This announcement has major implications for France at least at three levels: economically, strategically and politically.
Economically, this decision is a massive loss not only for the French shipbuilder Naval Group but also for dozens of SMEs and more broadly for the French defense industrial basis (whose business model is based on national procurement & armament export).
Strategically, the π«π·π¦πΊ contract was far more than a business deal. Once compared by then Defense minister Le Drian as a "50-year marriage", this project had a strategic importance by creating opportunities for π«π·π¦πΊ collaboration in weapons, communications and intelligence.
Politically, the way the agreement was announced by Washington, London and Canberra without true consultation of Paris beforehand is unseemly, particularly between close allies and especially given the interests at stakes for France.
Only two weeks ago, the foreign and defense ministers of France and Australia signed an ambitious bilateral roadmap in which they "committed to deepen defense industry cooperation" and "underlined the importance of the Future Submarine program" ... foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marisβ¦
Of course, this decision will not mark the end of the French-Australian partnership which is growing and key for France's strategy in the Indo-Pacific as I stressed in a @WarOnTheRocks piece a few months ago ...
... nor will it means that France will stop cooperating with the United States in this critical region where the π«π·πΊπΈ military collaboration is key (in terms of intelligence sharing, bases access, exercises).
But this decision will undoubtedly have a toll on France's relations with Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom. This is truly disappointing as a strong and trusted cooperation between these countries is paramount to face the many challenges of the Indo-Pacific.
And one important reminder: πΊπΈ&π¬π§ were not in competition with π«π· in a tender process. This process took place five years ago (with a competition notably with Sweden and Japan) and did not imply a nuclear-powered submarine design.
To conclude, today's announcement might be seen as a good news by many experts, as it illustrates deepening ties between π¬π§πΊπΈ & π¦πΊ but the π«π· dimension of this decision should not be downplayed, especially given France's strategic position in the Indo-Pacific.
Here is the official response of France to the π¬π§π¦πΊπΊπΈ announcement. Very strong words:
"This decision is contrary to the letter and the spirit of the cooperation that prevailed between France and Australia, based on a relationship of political trust".
"The US choice to exclude a European ally and partner such as France from a structuring partnership with Australia, at a time when we are facing unprecedented challenges in the Indo-Pacific region ...
... whether in terms of our values or in terms of respect for multilateralism based on the rule of law, shows a lack of coherence that France can only note and regret".
[Thread] French President @EmmanuelMacron on #Afghanistan. First, π«π· President recalled that France has been engaged militarily in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2014. "Our fight was just. France had only one enemy there: terrorism". "We will not forget our dead soldiers, 90 in total".
On the ongoing situation in #Kabul, President Macron stressed that the situation was "deteriorating rapidly". Immediate initiatives are needed "to respond to the humanitarian catastrophe".
The immediate emergency is the evacuation of π«π· nationals and Afghans who have worked for France. The πΊπΈ support is "indispensable" in that regard. France will also protect the Afghans in danger because of their commitment for freedom.
#Afghanistan | French minister for Foreign Affairs just issued a statement on the situation in #Kabul. A short 𧡠on what France is doing to help its citizens and the Afghan people despite the dire circumstances π
1/ First, France has relocated its Embassy (@AmbassadeKaboul) to the Kabul airport, which will "remain operational and active" in order to evacuate all French citizens. Our Ambassador @david_martinon just posted a video of him leaving the Green Zone:
This morning French foreign minister delivered an important speech at @CarnegieEndow and @franceintheus on France's vision for the Indo-Pacific and China. A 𧡠for those who missed it π
First, Jean-Yves Le Drian stressed that the Indo-Pacific has become "a central region for the balances of the world" and that there is a "rising awareness" among Europeans about this strategic shift.
France is particularly cognizant of the importance of the Indo-Pacific, as it defines itself as an "Indo-Pacific nation" thanks to its overseas territories which are home to 1.6 million French citizens. These territories provide to France the second largest EEZ in the world.
My @CSIS colleague @cy_newlin and I have a new piece out today on #cyber. As the Biden administration is resuming its cyber dialogue with Moscow, France has some interesting lessons to share from its own experience with Russia. A thread π
In a bid for increased transparency and predictability with Russia, France initiated in 2018 several channels of dialogue: a confidential βdeconfliction lineβ to discuss cyber incidents, as well as broader diplomatic consultations.
France essentially pursued three objectives: (1) addressing in a direct and confidential manner cyberattacks originating in Russia; (2) better understanding Russian cyber doctrine and apparatus; (3) engaging with Russia on norms of responsible behavior in cyberspace.
π―π΅π«π· Just quickly read through the Japanese version of Japan 2021 defense white paper (681 page long !). France is mentioned 117 times in the document and is described as a "major power with influence not only in Europe and Africa, but also in the world".
The document underlines that France "is the only EU member state with a permanent military presence in the Indo-Pacific region" with "about 6,000 personnel, including naval vessels, stationed there".
π―π΅ defense paper also outlines that France and Japan are "both maritime nations and Pacific nations [which] decided to launch a comprehensive maritime dialogue to promote concrete cooperation to maintain and strengthen a free and open Indo-Pacific".