Thread by @MoriartyLab

#Ontario residents

DYK

In several ON regions #COVID19Vaccination of people 50+ years is at least 2X slower than the Canadian average, and slower than Alberta.

Slow vaccination of people older than 50 in these regions could result in up to 7,800 preventable #COVID19 deaths.

The regions of greatest concern are:

Algoma (270 preventable deaths)
Grey Bruce (490)
Lambton (290)
Northwestern PHU (130)
Sudbury (400)
Timiskaming (60)
Toronto (6,100)

Some of these regions are small. These are a LOT of deaths for them.

Pls help everyone 50+ get vaccinated.

Here is how many vaccine-preventable #COVID19 deaths would be expected in Ontario regions over the coming 1-2 years if vaccination of people 50 and older doesn't speed up a LOT.

Estimates are based on the % of people 50 and older that were fully vaccinated Aug 21.

ONTARIO: 19,300

Algoma: 270
Brant: 90
Chatham-Kent: 170
Hamilton: 930
Durham: 610
Eastern Ontario: 360
Grey-Bruce: 490
Haldimand: 220
Haliburton: 420
Halton: 480
Hastings-Prince Edward: 300
Huron-Perth: 90
Kingston-Frontenac-Lennox-Addington: 260
Lambton: 290

Leeds-Grenville-Lanark: 170
Middlesex-London: 930
Niagara: 860
North Bay: 200
Northwestern Health Unit: 130
Ottawa: 840
Peel: 2,100
Peterborough: 200
Porcupine Health Unit: 140
Sudbury: 400
Waterloo: 600
Renfrew: 160
Simcoe-Muskoka: 760
Southwestern Health Unit: 300

Thunder Bay: 290
Timiskaming: 60
Toronto: 6,100
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 180
Windsor-Essex: 670
York: 1,600

This is why vaccination matters, Ontarians.

Do everything you can to help people 50 and older get vaccinated ASAP.

Act as if you could be saving their lives.

Please

FYI @ScienceUpFirst @COVID_19_Canada @acaldz @emeraldclover5 @sillenojunior

Another way to look at this:

Because of ON's population age structure, the average infection fatality rate for people 50 and older is 2.41%.

For every 42 Ontarians 50+ you help get fully vaccinated, 1 life is saved.

Many of us could save lives this way. Our actions matter.

Also....it's not as if vaccination in younger age groups doesn't matter.

Below is the estimated number of deaths we'd expect to see in Ontario in the following age groups, based on % fully vaccinated on Aug 21. Of course, that's changing with every day, but not fast enough.

12-17 years: 10 expected deaths of unvaccinated people
18-29: 86
30-39: 223
40-49: 540
50-59: 1,571
60-69: 2,936
70+: 14,845

Below are the expected number of deaths for all of Canada based on numbers of people who weren't yet fully vaccinated on Aug 21.

Every day we vaccinate this gets better, and the more we vaccinate the better it gets.

We're in a race against the virus, not a slow, steady stroll.

Canada, expected deaths by age group for people not yet fully vaccinated as of Aug 21:

12-17: 28
18-29: 219
30-39: 613
40-49: 1,461
50-59: 4,361
60-69: 7,709
70+: 28,441

This is why it's a race. The faster we get everyone vaccinated, the fewer of these deaths will happen.