Thread by @MoriartyLab

Here's an illustration of why speed of #COVID19Vaccination in Canada matters.

I'm trying to identify highest priority populations for discussion-based vaccine support work of @COVID_19_Canada.

One valid priority is people are most likely to die of COVID-19.

@COVID_19_Canada We're scaling up due to some much-needed funding we learned of recently, but likely won't hit our full capacity for another two months, or Nov. 1.

As we scale up we need to make sure we have in place what is needed to reach the highest priority populations by that date.

@COVID_19_Canada This is a bit tricky, because vaccination rates in some age groups may be high enough by that date that our help may not have impact.

The 12-17 age group is a great example of this in many provinces. Rates of full vaccination and speed of uptake are outpacing the 18-29s

@COVID_19_Canada Right now I'm estimating how many people in each age group in each province will not be fully vaccinated by November 1, then using OECD infection fatality rates to estimate how many deaths would be expected if all of these unvaccinated people were infected with SARS-CoV-2.

@COVID_19_Canada Before I started I thought I had a sense of what this might be like, but the differences in the effects of speed of vaccination on deaths in Canadian regions was quite shocking.

@COVID_19_Canada Here's what the numbers look like.

Remember, exposure of the entire unvaccinated population will take time, and won't all happen on Nov 1, unless things go horrifyingly wrong--and even then it won't happen.

But I want you to see the enormous regional risk differences emerging.

All data are calculated from the @GovCanHealth age-stratified vaccination dataset from Aug 21, with weekly vaccination rates calculated by comparing Aug 14 and Aug 21.

health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/vacci…

@GovCanHealth Estimated deaths in each Canadian region, based on current vaccination rates:

NL 0
PEI 0
NS 147
NB 707 (yes)
QC 19 (again, yes)
ON 10,864
MB 803
SK 1,246
AB 4,442
BC 1,983

Speed matters. A lot. Get vaccinated, and support every single person you can to get vaccinated.

@GovCanHealth Based on these estimates, which regions do you think should be prioritized for vaccination outreach and support?

I'm actually really interested in hearing others' thoughts.

Also, what we do is better suited to slow, one person or small group at a time interactions.

@GovCanHealth We can't reach everyone who isn't vaccinated yet, not just because that's impossible in a short time, but also because some people won't need this kind of support, and will respond to other nudges and incentives.