Can Opposition defeat BJP/Mr. Modi in 2024? If the answer is yes then what should be the formula? Please find my analysis. Warning :Long thread. #GeneralElection2024 1/n
I travelled Bihar, UP, Goa, West Bengal, Karnataka, Odisha, Assam, Haryana, and Delhi in the last 6 months. I interacted with the people. I felt that it is difficult to defeat BJP/Mr. Modi in 2024 but it is not impossible. 2/n
I felt that there is anti incumbency against BJP. The lower and middle income group is hit due to reduction of their income. Youths are unhappy with the present scenario of employment situation. People are frustrated with the inflation. 3/n
The steady price increase of Gas Cylinder, Mustard Oil, Milk, Sugar, Petrol and Diesel makes the life difficult for common people. The small traders felt that their business is down for the last two years. 4/n
People who were employed with the construction sector (directly or indirectly) lost their job opportunity. People who are employed with the tourism and hospitality sector also feeling the same. 5/n
To summarize, the segments who are unhappy with BJP:
1.Lower income group
2.People dependent on tourism sector like drivers, hotel owners
3.Public Sector Employees
4.Unemployed youths
5.Bank employees
6.Housewives 6/n
7.Farmers with large land control/ Sugarcane farmers
8.Small traders
9.People who are involved in cultural events like music, theatres etc
10.People who are involved with NGOs
11.Muslims+Sikhs+Jats+Christians 7/n
It is not the case that everyone is unhappy with BJP. The segments that is happy with BJP:
1.People employed with armed forces especially who were posted in J&K
2.Big traders/businessmen
3.Upper middle Class
4.Salaried employees (income level>5 Lakhs) 8/n
5.Hindi speaking people staying outside Hindi heartland
6.Gujrati speaking people settled outside Gujarat
7.Kashmiri Pandits, Bengali speaking people settled in Assam
BJP Central leadership also understand the ground reality. BJP changed CM in 3 states to counter it. 9/n
People are desperately looking for a leader who can create jobs, who can keep their business running. Please note, they are not looking for any direct help from the government. They want to lead a respected life. They are not interested in Hindu-Muslim narrative. 10/n
Though there are exceptions. There is a Hindu vote consolidation happening where Muslim population is more than 30%. 11/n
People don’t believe dat RahulGandhi/ArvindKejriwal can create jobs/repair the economy. We find many people who r not happy with the performance of Mr. Modi but still prefer him as next PM. So if you ask whom do you want to see as next PM, around 60% will say Modi. 12/n
But if you ask that how do you rate the performance of PM Modi then only 30% will say as very good or excellent. There is lack of alternative in people’s mind. Opposition has to come up with better alternative. 13/n
Now opposition leaderships should understand this ground reality. If people find someone who is credible enough to create jobs, control the inflation, improve the economy, people will support him/her wholeheartedly. I personally feel that no politician can defeat Mr. Modi. 14/n
He is the best to take on any politician at present condition. Mr. Modi also has the support of the eco system.
The Indian election is becoming predominately presidential type. Without deciding a face, opposition can’t take on Mr. Modi. 15/n
The PM face for the opposition should be Mr. Raghuram Rajan as per my analysis. The opposition should go ahead to declare a team rather than only PM face. The team should comprise of the following key people: 16/n
1.Raghuram Rajan (Prime Minister)
2.Rahul Gandhi (UPA Chairperson)
3.Hemant Soren (Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister)
4.Jayant Choudhari (Agricultural Minister)
5.Lt Gen DS Hooda
6.Jairam Ramesh
7.Sachin Pilot
8.Rohit Pawar
9.Aditya Thakre 17/n
10.Alok Kumar Mehta
11.Gaurav Gogoi
12.Abhishek Banerjee
13.Hanuman Beniwal
14.Jignesh Mewani
15.Hardik Patel
17.Eknath Khadse
20.R P N Singh
21.Bhupesh Baghel
23.Nana Patole
25.Chirag Paswan
26.OM Prakash Rajbhar
27.Pawan Khera
28.Manickam Tagore
29.Krishna Byre Gowda
30.Kunwar Danish Ali
31.Avinash Manglam
32.Deepender Singh Hooda
33.Ravneet Singh Bittu
34.Dr Hiralal Alawa
The team should be young and energetic. 90% of the Now let me explain why do i feel that Mr. Raghuram Rajan is the best suited for the opposition PM face. It will be easy to make people believe that Mr. Rajan can create jobs because of his credentials. 20/n
It is no doubt that he will be best suited for handling the economy. He will set the election narrative on job creation. He can invite the BJP for a debate. At present there is no one from BJP, who can debate with Mr. Rajan on economic issues. 21/n
In India, Caste is very important. Mr. Rajan is a bramhin. His alumni network will be extremely helpful in terms of arranging funds. Corporate sector will be very enthusiastic with Mr. Rajan. 22/n
Tribals of India are the deciding factor in atleast 60 Parliament seats which is spread across Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharastra, Rajasthan, Assam (Tea-Tribes). BJP is winning around 50 seats from here. 23/n
Once Mr. Hemant Soren is declared as Deputy Prime Minister, it would help the opposition to win majority of the seats. His experience as Jharkhand CM will be extremely useful to solve the naxalite issues of India. 24/n
It will also give confidence to the tribals that their land right will remain safe under the new government. The opposition need to consolidate the segments which are unhappy with BJP. They shd not try for 100% vote. Target and positioning are the key. N/n end

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More from @partha2019LS

12 May
Looking to expand my team. If anyone is interested in please let me know. It will be a paid internship. You need to have a laptop n internet. You are supposed to download some files, convert that pdf into excel and create a editable pooling booth wise results. #opportunity
At present you will get a pilot project. Once you submit, i will take the final call.
Pick any file from this link :…
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6 May
At #Madhyamgram assembly segment, the Muslim voters are around 29%. In 2021 assembly election, the Muslim vote got divided between TMC & ISF. @AITCofficial & ISF both managed to get 48% of the Muslim votes. BJP polled only 1% of Muslim votes.
Among Hindu voters at #Madhyamgram, @AITCofficial managed to get 49% of the Hindu votes, @BJP4India managed to get 37% of the Hindu vote & ISF managed 11% of Hindu vote in #BengalElection2021 @iam_indro
Please find how Muslim dominated booths voted at Madhyamgram in #BengalElection2021 Image
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24 Dec 18
Analyzing recent #Tribal Voting Patterns and Trends..There are 51 parliament seats in Central India (Chattisgarh,MP,Gujarat,Rajasthan,Odisha,Jharkhand n Maharastra) where Tribal voters are more than 20%. What are the indications in #assemblyelections2018 ? Lets analyze.
In #Chattisgarh there are 7 Parliament seats where #Tribal Population is >20%. @BJP4India won all 7 in 2014 parliament election. The avg. tribal population in these seats is 44.5%. @BJP4India lost an average vote% of 17.5% in these seats. Huge loss. Refer the attached pics.
In #MP there are 10 Parliament seats where #Tribal Population is >20%. @BJP4India won 9 in 2014 parliament election. The avg. tribal population in these seats is 42.8%. @BJP4India lost an average vote% of 11.4% in these seats. Huge loss. Refer the attached pic.
Read 7 tweets

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