Did states that cut off expanded unemployment benefits early see a surge in job growth? We just got August data from @BLS_gov, and the answer still appears to be "no."
A thread updating this story: nytimes.com/2021/08/20/bus…
States that kept expanded unemployment benefits actually saw slightly *faster* job growth in August than states that ended all pandemic programs, though the difference was not statistically significant.
We see the same basic pattern if we instead compare states that kept benefits to those that cut off ANY benefits (i.e. including those that cut the $300 add-on but kept PUA/PEUC).
Ditto when we just focus on the private sector (though here the difference is VERY small).
In states that kept UI benefits, employment in leisure and hospitality rose more slowly in August than in July. But in states that cut the benefits early, leisure and hospitality employment actually fell.
To be clear, we should not assume that UI explains that divergence. States that cut benefits have also seen bigger Delta surges (on average), which almost certainly had an effect on the hospitality sector. I'd love to see an analysis that attempted to control for that.
More generally, it's hard to draw firm conclusions about the impact of UI policy from state-level data. These states are very different, both before and during Covid.
States that cut benefits tended to have milder employment losses due to Covid in the first place, for example.
We can try to compare pairs of states that had relatively similar employment experiences during Covid, to see what has happened since benefits were cut. This isn't a formal analysis, but it sure doesn't look like there has been a surge in employment in states that cut benefits.
This is consistent with research from @arindube and others who have found that cutting off UI had a fairly small impact on job-finding rates, and who have argued that the impact on aggregate employment would likely be even smaller. nytimes.com/2021/08/20/bus…
I would emphasize that all of this evidence is preliminary. There will undoubtedly be more rigorous analyses as we get more detailed data. And we don't know what will happen as time goes on and people run through whatever savings they have left.
But the data so far seems pretty clear that there has not been the big flood of people back to work that some advocates for ending UI benefits were predicting. If there has been an impact on employment, in either direction, it has been small.
Key caveat here: The state-level data is noisy, and there are a LOT of differences between these states, both in general and in how they've responded to the pandemic in particular. So it's not easy to design a clean experiment here.
That said: It sure doesn't look like there's been a big jump in employment in the states that cut benefits so far. A few charts:
Job openings hit a new record in June, but crucially, hires *also* rose. Suggests employers are finding a way through the labor logjam. #JOLTS bls.gov/news.release/e…
Different story in leisure and hospitality, however, where openings were up again but hiring was flat (though still high by historical standard, consistent with what we saw in the monthly jobs reports).
It's a good time to be looking for a job (and a hard time to be trying to hire): There was just under 1 unemployed worker for every job opening in June. (Note that this adjusts for workers misclassified as "employed," though not for people who have left the labor force.)
U.S. gross domestic product rose 1.6 percent in the second quarter (6.5 percent annualized), bringing inflation-adjusted output back to prepandemic levels. But the recovery is far from complete. nytimes.com/2021/07/29/bus…
Note that returning to prepandemic peak does not mean that we're back to where we would have been without the pandemic at all. We've missed out on a year of economic growth.
After the last recession, it took two years for G.D.P. to return to its previous level. This time, it took half as long.
The pandemic changed nearly every aspect of our lives -- work, play, parenting, even sleep. But it didn't affect everyone the same way. @ellawinthrop & I dove deep into the American Time Use Survey to see the effects of Covid, and how we adapted to it. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Note: The pandemic also disrupted data collection itself, so all these charts are for May 10 - Dec. 31, after the most intense periods of lockdown. So think of it as a glimpse of how we lived life as the pandemic dragged on.
We spent a lot less time with people outside our own households in 2020 and a lot more time alone. Seniors spent the most time alone (8+ waking hours), but it was young ppl who experienced the biggest change. Teens (15-19) went from spending 4.5 hours alone in 2019 to 6 in 2020.
Time for a #jobsday charts thread! Starting off a bit differently this month: Wages.
Avg. earnings up 10 cents/hour in June, and 43 cents over the past three months.
On one hand: Growth slowing. OTOH: Earnings now well above pre-pandemic trajectory.
We're seeing serious wage pressure in leisure and hospitality, consistent with anecdotal reports. Avg. earnings for nonsupervisors up 37 cents/hour in June, and more than $1.50 over past year.
Despite drop early in pandemic, their wages are now also above pre-crisis trend.
Notably, though, average weekly hours fell, both overall and for leisure and hospitality. That's surprising in an environment where employers can't find enough workers.
U.S. employers added 850k jobs in June. Unemployment rate nudged up to 5.9%.
Full coverage: nytimes.com/2021/07/02/bus…
Household survey is less strong. Participation flat, employment actually ever so slightly negative.
Another big gain in leisure and hospitality. Also in government (mostly local education -- have to look for possible seasonal adjustment issues there).