Thread by @FPLLens

#FPLMatchups

#GW3 – Wolves vs Manchester United + 3 Captains

+ Introducing: 🎇The Alchemist of the Week🎇

Welcome back to my weekly thread examining technical, tactical, and statistical matchups to help inform your FPL decisions.

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Data and heatmaps taken from everywhere with gratitude. 🙏

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Like last week, please consider these general impressions more than definitive patterns. As players and managers settle into their teams, we will learn much more about who they are this season. For now, we observe the evolution.

WOL v MUN
I decided to go heavy on the stats with this matchup but I will get into some of the tactics when I examine Bruno Fernandes as a captaincy option. The analysis will focus on each team’s attack.

MUN ATTACK
MUN has the 4th most SoT so far this season (11), while WOL have conceded the 3rd most SoT, also 11. According to @fbref, Sa concedes a 0.2 xGoT per SoT. These stats bode well for MUN who have the 6th highest shot accuracy (35.5%) to boot.

The next stats are a bit of a stretch but make some sense as far as from where MUN are trying to create chances. MUN have created the most chances from the center of the field. WOL conceded more chances from the center of the field (7) than the left and right combined (6).

There is, however, not much in these numbers because of how few chances WOL have conceded overall (13).
You can see by the touches that there is an emphasis on playing high up the field. This is seen in the touch heatmap below.

The thing to notice is how much higher up the field WOL’s touches are than a team like BHA. WOL play a high intensity brand that can suffocate United in a similar way SOU was able to do.

Lastly, I just want to add that José Sá has the 2nd most parries to opposition (3),

and Wolves’ xGoT of 2.8 is 0.87 higher than their xG of 1.93 in just 2 matches. It’s another week where United could either be stifled by, or destroy, the competition.

WOL ATTACK
It’s hard to think about WOL attack without turning our mind to the futbol blue balls that Adama Traore has given WOL fans. Playing on the left-hand side forces Adama to do more to get the shot off. He has always been best when playing instinctually

and blasting it from the right side when he sees an opening. It may surprise many to know that WOL have created the most chances in the division from the right side of the field (17). That’s more than Salah’s side at Liverpool.

WOL attack down the right by getting the wingback (Hoever, Semedo) forward, linking with Trincão, & overlapping. The images show how this happens with the starter Semedo. Trincão checks to the ball and helps Semedo progress it up the field before invariably sending in a bad cross

Looking at the chances created heatmap confirms the observation. Semedo’s chances created are beyond Trincao’s despite playing as a defender and technically behind the midfielder. Adama is used more on the counter attacks than the buildup play.

WOL have the joint most chances from counter attacks (3). It seems Lage doesn’t exactly have the pieces right to make this work unless Adama can learn to finish from the left.

Wolves will have to be more efficient at all levels if they want a positive result from this one. United will need to need with the pressure while maintaining possession in order to secure the 3 points they would expect.

CAPTAINCY: Bruno – Antonio - Son
Antonio steals the show in the statistical comparison. With goals, assists, and BPS, he has a trifecta of ways to points.

Let’s try a different lens for each of these captaincy options.

BRUNO – Tactical
I wrote about Pogba’s effect on Bruno when they play together. Pogba’s role changed from a playmaking 6 to a true 8 but this crowded the field, stifling Bruno. The heatmap from last season shows us Bruno without Pogba to begin the season, then Bruno with Pogba.

This season has started much differently. Pogba has taken the left side while Bruno has taken the right. The passing maps show how Pogba plays intermediate to long passes from the left side to players in space, while Bruno plays shorter passes on the right side.

It'll be interesting to see what Sancho does to this dynamic. As of now, it has Bruno playing a little closer to the box.

We this this advanced position in Bruno’s passes received heatmap, but his passes in the final third map does not hint at a change in positioning.

Greenwood is dragging defenders & opening space for Bruno to be closer to the box. This seems like a prime area for Sancho to operate in so we must keep an eye on Bruno’s positioning moving forward. If Greenwood can drag the back line deep, Bruno could have some fun in this one.

ANTONIO – Eye test
I wanted to pair Antonio’s stats dominance with a brief scouting report showing how his understanding with Berahma elevates him as an FPL asset.
This play comes from a counterattack against Newcastle. Antonio drops to collect the ball quite deep in his half.

This signals to Benrahma that there is space for him high up the field.

Benrahma makes the run forward but is careful to stay in the inside left channel rather than get central. This is a mature piece of running as it keeps the space open for a healthy Antonio.

The pass to Antonio is a little behind him and Antonio’s first touch is a little wide but he makes up for it with the finish.

I want to conclude the eye test here but underscoring the resulting stats of 1st for xG (2.45), and 1st for xGoT (2.95).

Palace may not be the pushover we think with only 1 big chance conceded 17 small chances conceded and a middling xGC of 2.11 after 2 matches, but Antonio is a monster in monster form.

SON – Matchup
Son is facing a promoted defense; what’s not to like?

The team comparison below raises an eyebrow. Watford’s defensive stats are better than Spurs except of course in goals conceded.

To add, the attacking stats are quite comparable so far this season. We have seen this before from this Spurs team, and indeed other counterattacking

teams, including Nuno’s Wolves. Watford’s underperformance of their xG is related to Bachmann’s -2.0 xG Prevented in 2 games. This is where I see life for Son. Son, as a historically clinical finisher, is going to love the xG gifts from Bachmann.

Spurs’ chances created do not really line up with Watford’s chances conceded heatmap however.

Son has been moved to the right & forward, but Kane has only played a handful of minutes. He should start against Watford and I will be very curious to see how Nuno uses Son.

He could mirror Moura’s pressing & link play behind Kane or Son could play off Kan. These obs. will all need revising after this GW.
Lastly, one thing that I do not expect to change is the style of play. Both these teams have the most chances from counterattacks this season (3).

The Alchemist of the Week
Having run out of quotes from The Little Prince, I have turned to another one of my favorite books, The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho. He will inspire the heart picks this season.

Adam Armstrong is this week’s Alchemist

He has the 5th highest xGoT (1.32) with only 12th highest xG (0.88) while NEW has the highest xGoTC (5.4). 2nd highest is LEE way down at 4.3.

“It’s the possibility of having a dream come true that makes life interesting.”
― Paulo Coelho

Thank you once again for spending you precious moments with my musings. Plz also look for this at allaboutfpl.com (@allaboutfpl)

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May you party with some greenz this weekend amigxs.