One day, when I have time and an army of interns, I’m going to map out on a big wall all of @RudyHavenstein threads from the genesis tweet. If you aren’t following closely you’ll miss that this account is a work of complex literary art woven around multiple narrative arcs 1/
The interwoven threads include a caustic commentary of the corrupting of the financial system, lack of accountability of bankers in 2008, Epstein’s full story, mixed in with art like the epic Fugazzi! and Bridgewater Sausage threads, multi-genre music threads and sub-threads. 2/
There are so many threads on going at any time, some lie dormant for years and come back to life. Rudy somehow keeps on top of it all and accesses relevant parts from years back and brings them back out, drawing people back into the depth of content created and all the various
narrative arcs.
I know I’ve mentioned it before but this is the cleverest account on FinTwit. It’s a massive swirling meta narrative piece of social art, whether that is what he intended or not.
And no, you don’t need to agree with all of it, or even any of it, in order to appreciate the work that goes into it.
One thing I do know, normal FinTwit threads are essentially playing Uno! while Rudy is playing Go…
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What I really don't get about Tether fears is this:
Let's say its right and Tether implodes to zero. What happens to Bitcoin or digital assets? Down 30% immediately? down 50%? down 60% down 80%?
Ok. Well, we just did that (many tokens were down 80%) and guess what? 1/
2/ Life went on. Nothing happened.
If fact, crypto markets do a -70% pretty often and guess what, nothing happens and adoption keeps rising.
When I first learned about Bitfinex's issues BTC was at 6,100. It could now fall 80% and still not hit that.
3/ We all get it but no one here has found a new source of risk the market didn't know.
It has been talked about for 4 years - the people involved! Deltec! the illicit use! the backing isn't 1:1 in cash in a vault guarded by Rottweilers! regulators! blah blah blah blah blah
I know crypto chart takes are 2 a penny these days so mine are equally worthless, but... we all know that log charts are the right way to look at these...1/
Bitcoin seems to have negated the Head and Shoulders pattern, on-chain data suggest huge accumulation and better market dynamics, Metclafes Law valuations are increasing, and time and price have now met the log trend...2/
ETH has also reached the log trend in time and price and looks like it s forming a wedge.
Just adding to this thread.... the rise in the dollar and fall in bond yields is all about a moderation in growth. I think it might lead to a growth scare in Q4.
Macro is ruled by two assets - the US dollar and US treasuries. If they move together they are usually telling us something important. It is time to have them both on your radar screen... 1/
Using the Euro/$ as the proxy for the dollar...there is risk of a very large head and shoulder forming. The dollar tends to rally on economic weakness (and falling yields).
And 10 year rates look like they are going to test the uptrend. If my hunch that H2 is going to be weaker than expected is correct, this trend line will confirm. After all, bonds speak the economic truth.