Thread by @DrSturg

Time for a little fun with math. I often see 99 percent survival rate as a snappy comeback for people talking about vaccines and mask mandates. And I think we can all agree that it's important to consider risks and benefits when deciding things. What does 99 percent mean?

2/ If it's a death rate, that means for every 100 people infected, 99 lives and 1 dies. To be fair, 99 is a much bigger number than 100. Here is one *

Here are 99

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3/ Let's think about it another way. I live in a town with a college of about 29,000 students. If they all get infected, 290 die. The town has a population of about 70,000. If we all get infected, 700 die. My kid's school has about 1,500 students. If they all get it, 15 die.

4/ I hear you. Not everyone will get it. Younger people like school kids and college students seem to have lower risk of death. It's smart to think that way. Statistics are summaries, and that means they hide details. Sometimes those details matter a lot.

5/ But you can be smarter still. What about those 99? Does being infected mean nothing? What about time off work or school? What about large hospital bills? What about the strain on medical workers to keep some of those 99 alive?

6/ What about those who can't get medical care because the hospital staff are shifted to COVID care? What about if those students do well, but infect people who won't?

7/ Risk vs. benefit does matter. But it matters that you are honest about the risks. People are not asterices and you need to count all the costs. #DetectingDeception