In Richmond, BC, and Markham, Ontario, the Conservative vote plunged in Canada’s most Chinese electorates. Ousted Richmond MP Kenny Chiu had doors slammed in his face. He blames "disinformation" and "lies" abt his stances on HK and China scmp.com/news/china/dip… via @scmpnews
He suffered a hefty 8.4% prelim swing. Fellow Richmond Tory Alice Wong suffered worse: 11.9%. That dwarfed the BC and national trends
Across Canada, in Markham-Unionville, Cda's most Chinese electorate of all, the Tory MP suffered 7% swing, and the Liberals picked up a whopping 10.3%.
That defied Ontario trend that saw the Lib vote down 2.7% and the Tory vote up 2 points!
So the question has to be asked: did the Tories pay the price for their tough stance on China?
I get that there are no smoking guns in politics. But these swings, in this small handful of Chinese majority/near-majority electorates, look pretty extreme and abnormal
You can cut the China theory two ways: voters legitimately rejected the Tories tough-on-China platform, or voters were illegitimately swayed by disinfo (local and frn). Take your pick
But either way, I think the phenomenon, that Tories suffered particularly in heavily Chinese ridings, is real. Here is a thread that considers the same issue (I didn't see it before I filed, but it seems to come to same conclusion)
And I think you have to be very careful about how these outcomes are framed: bottom line is that Cdns can vote how they like. It's totally valid if some rejected the Tory stance on China. But did disinformation swing it? If so, who was behind it? Those are valid questions, too
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This is it!! #MengWanzhou hearing in US federal court in Brooklyn begins!! She is appearing via video from Vancouver. She confirms her presence. Court gets off to an awkward start when judge calls her Ms Wang, and has to be corrected....
Judge explains she has been charged with conspiracy to commit bank fraud, bank fraud, conspiracy to commit wire fraud and wire fraud. Meng says she understands the charges
"How do you plead to the charges?" MENG: "NOT GUILTY"
A thread ensues: Canada has a handful of federal electorates that are ethnic Chinese majority/near-majority seats, all clustered around Richmond BC & Markham ON. I've gone thru #Elxn44 numbers & all experienced a plunge in Tory support, large and remarkable in context IMO. 2/
The context is this: there was no big loss in Tory vote share across Canada (-0.5%), in BC (-0.7%) or Ontario (+1.9%). Where there were losses, the PPC often gained. Anyway. Here goes: /3
In Steveston-Richmond East (47% Chinese), Con vote share was -8.1% and Lib share +7.5%. A comfortable Tory win in 2019, now a comfortable Lib win. "But this seat often yo-yos," you say. Well sure, but let's look next door 4/
You know, there are still about 3,400 mail-in ballots to be counted in #VancouverGranville, where Liberal Taleeb Noormohamed currently leads by 258 votes
Only 45% of the 6275 special ballots have been counted
An addendum: I feel I should explain the timeline of how I finally got hold of these ATIP results, which were delivered in the form of an 85-page PDF which was burned onto a DVD, which was sent to me in the mail, which is a TOTALLY NORMAL way to send a small digital document