAmbUN @SecBlinken and @JoeBiden that millions of Ethiopian Americans are, and that Africa, Turkey, Israel, Middle East, India, Russia, China and all of the Global South, all who are preparing to attend #Cop26 are.
American exceptionalism is a disaster. It was a disastrous idea and it has proven disastrous in its implementation. It looks and feels like fascism, like contempt for the rule of law.
And it is not what @USAmbUN @SecBlinken and @JoeBiden campaigned on and were elected on.
For you, Linda Thomas Greenfield @USAmbUN former @AsstSecStateAF, you know all of what I have said here more than anyone. And you are probably the only person whose actions at this late stage can prevent a diplomatic calamity for your great, but all too often, misguided nation.
@USAmbUN @AsstSecStateAF And we will be watching you tomorrow.
/ENDS

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More from @althecat

16 Sep
The Ethiopian-Tigray Crisis-War has reached what looks like a turning point. The rumours, which are everywhere, that @POTUS @JoeBiden is about to sanction Ethiopia and Eritrea are clearly being telegraphed for a reason.
@POTUS @JoeBiden E.G. this is one of the most recent ones. And this one is weirdly specific. "18 Hours". sounds like there will be a press conference or something.
Apparently the announcement of the sanctions has been approved. On the day that @KarenBassTweets was due to depart for Ethiopia on CODEL (Congressional Delegation) visit. However this seems to have been postponed, now till 27th-29th September. Which is odd.
Read 24 tweets
16 Sep
Translation into English of Somalia President Farmaajo’s statement suspending Somalia PM Roble @MohamedHRoble (aka Rooble)’s powers. [ Translation by @Mohamud_M_A ] Image
And some speculation on possible immediate reasons for Roble’s removal by President Farmaajo @M_Farmaajo.
Read 4 tweets
15 Sep
Ministry of Peace Statement released today on Facebook. Thread...

"Humanitarian assistance is a service that should be provided to any victim in need without any preconditions." Minister of Peace HE Muferihat Kamil.
"An estimated 4.5 million people have been affected due to the attacks in Amhara and Afar regions by the terrorist group TPLF following the Ethiopian government's decision for a unilateral ceasefire.
"More than 550 thousand people have recently been displaced from their homes, in addition to those already in the camps as a result of TPLF's desire to expand its attacks on innocent civilians.
Read 19 tweets
15 Sep
Great so we now know who is responsible for this report. .

@AvvZaki @OmarSMahmood @mutiga, why is the abduction of @AbdiwahabSheik7 missing from the report?

It's clear this abduction is part of the story after he was abducted off the streets of Nairobi on Sept. 9th.
And why are PM Roble's numerous - on their face overtly destructive - actions in relation to the coming election [including his visit to Kenya] brushed over in a narrative which focuses almost exclusively on a unproven allegation about the death of Ikran Tahlil?
Furthermore @CrisisGroup @alanboswell

& authors of this report: @AvvZaki, @OmarSMahmood,
@mutiga

What is the role of the former UN observer @Dibjir and his shadowy Sahan Research intelligence group - staffed by former @CrisisGroup personnel - in all of this?
Read 36 tweets
15 Sep
There are at least 2 significant omissions from this @CrisisGroup .
1. Roble's unsanctioned visit to Kenya, directly against the explicit instructions of Farmaajo to discuss very sensitive matters of FP including the maritime boundary dispute.
2. The abduction of @AbdiwahabSheik7
@CrisisGroup @AbdiwahabSheik7 The report is almost certainly written by or strongly influenced by @Dibjir and @SahanResearch - which is not an independent actor in all this. It has an agenda.

The bad blood between Matt Bryden (@Dibjir) and Farmaajo is extremely well known.
The @CrisisGroup report makes two recommendations. The first that Farmaajo should not dismiss Roble.
Read 15 tweets
14 Sep
This firefight in Somalia took place on the day before Analyst/Political Commentator @AbdiwahabSheik7's abduction.

Somalia’s Politicians Play with Fire – Again crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af… via @CrisisGroup
I can't help but notice that this article is un-bylined and was very quickly tweeted by @Dibjir, the boss of @SahanResearch whose twitter account basically consists of a running commentary of this affair, taking a firmly pro Roble line. Image
I very much hope that neither @Dibjir nor his fellow Horn of Africa misinformation peddler @rashidabdi, both ex-@CrisisGroup had anything to do with it's creation, but I suspect that this is an unrealistic hope.
Read 10 tweets

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