1/ Observed correlation:

The better the trader, the less they care about which specific product/market they're trading.

That doesn't mean they don't have deep knowledge of the market or product. Far from it.

It means they don't *care*.
2/ Conversely, I see a lot of aspiring, new, and frankly bad traders who care a *lot* about the product.

"I trade options," "I trade futures" like it's a religious commitment. It's not. The product you're trading is a means to an end, at least if you care about money.
3/ One of the founders of my former company loved saying something like:

"If they made financial markets illegal tomorrow, we'd probably suffer for a while but we'd eventually be fine. We'll just go find something else to trade."

I think he was right.
4/ Again, I'm not saying you shouldn't try to get incredibly good at understanding the products you're trading. You definitely *should*.

But *starting* with the product is definitely a mistake.

"I want to get into options trading."

5/ To the extent it's because options are cool, or options are hard, or options are what {person I admire} trades, you're just trading off $ so that you can feel a feeling.

That's fine, but don't expect to be the one with all the chips at the end of the night.


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More from @AgustinLebron3

6 Sep
1/ A thread about the relationship between getting older and learning new things.

2/ It’s a weird relationship. One way of looking at it is through the lens of the explore-exploit tradeoff.
3/ In reinforcement learning, when you have to act in a novel environment and learn in an online way, there's a tension between trying new things vs doing the things you’ve already learned are good.
Read 24 tweets
27 Jul
There’s a subtle but very real fallacy about backtesting that lots of smart quant-y people fall into. I’ve fallen into it many times. And arguably I still do, just in more and more subtle ways.

A thread 👉👉

So you have a trading strategy, and you want to backtest it to see if it’s any good. Being good boys and girls and others, we know we mustn’t overfit to the data we already have.

We know that historical data is precious gold, and it must be used carefully.

Well, imagine I propose the following solution: build a model of the market in all its gory detail: fat tails, heteroskedasticity, vol clustering, etc etc. I calibrate this model using historical data, and it’s pretty good.

It's awesome in fact.

Read 14 tweets
14 Jul
1/ How the hiring game is like trading, and vice versa.

A thread. 👉👉👉
2/ Most of what I talk about here is trading, but one of the things that pays my bills is helping companies get better at hiring.

I don’t usually talk much about that.

Mostly because the audience for that stuff is… niche.
3/ But it’s become clear, over the years of helping clients hire better, that a lot of what I’m teaching is trading skills and mindsets.

Here’s what I mean...
Read 29 tweets
16 Jun
1/ I immigrated to the US 20 years ago, and I don't regret the decision. The people, the opportunities. It really *is* a wonderful country.

But downsides exist and they can basically all be summarized by the leafblower.

A thread... 👇
2/ What is a leafblower? It's a motorized wind generator that moves light outdoor particles (leaves, twigs, dirt/dust).

Facts about the common leafblower and its typical use:
3/ It's gas-powered with a 2-stroke engine.

That means it's incredibly loud and incredibly smelly. You can't mistake the odor. It's an crappy-machine solution to a pseudo-problem.
Read 8 tweets
2 May
1/ Reading @nope_its_lily and this hit hard:

"In all honesty, most finfluencers have pretty shit takes on the market. It kind of arises based on the mismatch between the skills required to actually trade and the skills required to market oneself."

2/ That statement is insanely and ridiculously correct.

I think everyone who has other high-value uses of their time goes through the same thought process.

"Why am I doing this?"
3/ I mean, if you wanted to read and learn from #fintwit, you could do so without posting.

If you're not selling anything (or trying to raise AUM which is the same thing), it makes very very little sense.
Read 9 tweets
20 Apr
I just answered an emailed question. I suspect @KrisAbdelmessih @SinclairEuan @therobotjames and others get these too.

"I'm a smart engineering/CS/math student/graduate. How do I get into quant trading?"

A thread. 👉

2/ I'm going to preface this by asking an important question:

Why trading?

Almost every outsider has an idea of what trading is that's pretty far from the reality. It's not "deploy cool ML models on gigabytes of data". It's:
- Do I have enough cash margin in account JP44315A?
- Why does the data format disseminated by broker X suck so much with this new update?
- How do I optimize my tax footprint?

And a thousand other little annoyances. Plus:

- Am I about to incinerate $ somehow?
Read 10 tweets

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