2/x The paper identifies seven cultural traits that correlate with equity market outperformance.
3/x So far, this just supports what a lot of investors believe about culture being a competitive advantage.
4/x But digging into the details reveals interesting anomalies. For instance, scoring high on innovation is negatively correlated with having a customer focus.
5/x And a corporate culture that instills a sense of stability is actually value destroying at "creative firms" even while the same trait is very value creative at "procedural firms".
6/x Also fascinating is how companies whose scores vary significantly from their industry peers outperformed strongly. So a unique culture, regardless of the way in which it is unique, appears to be a strong positive signal.
7/x The paper smartly notes that the causality may run in the other direction, with only very high performing firms given "permission" to operate such an atypical culture. But our own work has shown us how valuable "uniqueness" can be as well. intrinsicinvesting.com/2018/02/16/idi…
8/x "Measuring" culture may well be one of the great underexploited pools of alpha in equity markets today. The value of positive cultures is well understood, but tools like natural language processing offer an opportunity to dig much deeper into the complex dynamics.
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This dynamic of top talent viewing flexible hybrid work environments as a *requirement* is going to really test some top performing, but old school investment firms. wsj.com/articles/if-yo…
If an analyst is looking for a job, an investment firm that views remote work as a “perk,” requires permission, or has an arbitrary limit, will likely be seen as a firm that is out of touch, doesn’t trust their staff, or is at minimum a slow to adapt organization. Major red flag.
Our guess is there will be a couple year window where top talent incrementally shifts from older established firms to younger, more digitally native, adaptable investment organizations. Then the older firms will capitulate.
1/x In April of 2020 a pair of articles were published within 24 hours of each other by @pmarca and @morganhousel, which together laid out the roadmap for the economic path we are now following. The ship has already set sail, the question is just what the journey will be like.
2/x in @pmarca's piece, he laid out how the US has stopped "building" and that the time had arrived where the only path forward was to Build. a16z.com/2020/04/18/its…
3/x But how will we pay for it? This was the subject that @morganhousel tackled as he laid out the post WWII history of debt levels consistently falling even as the debt was never repaid. collaborativefund.com/blog/who-pays-…
1/x One of the great things about blogging is you assemble a record of real time thoughts during periods of stress. This allows for reviews of what went as expected and what didn't. Our 2020 posts focused mostly on how we were assessing unprecedented levels of change. Links below
2/x Prior to COVID, we wrote about how forecasts are a necessary part of investing. Your only choice is whether to make explicit forecasts or implicit ones. intrinsicinvesting.com/2020/01/10/pic…
3/x We discussed the key difference between a company's products being "relevant" vs "recognizable" and discussed how highly recognizable products may be losing relevance, which lays a trap for investors. intrinsicinvesting.com/2020/02/21/rel…
1/x In 2019, we covered a lot of ground in our posts. We tackled position sizing, introduced a diagram illustrating our investment philosophy, reported on our trip to China, and more. You can explore posts from earlier years in the retweeted threads below.
2/x We started the year talking about "hyperbolic discounting", a "$5 phrase" that explains a lot about investor behavior. intrinsicinvesting.com/2019/01/02/tak…
3/x We sent Arif on a research trip to Italy to have the Ferrari experience first hand. What he came back with was the realization that their business model is best understood as a global "club". intrinsicinvesting.com/2019/01/10/joi…
1/x We recently got a request from new reader @NMPCap to tweet some of our top blog posts from the past. Honestly, nobody was reading our blog back in 2016! So here's some of our early posts you may have missed.
The big inflection in video game end markets is first generation of people who grew up as gamers are now parents. So the whole family games and it is no longer seen as a “vice” for young kids.
If you were born in 1980 you were 5 when Super Mario came out. But 1990 was peak birth year for Millennial Generation. So we have a decade of rising number of gamer-parents ahead of us.