So where are we again in the $TSLA European Q3 delivery cycle?

Why, we are at the point where "in transit" inventory has become local, but not all those local cars have been matched to order yet. So close to end of quarter...

Time to get out the *** DISCOUNTS !!! ***
These M3 LR for Swiss market are now labeled as "demonstration model" even though they have no miles on them.

The LR MIC was already 2000 CHF cheaper due to Chinese battery and slightly lower range.

Now the discount is almost 4000 CHF or over 7%!
Another approach is to sell real demo models, or test drive cars, with some miles on them, at discount.

That is what is happening in UK right now:

Discount is about 7% for LR, 5% for P models, all produced in Q2.
Don't get too excited you $TSLAQ folks, this is what has happened last 3 quarters too, and if anything this quarter is not so bad.

Still looks like they essentially sold out, and $TSLA knows exactly what discount to apply to move the rest.

Price elasticity and what not.

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More from @CallerNaked

23 Sep
The $TSLA European Q3 deliveries look set to prove one of the main $TSLAQ bear arguments, making the record-setting absolute deliveries irrelevant:

💠Q3 reveals the cannibalization of M3 by MY.
💠New model pipeline is now effectively empty.

A lethal combination!
Norway alone is soaking up 1/3rd of the 15k MY that @TroyTeslike estimates for all of Europe for Q3.

This can be attributed to pent-up orders that were supposed to be gradually filled from Brandenburg factory. So this won't be repeated in Q4.

But Norway is always special case.
How about Netherlands, where subsidies have been stable throughout 2021?

There, M3 registrations have fallen to the bottom of top 20. $TSLA overall only manages 6th place at < 6.0% market share.

Netherlands is wealthy and prosperous relative to European average.
Read 7 tweets
24 Mar
$TSLA Q1 deliveries in 🇪🇺:

Most data points towards "ok" quarter:
🔹Ship tracker
🔹Deliveries trackers by country
🔹National $TSLA sites
🔹my own #SGF reports

But this "ok" quarter seems to come at a cost of unsustainable one-offs. Not to mention

🔹Price cuts

Thread:
Ship tracker:

Bulls claim "record" 10 ships to 🇪🇺, beating 9 for Q4 2020 and 7 for Q4 2019.

This may lead to a record in UK, which got RHD supply from 3 boats from Shanghai, in answer to *new* BEV incentives.

But rest of 🇪🇺 had to do with 7 ships vs 9 last Q (7 SFO + 2 SHG).
National delivery trackers:

NL+NO+SP seems more in line with Q1 or Q3 2020.
Far cry from Q4 2019 or Q4 2020.

Country $TSLA delivery data shows "ok" JAN+FEB, but declining market share. And definitely worse product mix as S and X have become negligible.
Read 9 tweets
7 Mar
Elon tweets about FSD not simply to pump the stock.

Seems like with all those recent price cuts, FSD makes the difference between selling 2020 inventory at a profit of a loss, both in case of new or used car.

Let's look at just one particular *used* VIN in 🇨🇭 : Image
There are still 17 used M3 on offer in 🇨🇭, and 6 of them are loaded with FSD. In early February that FSD option was basically valued at zero.

At same time only 2 new inventory car had FSD option, see earlier tweet

By Feb 15th *none* of the 120 new inventory M3 had FSD.

The option reappeared couple of days later, and as of this moment 36 of the 166 listed cars have FSD option!

Before only P specs had FSD. Now 12P, 24 AWD and even 1 SR+ have it.
Read 6 tweets
19 Aug 20
Finally some life springing back to the EU $TSLA Q3 delivery scene!

Inventory had been emptied out by end of Q2 and the first RORO unloaded only 2 weeks ago, so we could not really expect much before.

Will it be business as usual for rest of Q3?

Thread 1/14
Most inventory for new cars shown on 14 Tesla EU sites still says "in transit". Far fewer cars have a city "site" label attached to them.

For example in CH about 30 M3 (out of 100+) are attached to either Zurich or Geneva. 8 out of 13 S and 5 out of 15 X also "on site".

2/14
Geneva showroom showing only one 3 and one X. Expect S to be added soon, because why not with all that inventory?

In Q2 as M3 got delivered used S and X were added to Tesla website offer. Remember how they liquidated them by dropping price on those *every day*.

3/14
Read 14 tweets
7 Jul 20
Dear $TSLAQ please take your eyes off the stock price and back onto the one single item that matters rn:

CASH ON HAND!

Even if we have no direct reading we can infer qualitatively from the delivery report, current inventory levels and regional disparities in that inventory.
As @fly4dat has extensively reported, EU Q2 deliveries were weak.
China +/- as expected.

US stronger than even @TroyTeslike expected but then @Paul91701736 gives us proof of inventory in US.
As I reported before $TSLA dropped prices on used cars in its inventory to liquidate by EOQ. Needed that cash!

Today, between D, FR and CH, $TSLA lists a total of *7* available cars, all of them used. That is nothing. No new models, only used cars.
Read 10 tweets
25 Jan 20
Various tweets and PR by $WDI management increases my confidence in the "muddle through" scenario:

🔹Admit that "bad things" happened,
🔹but impact was not "material"
🔹and "it will not happen again".

Just yesterday MB officially started this narrative.
"Some market requirement" means that BAFIN and retail investor pressure is finally forcing some change.

Last Wednesday Eichelmann seemed to allow for "wrongdoing", but that it would not be "material", allowing MB to stay.
I can now refine previous scenario:



🔹BAFIN role will be kept hidden while
🔹Eichelmann will take credit for forcing change,
🔹acting as supervisor of MB, much like Robyn Denholm is supposed to supervise @elonmusk
Read 6 tweets

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