Thread by @DaleJohnsonESPN

There's a lot of misinformation out there about the 3pm Saturday TV blackout, so a detailed thread on:

- Why it exists
- Why other top leagues don't use the blackout
- What about illegal streaming / ifollow?
- Is it past its sell-by in modern football?

Article 48 of the UEFA Statutes allows any association to decide on 2.5 hours on a Saturday or Sunday, during which any transmission of football may be prohibited within the territory.

England (and Scotland) applies this as 2.45pm to 5.15pm on a Saturday.

This isn't done in England (and Scotland) to protect the attendances at top-flight matches, but throughout the football pyramid.

England has the deepest pyramid, in terms of attendances, and no other league has such a traditional and sacrosanct time for football for ALL games.

No one seriously expects a season ticket holder at Rochdale or Torquay to stop going because you can watch Man United or Arsenal at 3pm on a Saturday.

It's thousands of walk-up, casual fans who keep the turnstiles ticking with new cash.

Remember, season ticket holders pay their money in the summer, there's no residual turnstile spend from them.

It's the casual fans who pay their £10-25 on the turnstile, plus other spends, which helps to keep these clubs running.

And it's the away fans who travel in numbers.

It's also not about 1 game, or 1 weekend.

It's about habit-forming, it's about behavioural patterns. It's about how removing the blackout could, in the long-term, have an irreversible effect on parts of the pyramid.

That's the general ethos of the blackout.

On a freezing cold winter's Saturday at 3pm would these floating fans, or away fans, decide to sit at home and watch Man United/Arsenal/Chelsea on the sofa rather than go to the match?

Or would they not leave the prematch pub (to pay on gate) if PL is on the big screen?

The answer is, no one knows. But if the fears are right, and live 3pm football is damaging, it will never be rolled back.

And the attendance fall might not be significant on one Saturday, but across perhaps 13 Saturdays the funding gap could be marked.

Clubs rely on the Saturday 3pm income as their lifeblood.

Midweek gates have always been lower for many reasons, and the EFL's decision to allow red button / ifollow streaming of these matches has hit them even harder.

So Saturdays are the money-spinner for all clubs.

Onto the stuff you won't read about: Why the blackout isn't in other top leagues.

The key example always used is Germany, and how attendances aren't affected by all Bundesliga games being live on TV at 3.30pm on a Saturday.

Simple fact: No one goes up against the Bundesliga.

In Germany, the 2. Bundesliga has its own kickoff slot at 1.30pm on Saturday, when no Bundesliga games are played.

3. Liga is at 2pm on a Saturday, slight overlap with the Bundesliga (3.30pm KO).

And the 6 4th-tier regional leagues all avoid direct clashed with the Bundesliga.

In fact, no other top league even qualifies for a blackout. 50% of top 2 divisions must be at same time.

England - 3pm Sat - 73%
Germany - 3.30pm Sat - 28% (all Bund)
France - 3pm Sun - 20% (all Ligue 1)
Italy - 3pm Sun - 15% (all Serie A)
Spain - no simultaneous LaLiga games

In France, Ligue 2 plays Saturday 7pm when no Ligue 1 games are on.

In Italy, Serie B games are played at 2pm on a Saturday (though only a few), which may overlap with a minor Serie A game (3pm).

In Spain, games in La Liga and LaLiga are generally spread with no "clustering".

English football just isn't like any other country.

Other major leagues have a blackout in another form, by spreading their fixtures to avoid clustering; either giving second tiers their own slot or having a set top-flight fixture time.

This would be a hard-sell in England.

English football, of course, goes far deeper than the Championship. The 3pm Saturday kickoff goes right through the pyramid. All the way. It just doesn't exist elsewhere.

For example, attendances in League 1 are 42% higher than German 3. Liga - next highest-supported country.

Lots of people say "everyone knows where an illegal stream is," but that's not really true.

Of course, many do, but it's really not an en masse situation.

If you think most people (not on Twitter) will know where to find Man Utd v Newcastle on Saturday, you'd be mistaken.

Most using "illegal streams" every Saturday are unlikely to be going to other games, you'd have to think.

You probably won't transfer these people from "illegal streams" to pay-for TV.

These fans have never been what the blackout is about.

But if you remove the blackout and enable live 3pm matches, you open up the TV option to all the people who watch legally on TV subscriptions, who watch in pubs, who watch round their mates' house.

This is the audience that the blackout targets.

The funding EFL clubs get from ifollow is also a fraction of that earned from gates.

No doubt some of the biggest clubs in the lower leagues would make additional money off increased ifollow vs. match attendance, but for most clubs lost gate receipts would reduce income.

The smaller clubs get a terrible deal from ifollow, it's hugely weighted in favour of the bigger clubs - especially those with large away followings.

Home clubs get 95% of away match ticket sales.
But away clubs keep additional ifollow revenue, it's a poor deal for small clubs.

Is the blackout even necessary?

All the attention is on Man United v Newcastle and Cristiano Ronaldo's return, while Leicester v Man City is incredibly also at 3pm this Saturday.

Of the 7 rounds so far announced, only Oct 23 doesn't feature a "Big Six" team.

In 3 of the 7 rounds, there are 3 Saturday 3pm games featuring one of the "Big Six".

The idea that Saturday 3pm is now made up of the so-called smaller teams isn't really true - but remember removing the blackout would enable the live broadcast of other leagues too.

The question for the anti-blackout brigade: if it's so needless, why do the other major leagues create a situation whereby the top division doesn't go up against the rest?

Be that by a designated kickoff time for the top division, or spreading all games, it's avoided.

For the Premier League to follow the rest of Europe, and drop the blackout, you would need to have:

- No Premier League games at 3pm on a Saturday, or
- 10 individual kick-off times (only one at 3pm Sat)

Is this acceptable to your match-going Premier League fan? I doubt it.

Also worth pointing out that a lot of season ticket holders/fans of PL clubs watch their smaller local team, when the PL team are away.

If the blackout goes, and their PL away games are on TV at 3pm on a Saturday, this has to affect attendances at those local clubs.

An additional point on ifollow and lost income.

For example:
You have a group of say 4 friends who would go, and pay £20 a ticket plus a pint each.

They decide to watch on ifollow. They don't buy 4 ifollow passes. They buy 1.

Income of £100 for that club becomes £6.66.

Best I correct the League One vs. German 3. Liga attendance difference stat. It was badly skewed by closed German grounds vs. curtailed League One.

2016-17: 32.86% higher gates in League One
2017-18: 26.27%
2018-19: 7.53%