Thread by @CallerNaked

The $TSLA European Q3 deliveries look set to prove one of the main $TSLAQ bear arguments, making the record-setting absolute deliveries irrelevant:

💠Q3 reveals the cannibalization of M3 by MY.
💠New model pipeline is now effectively empty.

A lethal combination!

Norway alone is soaking up 1/3rd of the 15k MY that @TroyTeslike estimates for all of Europe for Q3.

This can be attributed to pent-up orders that were supposed to be gradually filled from Brandenburg factory. So this won't be repeated in Q4.

But Norway is always special case.

How about Netherlands, where subsidies have been stable throughout 2021?

There, M3 registrations have fallen to the bottom of top 20. $TSLA overall only manages 6th place at < 6.0% market share.

Netherlands is wealthy and prosperous relative to European average.

What explains this poor showing in NL?

(1.2% of @TroyTeslike EU estimate vs. 4% of EU population)

💠Dutch sense of value for money (not same as being stingy)?
💠Brand destruction due to negative press?
💠Operational issues?
💠Tax rule limitations for company cars?

And why is MY not selling better than M3 in Spain, the other country for which we have daily registration data?

Seems like price tag is the main issue here: look how Audi is doing relatively poorly, while Kia, Renault and Hyundai are top 5 brands. Very different from Norway!

Even @TroyTeslike sees a (small) sequential drop in absolute Q4 EU deliveries over Q3, integrating some cannibalization.

If pent-up MY demand had any impact on Q3 then @TroyTeslike 's Q4 numbers for Europe are too optimistic.

Only China has the potential to compensate.

Can Musk stoop even lower over there? Sure he can, but sequential drops in US and EU in Q4 over Q3 would weigh on investor sentiment regardless.

$TSLAQ