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Ryan O'Farrell Profile picture
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6 Sep, 11 tweets, 9 min read
Leaning *very* heavily on @hengenahm's amazing work, this is as best I can figure the situation in #Panjshir: Taliban overran NRF mountaintop positions (dark green) and crossed the mountains above Gulbahar, giving them access to the valley, then moved troops as far up as Tawakh
Well, looks like the Taliban have taken the Panjshir governor's office in Barazak. Judging by the sun, this footage was taken around 12:30pm
"A senior official of the NRF...confirmed that the Taliban had taken over. 'Yes, Panjshir has fallen'...Ahmad Massoud, is 'at [a] safe place' the official said, adding that Amrullah Saleh...had fled for Tajikistan."washingtonpost.com/world/2021/09/…
Geolocating some older footage from last month in Baghlan as local militias in Andarab, Dehsalah and Pul-e-Hesar districts threw out what few Taliban fighters were there, and were then quickly overwhelmed by the Taliban's response. Baghlan revolts lasted about 48 hours.
Journalists blocked from entering Panjshir
Video from Sept 2 seems pretty instructive on how the Taliban entered Panjshir by infiltrating side valleys and then crossing the mountains, basically flanking the NRF's defensive positions
Other Sept 3 photos show how Taliban fighters seized one mountaintop, likely enabling them to suppress NRF fighters on another and advance through the river valley below; this valley then gave access to flank NRF and enter the main Panjshir valley
(Just to be clear, dates are approximate, usually based on the date that the source I'm quoting posts them)
Video posted today show a Taliban convoy just northeast of Khenj, driving southeast towards Bazarak from the direction of Paryan. Almost certainly means that the Taliban holds the entire central Panjshir valley
*southwest
Sun's position indicates that this morning's video of the Taliban convoy in Khenj was taken around 6am

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More from @ryanmofarrell

Ryan O'Farrell Profile picture
9 Sep
New piece with @Weissenberg7 about the rapid growth in ISCAP-ADF's area of operations since 2017, hints of a new strategy to build support amongst neighboring civilian communities and the nature of communications with IS's central apparatus longwarjournal.org/archives/2021/…
ISCAP-ADF has operated in southern Ituri for several years, but @KivuSecurity has tracked an 82% increase in attacks in the area since June 1, carrying out 66 attacks that have killed 207 people and displaced tens of thousands.
Critical factor to watch is the ADF's apparent outreach - framed in IS propaganda as "da'wah" - to the Banyabwisha community, offering it support in disputes with other communities: huge implications for a primarily-foreign IS affiliate with a limited Congolese domestic base
Read 4 tweets
Ryan O'Farrell Profile picture
29 Jun
Islamic State released photos today of the June 27 ISCAP-ADF attack on Manyala village in Ituri that IS first claimed yesterday - a quick thread on what open source tools, Islamic State propaganda and local reporting reveals about this attack
Local reports described an attack on Manzobe village on Sunday June 27 in the afternoon, with the first Tweet mentioning this specific attack being posted the next morning on June 28th at 4:27am EST/10:27am CAT
8.5 hours later at ~1:00pm EST/7:00 CAT, Islamic State issued a claim through its "Nashir" Telegram channels for an attack on Manyala village (written in Arabic as مانيالا), stating that IS Central Africa Province fighters attacked a FARDC barracks and killed 2 soldiers
Read 10 tweets
Ryan O'Farrell Profile picture
20 Oct 20
ISCAP-ADF carried out a prison break operation at Kangbayi Central Prison on the outskirts of Beni city, freeing ~1300 detainees; Islamic State media outlets quickly claimed the operation
radiookapi.net/2020/10/20/act… ImageImageImageImage
It's notable that a sizable military base is directly across the road - which the IS claim also said was attacked - and judging by the number of buildings, likely had ~100 soldiers; operation was well-planned, and says much about the FARDC's inability to prevent major incursions ImageImageImage
Topographical perspective: ISCAP-ADF fighters reportedly engaged in an hour long gunbattle with FARDC troops at bases both on top of Lao hill and at the foot of the hill before breaking the doors of the prison; comes two days after IS urged prison breaks ImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Ryan O'Farrell Profile picture
17 Oct 20
So in light of "Al-Shabaab's" (ISCAP-Mozambique) attack on Kitaya - just across the the Rovuma river in southern Tanzania - here's a quick thread on jihadist militancy in Tanzania, its ties to the Islamic State, and its role in Mozambique's growing insurgency
Salafism has had a longstanding presence in Tanzania, really gaining prominence in the 1980s as students returned from studying in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere on scholarships from BAKWATA, the government-affiliated Muslim council.
Rejecting BAKWATA's corruption and perceived ineffectiveness - or simply not getting the jobs they expected - many turned to Ansar al-Sunnah, a loosely inter-connected network of private charities and pressure groups that sought to "purify" Tanzanian Islam
Read 10 tweets
Ryan O'Farrell Profile picture
9 May 19
Rapid collapse of rebel lines from Qalaat al-Madiq to Kafr Naboudah is pretty surprising, as is silence from Turkey, whose troops have been directly attacked by regime forces on multiple occasions. Regime forces are within 1.5km of the Turkish observation point on Jabal Shashabo.
Area was primarily held by Ahrar al-Sham and small FSA groups, but HTS defeated them in January and imposed a supervisory role for itself. HTS appears to now simply be abandoning it, with those other "green" rebels in tow.
Turkey's investment into Idlib's power grid might be an indication of which areas they aim to hold: @casgec of HTS's Salvation Government received a $1mil contract in February to repair Idlib's grid and connect it to Turkey; map shows which lines have been repaired since then.
Read 4 tweets

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