G a a h Profile picture
22 Sep, 8 tweets, 3 min read
3.5 channel breaks in 2013, reversal requires 4 total channel breaks, totaling 1 entire sub-cycle.
2.5 channel breaks in the correction we are currently in, much softer than 2013 even retracing -55% since the last top.
After testing in the Neutral Zone, retracement to the stealth point (50% of the REFERENCE CHANNEL) historically occurs.

This point is important as it is where market sentiment turned, as well as being the daily close of the first dip and also the bar close of the Monthly chart.
The Neutral Zone is the top of the Resistance. After breaking through, it will be the reference support, as it is the lower range of the new Reference Channel for the trend.
In 2013 you can clearly see the top of the resistance being confirmed as support after breaking through. This is the target after the move to the stealth point around $37,000
The difference between the channel breaks is seen above the Neutral Zone. In 2013 the movement within the sub-cycle was larger compared to the current one, yet it was not Reversal of the main trend.
Therefore, it is still fully open for a retest in the quoted range for the price resumption to move forward, thus forming a bullish PIVOT after a few weeks of highs.
[Current Momentum can technically be seen in 2013]
#Bitcoin #BTC

Read also in a quick and direct way at Quicktake:
cryptoquant.com/quicktake/614a…

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More from @gaah_im

23 Sep
The best time to buy #Bitcoin is now!

The ratio MVRV is defined as the market capitalization of an asset divided by the realized capitalization. With this indicator it is possible to map the behavior in previous cycles and define the revenue of the current moment.

Thread👇👇 Image
1. Ranking the phases of the cycles in sequence of 1-3 starting with NUMBER 1 after the start of the bull market and the top meeting in the middle of the bullish cycle.
2. There is a historical moment in the middle of the bull run, where it always looks like the end of the valuation, however it is just a short-term top in the middle of the bullish run. By hitting that top and offering the best buying moment within the bull market, 👇 Image
Read 16 tweets
21 Sep
The yellow dotted arrow shows the complete move, it advances 0.5 of the channel in a complete move.

The breakout attempt above 50% led to the trap, and is discounted later in the PIVOT to miss the main bottom of the last few pattern moves. Image
Breaking through sets up a new full move and hits $37k, at the stealth point of the price rebound.

It has only walked 0.5 of the move (the discount at 50% and at the PIVOT). This moment is crucial for the Bulls to advance above $44,400 and have a daily close. Image
If this does not happen, the full move must be completed.

The quick turn around after the dip to $40k has a high probability of being Short positions.

Interest at this time in opening short positions should increase as sentiment is in fear and speculators take advantage. Image
Read 4 tweets
21 Sep
About Management and Risk, follow the Thread👇

1. Due to the Macro environment in the chain and the cyclical moment that #Bitcoin is in, I am leaving the more aggressive Risk Management in the Private Fund (BANCA2) that I manage.
2. Today we have positions in over 10 different crypto-actives, including the largest position in #Bitcoin .

The targets set are according to the expansions of my operating model, so they will only be hit when the market wants them.
3. First target in 2 #Bitcoin operations were reached around $51,000 - $52,000

Still the Private Investment Fund has 45-50% of the dollar cash available for operational, plus that cash will go up if it needs it, as there is more liquidity in the Fund for this next leg up.
Read 9 tweets
20 Sep
1. The number of transactions occurring on the #Bitcoin network still below the yellow average, signals little movement on the chain. If this number stays above the yellow average indicates new dormant participants moving in, volatility in the price is expected. Image
2. Already the average number of tokens transferred on the network points to another new top, followed by 3 tops in sequence since trapping at major support. The latest record points to an average of 42.15 #BTC transferred per transaction. Image
3. Long-time participants in the chain continue to move, the high volume and low frequency on the network indicate that short-term holders are staying out of the market. Image
Read 6 tweets
8 Sep
1/5 Miners back accumulate from the correction to the support at $30,000, there were miners selling during the correction, but only to supplement cash as there was the ban in China and then they had to relocate to a different location.

Thread👇👇
I recently posted the pattern identified in the MPI, which shows when miners sell.

2/5 The Reserves show the time when they offered to sell, around $25,000 to $30,000 right at the beginning of the year.👇

It was a big, massive sell off, returning the Reserves to December 2019 levels.

3/5 Compared to the recent sell-off one can conclude that the miners tend to continue accumulation as the MPI is also in the yellow phase.👇
Read 5 tweets
7 Sep
HODLERS stronger than ever! #Bitcoin

1/5 SCA in record after record, HODLERS never stopped buying, they are accumulating more than ever.

Long-term holders aged 2-3 years and 12-18 months continue to accumulate strongly, as reflected in the SCA.

Follow the Thread👇👇
2/5 This indicator is the value of the sum of unspent coins, transaction output in live days, and their value.

Since testing support at $30,000 these guys have flipped their hand to buy.
3/5 We should keep an eye on holders aged 3-6 and 6-12 months, as @DanielJoe916 mapped out recently and made this part clear, they have absorbed practically all liquidity from the correction with long term holders.

Read 6 tweets

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