It is "Investing 101" that when you buy a stock, you are essentially owner of a business. I know this and liberally parrot it to anyone who wants to listen.
I realized a few months ago that I myself never probably walked the talk. Thread.
2/ This finally occurred to me when an interested buyer showed up to take a minority stake (~20-30%) in "MBI Deep Dives".
As I own 100% ownership of MBI Deep Dives, I finally had to think about valuing my own business.
3/ The buyer wasn't a random rich person trying to buy a stake, but a strategic one who I believe could unlock value.
But considering I just launched my business in September 2020, I was initially at best lukewarm since it just felt too early to "value" my biz.
4/ My wife was perhaps more intrigued. She has always felt uncomfortable that I have taken a humungous student loan for b-school to come to the US.
She encouraged me to give it a proper thought before saying No to the buyer and reminded this could be my ticket to debt free life
5/ So I replied I'm open to the idea, and the buyer gave me some initial range of valuation.
I did some number crunching and his suggested range didn't feel terribly unfair, just needed some small tweaks.
5/ I asked 3 of my well-wishers on fintwit. While they did not outright suggest yes/no to the deal, it was clear they were not excited as they alluded it's just too early.
Then one of them was kind enough to connect me to someone who wrote a non-investing newsletter for 10 years
6/ After connecting with this person, I had a good gut check. I realized there is non-negligible probability that I may accidentally massively undervalue my biz.
I convinced my wife that we don't need to worry about my student loan. The deal was off (skipping some details here)
7/ The whole process consisted of a few sleepless nights and lots of soul searching, what-ifs, and probable regrets.
I had my eureka moment then: "Ah, so this is how it feels when you own a business, not a stock."
8/ I thought about the stock I most recently sold: $ISRG.
On one weekend, I read a piece on delta variant which made me uncomfortable with the potential recovery timeline implications for ISRG. The valuation already seemed a bit elevated even without delta variant concerns.
9/ I read two more pieces on delta variant during the weekend and my discomfort grew even further.
Then I opened my model and played with my assumptions and felt difficult to generate HSD return. I sold the stock first thing on Monday morning.
10/ There was no gut wrenching what ifs or sleepless nights involved. It felt very transactional, kinda how you feel if you own "stock", not business.
11/ Now that I know what a visceral feeling it is to think about selling a *business* you own, I doubt whether I can recreate that in public market.
There'll always be an invisible asymptote in terms of what it means to own a biz in a public market vs the one you fully own.
12/ Some may argue it's not warranted since I've zero *control* over my portfolio companies and unlike my biz, my cost basis is not zero.
On the flipside, some of the founders/CEOs are probably operating much better biz at a much better manner than I am.
13/ Whatever it is, I believe even if it's not possible to recreate that feeling, the closer I can get, the better shot I have to become a better long-term investor.
If you feel some pain and a tinge of sadness to part your stocks in public market, you'd realize you own a biz.
End/ Owning a business, and not a stock may deceptively seem "Investing 101", but in reality it is the final frontier.
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One of my followers recently mentioned to me a bear case for Etsy and asked me to take a look at 2020 10-k.
Let me first briefly mention his bear case and then share my thoughts.
2/ The crux of the bear case lies on the noticeable drop in year 2 of 2017 buyer cohort.
Unlike the cohorts in 2013-16 when buyer retention was hovering around 40-45%, 2017 cohort had ~35% retention.
3/ Let me first acknowledge that I didn't notice this before the follower mentioned it to me.
Why?
When I wrote my deep dive, I had 2019 10-k in hand, so the cohort data I saw had until 2016 buyer cohorts. While I scrolled 2020 10-k before, I didn't notice this drop.
I started investing in 2013. Not in the US, but in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh market reached a stratospheric level in 2010 which is yet to be crossed after 11 years. The index is still ~20% below 2010 peak.
2/ I was a Senior in college in 2013 and decided to major in Finance. I thought I should get into investing.
When I started, the market experienced ~60% drawdown. Even though I had no clue what I was doing, it was hard to go wrong when you invest in such a market.
3/ After graduation, I got a job in research which definitely helped me understand investing a bit better.
Bangladesh market is almost entirely driven by retail investors as institutional investor base is pretty weak. In fact, most institutional investors behave like retail.
Another decent quarter, but FCF guidance for full year is slightly softer than earlier which perhaps led the stock to ~7% decline in AH. But after listening to the call, any potential concern related to FCF should evaporate.
Here are my notes.
2/ Revenue met high end of the guidance for the quarter. Low end of the topline guidance for the full year was increased, and so did margins.
But as mentioned earlier, FCF mid-point guidance for FY decreased from $1.61 Bn to $1.54 Bn.
3/ Why did FCF guidance fall?
ADSK used to have multi-year Enterprise Business Agreement (EBA) for which they would get paid cash upfront, but in exchange EBAs would receive ~10% discount.
ADSK is still doing multi-year EBAs, but switching to annual billings, so less cash...
“It isn’t that I don’t understand software products, but I don’t know how that industry is going to develop over 10 or 20 years… so anything that’s rapidly developing that has lots of change embodied in it, by my definition, I won’t understand.”
2/ Two companies that I recently studied ( $CRWD and $ROKU) reminded me of that Buffett quote.
Both are run by founders, have executed incredibly well over last few years and enjoyed secular tailwinds on their back. They were nimble, aggressive, and eating incumbents’ share.
3/ Both companies are valued in a way that assumes they will coast through the next 5-10 years.
But when you look at the rate of change in their respective industries, it makes you think whether such assumptions will indeed hold.
One of my core thesis for $Etsy is their ability to scale the brand in international markets. Building two-sided marketplace is not easy, but to do it in multiple countries is even more difficult.
But Etsy might just pull it off.
2/ In 2Q’20, international was 32% of total GMS. In 2Q’21, it reached 41%.
Important to remember how Etsy defines international. If either buyer or seller is outside the US, it is considered international.
3/ When both buyer and seller is in the same country outside the US, that’s considered “domestic international”.
In 1Q’21, Etsy mentioned “International domestic” GMS grew 2x faster than overall revenue.