John Kerry met via video with Han Zheng, China's 7th-ranked leader on the Politburo Standing Committee

That this meeting occurred is a mild positive sign for China-US climate cooperation on COP26

Han is far more senior than Kerry's other interlocutors, FM Wang Yi & Xie Zhenhua
BUT there's still a lot of tension and risk

Han was more restrained than Wang Yi on climate cooperation requiring better US-China relations

Yet he said cooperation "must be premised on trust" & the US should "create a favorable atmosphere"

So Beijing is putting pressure on
Still, Beijing will act in its interests, and it is interested in fighting climate change and bolstering its geopolitical position through climate leadership

So China is unlikely to blow up COP26 over US-China ties, unless the US tries to isolate China

cpc.people.com.cn/n1/2021/0902/c…
Though it's notable that Han did not mention any preconditions about bilateral relations when he met with Kerry via video in April

That was earlier in Biden's admin, when Beijing still hoped it could get more favorable relations from a new president

xinhuanet.com/politics/leade…

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More from @neilthomas123

8 Sep
Front page People's Daily commentary declares three "things that have not changed"

1. Status & role of private economy

2. Policy of encouraging, supporting & guiding private economy

3. Policy of favorable environment & more opportunities for development of private economy
The three "things that have not changed" are specifically highlighted on the Communist Party homepage (hosted by the People's Daily)

Not unheard of for People's Daily pieces to get top billing here but it's usually things that Xi Jinping is doing or events he is attending
Commentary is trying to reassure business after recent anti-monopoly & unfair competition crackdowns

The message is debatable but it's a tacit acknowledgement policies were opaque & unpredictable

Wonder if we'll now see a more coordinated approach inc w/"common prosperity"
Read 8 tweets
6 Sep
Unusual personnel changes afoot in China's People's Liberation Army

Xi Jinping today held a ceremony for 5 PLA rising stars promoted to top General rank & given new roles

New commanders for Xinjiang/Tibet/India, Beijing, Navy, Air Force, Defense Uni

cpc.people.com.cn/n1/2021/0906/c…
What's unusual is appointment of Wang Haijiang 汪海江 as Western Theater commander (Xinjiang, Tibet, India)

Wang replaces Xu Qiling 徐起零 who was only promoted in July

Xu's precursor Zhang Xudong 张旭东 replaced Zhao Zongqi 赵宗岐 in December

That's 4 commanders in 10 months!
The PLA is opaque and I'm not a military specialist, but it seems Xi is dissatisfied with the PLA in Western China?

Zhao Zongqi retired, but both Xu Qiling and and Zhang Xudong are only 59

Neither appears to have been given a new role since being relieved of the Western command
Read 10 tweets
29 Apr
What did Joe Biden say about China in his Joint Address to Congress?

"We’re in a competition with China and other countries to win the 21st Century."

Strategic competition with China further confirmed as a key theme in political arguments for an ambitious domestic agenda. (1/9)
Followed by special focus on competition in technology, innovation & R&D investment, where:

"China and other countries are closing in fast"

Then nod to importance of cooperation on climate change:

"I kept my commitment to convene a climate summit..." [inc w/] China.." (2/9)
Biden foregrounds China after introducing his goal to "advance a foreign policy that benefits the middle class":

"That means making sure every nation plays by the same rules in the global economy, including China."

Could be a big theme of his ongoing China policy review (3/9)
Read 11 tweets
16 Feb
THREAD: Who are the rising stars of Chinese elite politics in the central Party-State bureaucracy?

For @MacroPoloChina I analyzed last year's ministerial-level promotions to posts in Beijing

TLDR: Ties to Xi Jinping—or a Xi ally—are very helpful! (1/14)

macropolo.org/ccp-rising-sta…
Seven politicians were promoted to ministerial-level positions in central Party agencies last year

All are likely to feature on the next Central Committee selected at the 2022 Party Congress

Some could make the CCP's elite 25-person Politburo (2/14)

macropolo.org/ccp-rising-sta…
Likeliest for the Politburo is Meng Xiangfeng, new Executive Deputy Director of the CCP General Office

He would replace Xi ally Ding Xuexiang as CCP chief-of-staff if Ding is promoted further in 2022

Meng worked under Xi allies Cai Qi in Hangzhou and Chen Xi in Liaoning (3/14)
Read 14 tweets
28 Jan
"Anonymous" makes some good points but the analysis of Chinese elite politics is questionable

They claim: "The political reality is that the CCP is significantly divided on Xi’s leadership and his vast ambitions."

Internal opposition to Xi is real but this seems overstated (1/)
Indeed, Xi himself seems to think the internal threat level is not rising but falling

Declining disciplinary investigations of CCP elites suggests that Xi believes his position is increasingly secure

Xi could be blind to threats, but seems unlikely (2/)

macropolo.org/analysis/china…
Xi's hardline politics & power centralization have alienated CCP "liberals" and serious people have made brave dissents (Ren Zhiqiang, Xu Zhangrun, Cai Xia)

BUT there is little evidence of “backlash” in the 370-member Central Committee “selectorate” (3/) macropolo.org/digital-projec…
Read 8 tweets
26 Jan
Thread: Who are the rising stars of Chinese elite politics?

For @MacroPoloChina I analyzed 2020's new provincial Party Secretaries and Governors w.r.t. age, location, and ties to Xi Jinping

Many are Politburo contenders at the 2022 Party Congress (1/)

macropolo.org/chinese-politi… Image
One-third of Chinese provinces got a new Party Secretary in 2020

These officials have primary responsibility for local economies that can dwarf those of countries

Many are in the running for promotion to the elite 25-member Politburo in 2022 (2/)

macropolo.org/chinese-politi… Image
On this list, Ying Yong has the best chance of a Politburo seat in 2022

He was provincial chief justice and deputy discipline chief when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary

Xi tapped Ying to replace Jiang Chaoliang as Hubei PS post-COVID outbreak (3/)

macropolo.org/chinese-politi… Image
Read 11 tweets

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