Share this page!

Ben Casselman Profile picture
Twitter logo
2 Jul, 4 tweets, 1 min read
U.S. employers added 850k jobs in June. Unemployment rate nudged up to 5.9%.
Full coverage:
nytimes.com/2021/07/02/bus…
Household survey is less strong. Participation flat, employment actually ever so slightly negative.
Another big gain in leisure and hospitality. Also in government (mostly local education -- have to look for possible seasonal adjustment issues there).
Average earnings up another 10 cents/hour. Notable line from the BLS release: "The data for recent months suggest that the rising demand for labor associated with the recovery from
the pandemic may have put upward pressure on wages."

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Ben Casselman

Ben Casselman Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @bencasselman

Ben Casselman Profile picture
2 Jul
Time for a #jobsday charts thread! Starting off a bit differently this month: Wages.
Avg. earnings up 10 cents/hour in June, and 43 cents over the past three months.
On one hand: Growth slowing. OTOH: Earnings now well above pre-pandemic trajectory.
We're seeing serious wage pressure in leisure and hospitality, consistent with anecdotal reports. Avg. earnings for nonsupervisors up 37 cents/hour in June, and more than $1.50 over past year.
Despite drop early in pandemic, their wages are now also above pre-crisis trend.
Notably, though, average weekly hours fell, both overall and for leisure and hospitality. That's surprising in an environment where employers can't find enough workers.
Read 14 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
30 Jun
Recent initial claims overstate the actual number of individuals entering the regular UI system in California by *two-thirds* per latest @CAPolicyLab:
capolicylab.org/publications/j… Image
Note that this is not about fraud, and it's not about people getting denied payments. It is (primarily) about people filing "additional claims," either when they re-enter UI after a period of work or after their benefits "chain" gets broken (after a payment delay, for example).
Meanwhile, more than 90% of new claims by individuals in CA were for people entering their second (or greater) spell of unemployment during the crisis. Shows the churn of people into and out of jobs during the pandemic.
(I wrote about this in March:
nytimes.com/2021/03/18/bus…) Image
Read 6 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
25 Jun
Personal income fell 2% in May. Spending flat. But both above prepandemic levels.
The drop in income was driven by a decline in government transfers (mostly the end of the direct checks under the American Rescue Plan). Wage and salary income rose, though more slowly than in April.
Spending on goods fell and spending on services rose, but we still haven't seen anything close to a wholesale reversal of the big pandemic shifts in spending. Have to see what happens this summer.
Read 10 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
4 Jun
Job growth picked up in May, but was still weaker than in March. Big-picture, we're still down 7.6 million jobs from before the pandemic.
Remote work continuing to fall as more offices reopen. 16.6% of workers were remote in May, down from peak of 35.4%. 30% of professional workers, down from 57.4%.
The number of workers reporting that they are on temporary layoff fell below 2 million for the first time since the pandemic began. Permanent layoffs also falling, but more slowly.
Read 13 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
4 Jun
U.S. employers added 559,000 jobs in May. The unemployment rate fell to 5.8%.
nytimes.com/2021/06/04/bus…
Very small upward revisions to March and Aril. Net gain of 27,000 jobs vs previous estimates.
Unemployment rate fell for "good" reasons in that employment was up, unemployment was down. But labor force was basically flat (actually down slightly), which will add fuel to "labor shortage" concerns.
Read 5 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
3 Jun
Is inflation really "transitory" as the Fed insists? Will labor shortages ease by fall? Can workers expect more raises?
I can't tell you any of that. But I *can* tell you what indicators to watch in this strange moment for the U.S. economy.
nytimes.com/2021/06/03/bus…
1. Prices are up, but mostly in categories with clear links to the pandemic. The question is whether it spreads. (Although, as @ConstanceHunter reminded me: "Transitory does not mean it's not disruptive.")
It's tempting to create ad hoc baskets of goods (ex-leisure, ex-autos, ex-... other stuff that doesn't fit my narrative), but it's easy to wind up cherry-picking, intentionally or otherwise.
Read 22 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @bencasselman has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @bencasselman!

Read all threads by @bencasselman

:(