A thread ensues: Canada has a handful of federal electorates that are ethnic Chinese majority/near-majority seats, all clustered around Richmond BC & Markham ON. I've gone thru #Elxn44 numbers & all experienced a plunge in Tory support, large and remarkable in context IMO. 2/
The context is this: there was no big loss in Tory vote share across Canada (-0.5%), in BC (-0.7%) or Ontario (+1.9%). Where there were losses, the PPC often gained. Anyway. Here goes: /3
In Steveston-Richmond East (47% Chinese), Con vote share was -8.1% and Lib share +7.5%. A comfortable Tory win in 2019, now a comfortable Lib win. "But this seat often yo-yos," you say. Well sure, but let's look next door 4/
In Richmond Centre (58% Chinese, and second-most Chinese seat in Cda), Con vote share was down a humongous -11.9%. Lib share was up +10.9%. A rock solid Tory seat held by veteran MP Alice Wong with a 20+% margin (!!) in 2019 is now a possible/likely Lib win. /5
This isn't just a BC phenomenon. Markham-Unionville, ON, is the most Chinese seat in Canada, 64%. The Tory MP there Bob Saroya won with an easy 10.5% margin in 2019. On Monday he got smashed, vote share -7%, Lib share +7.6% /6
Next door, Markham-Thornhill (40% Chinese). A cosy Lib seat with a 19% margin in 2019. But Tory vote plunged anyway. Now the margin is 35+%!! Con vote share -8.3%, Lib +7.6% /7
Scarborough-Agincourt (45% Chinese). Another Lib seat held with a 13.5% margin in 2019. Now that is more than doubled: 27.2% margin over the Tories on Monday. Con -7.9% Lib +5.8% 8/
What makes this all striking is how specific it was to Chinese seats. In Toronto, just a couple electorates away, the Tories flipped the Liberal seat of King Vaughan, Con +1.9% Lib -2.1%. This was NOT an outlier. This was just abt the exact shift in vote share across Ontario 9/
You could debate infinitely about the reasons for all this. In Steveston-Richmond East, Kenny Chiu blames a PRC-endorsed disinformation campaign. We'll never know for sure. But I think this much is certain... /10
There was a huge slump in Tory support in Chinese communities, and in seats where these communities were sizeable enough, they lost seats because of it
Haha I forgot to plug the story I wrote yesterday that covers some of this ground. Read it! Share it! Buy an @SCMPNews subscription! scmp.com/news/china/dip…
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