1/x We recently got a request from new reader @NMPCap to tweet some of our top blog posts from the past. Honestly, nobody was reading our blog back in 2016! So here's some of our early posts you may have missed.
4/x Our posts featured lots of talk about return on invested capital, which triggered lots of questions about this concept and how exactly we define it (we don't use GAAP derived ROIC). intrinsicinvesting.com/2016/04/12/ret…
5/x We're value investors at heart in that we only buy stocks based on them trading at a discount to what we believe the present value of long term cash flows will be. But forecasting is hard. Luckily, forecasting ROIC is easier than forecasting growth. intrinsicinvesting.com/2016/09/21/the…
6/x We owned Apple from 2009 to 2018. In this post we looked at the core value creation mechanism that the company is focused on. intrinsicinvesting.com/2016/09/20/how…
7/x The value a company creates for customers (and all stakeholders) defines the total potential value a company can capture via profits. But sometimes the customer value a company creates is not what you might expect. We explored this dynamic at $FRC intrinsicinvesting.com/2016/10/04/fir…
End/ Thanks so much to all of you who read our blog and follow us here!
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The big inflection in video game end markets is first generation of people who grew up as gamers are now parents. So the whole family games and it is no longer seen as a “vice” for young kids.
If you were born in 1980 you were 5 when Super Mario came out. But 1990 was peak birth year for Millennial Generation. So we have a decade of rising number of gamer-parents ahead of us.
1.1/x On value creation & dynamic capital allocation, @thirdpoint’s Daniel Loeb sent an insightful letter to $DIS prodding management to double down on its Disney+ direct to consumer (DTC) streaming business bit.ly/35LbUWe
2.2/x He argues $DIS should permanently stop dividends & reinvest cash into accelerated content creation & make Disney+ 1st landing site for all $DIS content instead of 2nd after box office, potentially forgoing $B’s in lost box office revenue (moot for now)
3.3/x Making Disney+ first drop for new franchise blockbuster content would fuel subscriber growth to scale into $NFLX league of 100MM’s of subscribers quickly, while bringing accelerated content velocity would keep them engaged, lowering churn
There are two CEO archetypes: Visionaries and Optimizers. Both types can create substantial value for shareholders, but require different evaluation tools.
Here’s how we think about it: 1/15
A Visionary is best described as a rule breaker. They are ideally suited for situations in which there is no blueprint for success. They are creating opportunities where none existed. 2/ intrinsicinvesting.com/2018/09/18/see…
Precisely because their approach is unconventional, Visionary personalities and management styles tend to look weird or are off-putting to most observers. V-led companies often have a unique, insular, and quirky culture. 3/ intrinsicinvesting.com/2018/05/04/cor…
1/ Why Value & Growth is no longer just about valuation.
The nature of business is not static. While core principals are often timeless, the underlying dynamics can change dramatically over time. Case in point, this is one of the most important charts in investing.
2/ Because GAAP accounting treats corporate investment in tangible assets differently than intangible assets, this shift changes what is deemed “earnings” and thus the meaning of many valuation measures.
3/ The market gets this and has assigned less and less relevance to accounting earnings over time.
This is the classic Christensen cultural/financial issue incumbents have in adapting to disruption... 2/x bloom.bg/36aKtHk
In contrast to Viacom+most incumbents, @Netflix’s culture enabled it to accept the pain of -75% decline in its stock price in 2011 to transition effectively from legacy DVD by mail… after winning rental battle with Blockbuster 3/x
Investors often confuse relevance & recognizability. Just because a customer *recognizes* a brand/service, does not mean it is *relevant* to their lives. Relevance drives attention, attention drives demand, demand drives pricing power. 1/11
This is the path that most successful products/services take. It starts with a relevant product that quickly becomes recognizable. Without good stewardship, its relevance fades even though people still remember it. 2/11
Relevance fade can happen quickly (e.g. a fad) or slowly. Once we’ve determined a product/service/brand relevance is in secular decline, we either won’t invest or will exit an existing position. 3/11