1/ My thoughts on the $CRYPTO market for the upcoming week, Tuesday is a BIG day!👇

Sponsored by @Delta_Exchange

'Fear and Indecisiveness'
2/ The Crypto markets have shifted into a range-bound environment following last week’s mass liquidation event in the crypto derivatives market.

Since the 7th September, $5,000,000,000 USD of open interest has left the BTC futures market.

Neither bulls or bears have been able to take a firm grip, leaving the market hunting stops at the range high and low!

If you’re a swing trader or long-term investor this is very painful to watch and all signs point to this type of price action continuing in the short-term

#LambdaStrike indicates that Bitcoin and Ethereum are in what is called a ‘Volatility Squeeze’ environment, in such an environment the high probability play is to buy at the range low (in this case it would be $43,000 USD) and sell at the range high ($47,000 USD).

It is worth noting that a ‘Volatility Squeeze’ often precedes a large directional move.

Implied Volatility is trending lower, however did spike briefly on Monday as news of a partnership between Walmart and Litecoin ($LTC) trended across Twitter and across news outlets.

The news was short lived (as was the spike in IV) as Walmart quickly denied the claims of a partnership.

Litecoin moved as high as $237 USD (30% higher on the day) but ended up closing the day down at $179 USD

As for the significance of this event, US authorities may use this as ammunition for when they inevitably go after Crypto Exchanges. The tweet below is commentary on an excerpt from Gary Gensler’s pre-prepared statement to US Senate on Tuesday.


‘Investor Protection’ is the key theme that Gensler is trying to push ahead of his statement. It's likely that the $LTC move on Monday, can and will be used as an example to further the ‘Investor Protection’ narrative when the SEC push for more regulation on ‘Crypto Finance’

The short-term implications of this event on the Crypto market could be quite negative. Gensler is said to be targeting stable coins and tackling the topic of crypto ‘tokens’ as securities…

a pre-prepared statement from Gensler tells that the SEC believe that the majority of tokens listed on major Crypto exchanges at the current time, are in fact ‘securities’ and should be treated as such.

It will remain to be seen, if the SEC are genuinely pushing the ‘Investor Protection’ narrative to protect investors, OR, if they are doing this for other reasons!

Compounding this risk event for the crypto markets is the release of US inflation data (CPI data), so prepare yourself on for heightened market volatility intra-day on Tuesday!

'Indecisive Options Market Flows'

Both #Bitcoin and #Ethereum have established defined trading ranges over recent days, forming the perfect environment for buying support and selling at resistance!

Although this a great way for scalpers to make money, swing traders are feeling the pain of low volatility!

The options market seems to indicate that this low volatility will continue at least in the short-term, positive gamma should keep price ‘pinned’ at current levels

This week's economic calendar

I have my eyes on TUESDAY!

Key intra-day levels for both #BTC and #Ethereum courtesy of @lambdamarkets1

Thanks for listening to my Ted talk!

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More from @tedtalksmacro

17 Aug

Options market analysis on #BTC headed into the August month-end expiry!

Gamma Exposure...

#BTC sees positive gamma concentrated between $44k and $50k, with $50k being the high gamma strike.

This tells me that $44k should be the floor and price gravitates toward $50k!

I often look for any spike higher in 'volatility skew' to gauge whether or not the market is in demand for downside protection - put buying as a hedge for #BTC long exposure

7-day skew has spiked and perhaps suggests some short-term demand for downside protection

'Implied volatility term structure' suggests that there is no real panic and demand for volatility related products - which is in my opinion, very positive for #BTC bulls

Considering that Bitcoin is at key HTF resistance, the lack of demand for volatility is quite impressive
Read 6 tweets
16 Aug

My thoughts on the $CRYPTO market over the coming weeks!

Hope you enjoy!

'Funding rates are yet to spike'

'Funding rates are yet to spike' (ctd)

'FOMO is around the corner'
Read 7 tweets
11 Aug

Altcoin request video analysis, I've selected about 20 coins suggested by you guys to do some charting on!

First up $DOT and $LINK 👇


Read 9 tweets
29 Jul

A bullish development for the $CRYPTO space over recent weeks has been that '25-delta skew' has trended lower and is now below 0 for the first time since early May 2021...

I'll attempt to briefly explain the significance of this now


First, let's visualize the #BTC chart and '25-delta skew' chart to show how the two are correlated!

When skew peaks, it often leads a #BTC rally, when skew bottoms it often signals a #BTC sell-off... Monitoring skew in early May would have told you that a sell-off was near ImageImage

What the hell is '25-delta skew' and why is it important?

This metric measures the relative 'expensiveness' of calls (bullish bets) to puts (bearish bets) - a reading above 0 indicates demand for puts (bearish), the opposite is also true!

@skewdotcom skew calculation below Image
Read 6 tweets
15 Jun

The @federalreserve deliver its statement on monetary policy and updated economic projections on Wednesday

This has the potential to create a large, volatile move across markets, including $CRYPTO!

I'll do my best to explain the significance of this now

(RT appreciated)

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic the US Federal Reserve has stimulated the US economy like never before, with the goal of leading the US economy out of a recessionary environment.

In the process of delivering the monetary stimulus, the FED has promoted financial risk-taking and provided the catalyst for a sustained bull run 🔥

Up until this point, I dare say that most have benefited from such risk-taking… which is great!
Read 16 tweets
7 Jun
1/ Here's why Thursday, June 10, has the potential to significantly move financial markets (including $CRYPTO)

(Retweets appreciated!)

June 10 sees KEY economic data out of the US scheduled for release at 12:30pm UTC...

This data has the potential to 'spook' investors into selling their 'long-risk' positions.

'long-risk' referring to equities, commodities and $CRYPTO etc.

Given the current uber-relaxed stance to monetary policy by central banks, most investors are currently positioned for risk-ON (long equities, crypto, commodities etc.)

Borrowing money and therefore spending/investing it is currently very cheap, thanks to Central Banks.
Read 15 tweets

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