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Lakshya Jain Profile picture
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17 Sep, 4 tweets, 2 min read
We've updated our 2021 #VAGov model with the recent Emerson poll. The projection now has McAuliffe (D) winning by 7.5 points, with an 80% chance of victory in November.

You can view county margins for the model made by me and @Thorongil16 at striderforecasts.com
I do expect this to actually move as more polling comes in, but we're currently not seeing many polls, and so due to recency being factored into the model, a newer poll in a polling drought will have a bit more of an effect than you might expect. (someone please poll this race!)
As a reminder, polls are broken into three parts: topline (50%), electorate screen (25%), and crosstabs (25%). We combine this with 2020 margins and education-based turnout fundamentals (calculated via legislative district turnout regressions) to get our projection.
If a poll doesn't release crosstab data but is confirmed as nonpartisan, we add it in to the topline-based portion of the model. If it's an internal poll, we only add it into the model at all if it releases crosstab data and electorate screening information.

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Lakshya Jain Profile picture
17 Sep
This is also one of the more conservative estimates of the college-educated electorate share -- McAuliffe wins college voters by 22 points (similar to what Biden did) but WaPo's LV screen says the share of college voters *drops* by a few points from 2020. Bit skeptical of that.
If anything, I'd have thought the enthusiasm gap would have been shown more in intra-group turnout differential (e.g. college Rs are more likely to turn out than college Dems), but that's not happening in this poll at all!! It's basically a weird electorate screen.
McAuliffe is winning college voters by a greater margin than Biden did. So it's a bit strange to see, then, that the delta between non-college and college voters is *higher* than it was in 2020, and it cuts counter to most of what we already know re: turnout, hence my skepticism.
Read 5 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
16 Sep
I wrote about midterm electorates, their changes from presidential years, and the partisan implications today in the Crystal Ball. Educated voters seem to turn out more while minorities turn out less, and that makes 2022 fascinatingly complicated.

centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
In states like New Hampshire or Wisconsin, it is plausible that your electorate might be more Biden supporting than it was a year ago, at least in terms of 2020 vote cast, because of how white they are…
But that doesn’t mean Democrats would actually do better, though, because voters could be persuaded to vote R (shown by Biden’s currently low approval ratings) — the picture for a good Democratic 2020 in those states that largely relies upon keeping those suburban gains intact
Read 5 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
11 Sep
If I had to take a guess at the #CARecall margin, I’d probably say No wins by 17, based on the available evidence. There’s been some very serious late movement towards Newsom and it’ll take a Herculean lift and a massive polling error for Yes to have a whiff of a chance here.
And once again, it was exceptionally smart of Newsom’s camp to not field a replacement candidate. That’s the only way you keep the Democrats all in line, and if you do that, recall gets squashed.
Anyways, if that does happen, Newsom would emerge stronger than ever before, because the press insistence on making it a horse race would backfire badly and cost the CA GOP their best 2022 candidate in Faulconer, and Newsom would have overperformed public expectations by a lot.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
9 Sep
No such question has been settled, considering that non-college rural whites have one of the lowest voting observable propensity rates, and if you think people will let a vaccine mandate from 2021 influence their 2022 voting likelihood, you might be overreacting again.
I feel like the last five years should have taught people not to overreact to a single news cycle and yet here we are every time something happens that conservatives or liberals think will be the death knell for the other party.
FWIW, racial minorities, who still break heavily Dem, have fairly low voting propensity rates too, so the "will the 2022 electorate be more or less Biden-supporting (in terms of presidential vote cast) than 2020?" question probably hinges to some degree on their turnout also.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
30 Aug
🚨#VAGOV MODEL ALERT🚨

@Thorongil16 and I have made a model for the 2022 Virginia governor race, based on polling and state fundamentals.

Our current forecast is Likely Democratic, with a Democratic win probability of 79%, and a D+8.2 forecasted margin.

striderforecasts.com
50% of the model is based on polls, weighted for sample size and recency. 25% uses a 2013/2017 composite educational turnout screen and applies polling margins by education. 25% uses 2020 margins, split by education, for voters and applies it to the poll electorates.
For the county forecast, we calculate the expected lean of each county by taking a composite average of county PVI relative to statewide average for 2020, 2017, and 2013, and we apply our model's overall forecast to the county leans.
Read 6 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
24 Aug
California recall is under a month away, and we have our first sets of mail return data! Let’s break down the numbers, per @paulmitche11.

My initial takeaway: This is beginning a lot like 2020's mail returns did, and that's pretty good news for Democrats. But still early.
In CA, 68% of November 2020 ballots were cast by mail. AP estimates that Biden won them 72-26. The Dem/Ind/GOP split was 50/25/25 in share of returned ballots. Currently, it’s 56/22/22 in the first batch of data (5% returned; November saw 61% returned).
Yesterday, the report we got indicated 3% of ballot returns. From there, Democratic share has dipped a percent or two, which makes sense considering how few ballots have been returned and how Democrats tend to return their ballots earlier.
Read 13 tweets

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