G a a h Profile picture
23 Sep, 16 tweets, 7 min read
The best time to buy #Bitcoin is now!

The ratio MVRV is defined as the market capitalization of an asset divided by the realized capitalization. With this indicator it is possible to map the behavior in previous cycles and define the revenue of the current moment.

Thread👇👇
1. Ranking the phases of the cycles in sequence of 1-3 starting with NUMBER 1 after the start of the bull market and the top meeting in the middle of the bullish cycle.
2. There is a historical moment in the middle of the bull run, where it always looks like the end of the valuation, however it is just a short-term top in the middle of the bullish run. By hitting that top and offering the best buying moment within the bull market, 👇
that moment is defined as Sequence 1.

3. Sequence 2 will only occur after a top is made in the Red Region (4.5-6.0), historically in all previous bullish cycles this range marks the final top of the bullish cycle.

4. The "Bottom" is when Sequence 3 occurs, 👇
this moment happens only when #Bitcoin is in a cyclical bear market. It is only signaled for a brief moment and historically marked the bottoms of the bear market.

5. In 2011 there were 3 mid-cycle corrections, with 3 buying opportunities during the run. 👇
This moment is classified in sequence 1. High volatility caused all the tops to go beyond the Red Region.

6. 2013 was just a single correction in the middle of the bull run, approximately -75% deep. Practically a bear market in the middle of the bullish cycle. 👇
It is 210 days sideways after the big dip and then recovers the last top.

7. Already in 2017, similar to 2011 in the aspect of corrections/tops, there are also 3 major retracements in the middle of the bull run, ending the bullish cycle only after touching the Red Region 👇
at least once.

8. The 3.70 level in the MVRV indicator is the standard point of distortion between the two ratio metrics, in this case signaling near top. The same behavior in the current cycle can be seen in 2017, where the first touch higher before the end-of-cycle top👇
was exactly at the default level (3.70).

9. The high probability in question suggests a new ATH in prices, such as a new top in the Red Region in #MVRV. Sequence 1 is easily observed and only after a new top will we move on to sequence 2, as has been shown historically.
10. The current valuation cycle with respect to duration time is very similar to 2017, the previous bull runs (2011/2013) were faster compared to all cycles so far.
11. Excluding the time factor and taking into consideration only the behavior between the ranges, following the 2013 pattern it is still possible to see 2 new tops in the Region in Red. If this happens it will be altogether 3 major corrections in the current valuation cycle.
12. 2017 had the longest duration in the bull run period. Compared to the current cycle it is easy to observe sequence 1 and the next direction of price to continue for sequence 2.
13. You can use some data to determine the distribution of long-term holders within a bull market. According to @cryptoquant_com Analyst @DanielJoe916 the price rises as long term holders distribute. 👇

We are at the historical moment of re-accumulation, the next step is distribution following a parabolic move.

@DanielJoe makes the current moment clear through the behavior of Miners, they are important as they hold about 8.8% of the total #BTC supply.👇
If Miners are accumulating and not selling strongly, it is not a bear market, but opportunity still within a bull market.👇

If you enjoyed the review please be sure to give it a like/RT, it helps a lot with engagement. Also, don't forget to follow me and follow @DanielJoe916 for further updates. Count on me! 🙌🤜🤛

Read quickly and directly from Quicktake:
cryptoquant.com/quicktake/614c…

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More from @gaah_im

22 Sep
3.5 channel breaks in 2013, reversal requires 4 total channel breaks, totaling 1 entire sub-cycle.
2.5 channel breaks in the correction we are currently in, much softer than 2013 even retracing -55% since the last top.
After testing in the Neutral Zone, retracement to the stealth point (50% of the REFERENCE CHANNEL) historically occurs.

This point is important as it is where market sentiment turned, as well as being the daily close of the first dip and also the bar close of the Monthly chart.
Read 8 tweets
21 Sep
The yellow dotted arrow shows the complete move, it advances 0.5 of the channel in a complete move.

The breakout attempt above 50% led to the trap, and is discounted later in the PIVOT to miss the main bottom of the last few pattern moves. Image
Breaking through sets up a new full move and hits $37k, at the stealth point of the price rebound.

It has only walked 0.5 of the move (the discount at 50% and at the PIVOT). This moment is crucial for the Bulls to advance above $44,400 and have a daily close. Image
If this does not happen, the full move must be completed.

The quick turn around after the dip to $40k has a high probability of being Short positions.

Interest at this time in opening short positions should increase as sentiment is in fear and speculators take advantage. Image
Read 4 tweets
21 Sep
About Management and Risk, follow the Thread👇

1. Due to the Macro environment in the chain and the cyclical moment that #Bitcoin is in, I am leaving the more aggressive Risk Management in the Private Fund (BANCA2) that I manage.
2. Today we have positions in over 10 different crypto-actives, including the largest position in #Bitcoin .

The targets set are according to the expansions of my operating model, so they will only be hit when the market wants them.
3. First target in 2 #Bitcoin operations were reached around $51,000 - $52,000

Still the Private Investment Fund has 45-50% of the dollar cash available for operational, plus that cash will go up if it needs it, as there is more liquidity in the Fund for this next leg up.
Read 9 tweets
20 Sep
1. The number of transactions occurring on the #Bitcoin network still below the yellow average, signals little movement on the chain. If this number stays above the yellow average indicates new dormant participants moving in, volatility in the price is expected. Image
2. Already the average number of tokens transferred on the network points to another new top, followed by 3 tops in sequence since trapping at major support. The latest record points to an average of 42.15 #BTC transferred per transaction. Image
3. Long-time participants in the chain continue to move, the high volume and low frequency on the network indicate that short-term holders are staying out of the market. Image
Read 6 tweets
8 Sep
1/5 Miners back accumulate from the correction to the support at $30,000, there were miners selling during the correction, but only to supplement cash as there was the ban in China and then they had to relocate to a different location.

Thread👇👇
I recently posted the pattern identified in the MPI, which shows when miners sell.

2/5 The Reserves show the time when they offered to sell, around $25,000 to $30,000 right at the beginning of the year.👇

It was a big, massive sell off, returning the Reserves to December 2019 levels.

3/5 Compared to the recent sell-off one can conclude that the miners tend to continue accumulation as the MPI is also in the yellow phase.👇
Read 5 tweets
7 Sep
HODLERS stronger than ever! #Bitcoin

1/5 SCA in record after record, HODLERS never stopped buying, they are accumulating more than ever.

Long-term holders aged 2-3 years and 12-18 months continue to accumulate strongly, as reflected in the SCA.

Follow the Thread👇👇
2/5 This indicator is the value of the sum of unspent coins, transaction output in live days, and their value.

Since testing support at $30,000 these guys have flipped their hand to buy.
3/5 We should keep an eye on holders aged 3-6 and 6-12 months, as @DanielJoe916 mapped out recently and made this part clear, they have absorbed practically all liquidity from the correction with long term holders.

Read 6 tweets

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