Interesting pattern in #elxn44vote: 21 ridings have CPC+PPC vote shares above the LPC or NDP winning share.

This doesn't imply CPC would have won if PPC didn't exist, of course. But it's interesting.
A non-trivial number of seats were at stake. Even if just a relatively small share of the PPC vote went to CPC. #elxn44vote
Of course, "vote splitting" is a much larger issue between LPC and NDP than between CPC and now PPC.
Update from the CPC+PPC results above, this morning there are now 25 seats where CPC+PPC > winning party's share.

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More from @trevortombe

15 Sep
Today's data: inflation! 📈 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…

CPI up 4.1% in August compared to last year. Highest since 2003. Excluding food/energy (which are highly volatile), prices up 3%. #cdnecon
Important to remember, though, that much of the higher inflation we've seen in recent months is in part due to drops during COVID and prices returning to trend today means above-average inflation since last year's levels are lower.

Here's an illustration of that.
Also important to remember that the central bank looks to several measures to understand inflation pressures. Here are three of their main metrics. One exceeds the target range, the two others still don't.
Read 7 tweets
2 Sep
Seeing some claim that Canada would need 3% real GDP growth for the CPC plan to balance in ten years to work out.

I strongly disagree. Agree or disagree with the goal, it's entirely credible. I'll explain. #Elxn44 #cdnpoli
First, obviously some negative event (recession/etc) might arrive before 2031 and throw things off. But with that caveat in mind:

If federal revenues grow with the economy, then *nominal* growth of 3.8% (real of 1.8%) would result in ~565b in revenue by 2031.
How'd I get that? Well the PBO baseline projection for 2025 is 452.1 billion. And 452.1*1.038^6 = 565 billion.
Read 9 tweets
12 Jun
Today's vaccine update 💉

- Shots reported today*: 510,910 (new record!)
- Share 2nd shots: 64%- Age 12+ w/ a Shot: 72.9%
- Age 18+ w/ a Shot: 75.1% (est)
- Shots per 100 people: 74.3
- Inventory: 7.8 days

More: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/
In total, Canada is now up to 28.2 million shots given -- which is 89.9% of the total 31.4 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 2,546,940 doses have been delivered to provinces.

And so far 4.0 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.
The latest estimates of vaccinations by age:

- Those 60+: 89.8% have at least one dose and 26.5% have two
- 18-59: it's 68.7% and 8.7%
- Adults: 75.1% and 14.1%

Note: data comes with a 6-13 day lag; these are my own estimates
Read 15 tweets
11 Jun
Today's vaccine update 💉

- Shots reported today*: 471,409 (63% 2nd doses)
- Total shots: 27,729,183
- Age 12+ w/ a Shot: 72.3%
- Age 18+ w/ a Shot: 73.8% (est)
- Shots per 100 people: 73.0
- Inventory: 7.3 days

More: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/

* Missing YT (not reported yet)
The latest estimates of vaccinations by age:

- Those 60+: 89.4% have at least one dose and 21.0% have two
- 18-59: it's 67.0% and 9.0%
- Adults: 73.8% and 12.7%

Note: data comes with a 6-13 day lag; these are my own estimates
In total, Canada is now up to 27.7 million shots given -- which is 90.4% of the total 30.7 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 1,925,050 doses have been delivered to provinces.

And so far 3.7 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.
Read 13 tweets
10 Jun
Today's vaccine update:

- Shots reported today*: 401,833 (59% 2nd doses)
- Total shots: 27,257,480
- Age 12+ w/ a Shot: 71.8%
- Age 18+ w/ a Shot: 73.6% (est)
- Shots per 100 people: 71.7
- Inventory: 7.8 days

More: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/

* Missing YT (not reported yet)
The latest estimates of vaccinations by age:

- Those 60+: 89.4% have at least one dose and 19.4% have two
- 18-59: it's 66.6% and 8.3%
- Adults: 73.6% and 11.7%

Note: data comes with a 6-13 day lag; these are my own estimates
In total, Canada is now up to 27.3 million shots given -- which is 90.0% of the total 30.3 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 2,141,010 doses have been delivered to provinces.

And so far 3.4 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.
Read 14 tweets
9 Jun
Today's vaccine update for Alberta:

-Everyone: 57.3% have at least one dose and 13.4% have two
-Age 12+: 67.2% and 15.7%
-Age 20+: 68% and 17.3%

Stage 2 target: 60% of 12+ w/ 1+ doses (achieved!)

Stage 3 target: 70% of 12+ w/ 1+ doses
And here's the pace of Alberta's vaccination over time. Today's rate of 34,636 compares to an average of 45,155 over the past week. And today, 9,708 were first doses and 24,928 were second.
Going forward, Alberta will remove all provincial public health restrictions two weeks after 70% of those age 12+ have at least one dose.

At its current pace, that share is reached on June 15 so full re-opening would occur on June 29.

We reach 50% fully vaccinated by July 18
Read 4 tweets

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